Nice.

Well, I didn't make it. Hopefully alive when I wake up.

Hmm. still no Danny. I think the wolves ate him.

MartinD is not on my radar really. His vote today looks good to me. I was commenting solely on your day 1 list (which you yourself said did not factor day 2 in it at all). based on day 1 alone, I really did not like that group of votes. On day 2, Martin somewhat redeemed himself, Telle made herself look worse by continue to try to push the focus away from Eaglefan (as one of the Lathum or PB camp).

As I'm sure everyone is aware by now, I obviously look at more than just who places what votes where when I make "gut" decisions, and I know everyone really despises it. But for me it is just as important to see who argued what, when and why as it is the votes themselves. Day 1 during the middle of the day, it just really felt obvious to me that some movement was occurring to save -someone-. I mistakenly read that as an attempt to save ntn on day 1 when I voted, but corrected that with my day 2 vote.

I also want to note that on day 1, Eaglefan was not necessarily in a huge amount of danger closer to the deadline once the PurdueBrad run was made because he had his vote in a location that could be moved if he needed to, plus he was waiting around at the deadline (as I commented that evening clearly) not really participating, but appearing as ready to move his vote if need be. So as I commented earlier in the morning of day 2, that a few people felt better to me then they did on day 1 (such as Lathum and Dubb) based on that vote there.

Since I am talking to myself, I will continue to do so :)

Colors below are based on my belief, so read into it what you will. Dark Blue I trust, Light blue I feel decently about, Red is known wolf, pink I distrust.

Day 1

1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
5 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416), Chief Rum (605), NTNDeacon (707)
3 - PurdueBrad - The Jackal (329), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
1 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335)
7- ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), Alan T (699), PurdueBrad (711), EagleFan (713)
2 - Telle - Autumn (604), Poli (668)


Day 2
7 - PurdueBrad - Lathum (790), hoopsguy (822), Telle (1020), Abe (1045), The Jackal (1050), Lerriuqs (1137), Chief Rum (1166)
9 - EagleFan - Alan T (951), Autumn (969), DaddyTorgo (971), dubb (1014), MartinD (1112), PackerFanatic (1123), Passacaglia (1157), PurdueBrad, Poli
1 - hoopsguy - saldana (1194)
2 - Telle - claphamsa (1285), Barkeep (1291)

So other thoughts in my head.. at some point on day 2, I also wonder if it had to be figured that at some point Eaglefan was going to be a lost cause (if not today, then tomorrow or the next day), and thus later in the day fellow wolves should either vote for him or try not to save him. The other thing I am wondering is with that frame of mind if some of the wolves on day 2 chose to not actively try to save EF, but didn't defend him either, and instead stayed to the side.

Sorry about that, I had to sleep after the day deadline.

I'm here now, will begin processing night results soon.

Yeah.. my only question is... what happened in the night phase :)

Almost done sending out PM's :), it will be up in one minute

Yeah that was no shocker.

Good luck villagers! At least my return to WW was mostly a success - I felt I played well, and no on blew up and called me names (well at least to an extreme) :)

Sorry to see you go, Alan. You were one (of two) people that I thought probably warranted a guard last night. Nice work on the EF play yesterday, given that you had no inside info.

A couple of thoughts:
1.) I have no new information to bring to the table at this time and will wait for awhile to see what others may have up their sleeve. No quick vote this AM for me.
2.) I'm not sure if I'll have access to the site from work, but should be home in plenty of time to post this afternoon if blocked during the day.

I have nothing new to report, though it's a bummer to see Alan gone.

I'm working near home today, though I don't know if that means I'll be home relatively early or not.

you SCUK!

i am apparently incorrect...my attack on you was based on the premise that EF wasnt a wolf, which we now know to be incorrect. I was theorizing he was the villager and you were the wolf, which now appears highly unlikely...you were just using some fuzzy logic, imo, which is very much not like you, and rang some bells for me.

Well there goes one of my trusted players and a semi-defender.

I got nothing except that at least I was consistently awful with my voting between days 1 and 2 I guess.

Yeah, that sucks that we lost Alan -- I was going to vote for him. :p

Now that my trying not to vote for people that are my nemesises/nemesi/how about enemies, has been destroyed, I think this is the third or fourth person to say something to this effect to Hoops this game (I was one, when I discussed tunnel-vision and I'm a little surprised, unless I missed it, that he never floated any other possible theories yesterday than PB is bad [but I need to look back to be sure my memory is correct]). I don't know if I would lynch him on this but it is something to keep an eye on I guess.

You were part of a 5-0 score for PB. Sure, you unvoted him, which is more than what clap did, but it's definitely something that needs to be looked at. Were you online at deadline? If you were, and kept your vote on EF, that's obviously big ups for you.

I have no read on him, but Clap did unvote me too (unless I'm missing the point).

I unvoted him!

get your facts strait!

After going back through the thread, my trust list remains, in order:

Trust (Most to least): Poli, Lathum, Autumn

Needs looked at (tied): Saldana, Martin D

Distrusts (Most to least): Telle, Hoopsguy, Abe, The Jackal

Poli- listened to me on back-to-back days despite me being bad and him good last game. He put that aside and seems to follow logic rather than getting caught up.

Lathum- His role, despite being independent, seems harmless to us now. He never truly pushed for me and even said EF is a solid candidate.

Autumn- Same as Poli, minus some of the fun, dramatic Poli moves.

Saldana/Martin D- vote-based. I didn't love Martin D's day 1 reason but it was day 1. Saldana's late move off of EF to Hoops may be bad (but is voting for Hoops ever bad?)

The Jackal- ALL vote based (but you have to believe I'm good).

Abe- Pinged me somehow yesterday and I can't remember when and the possibly unfortunate voting away from a wolf back-to-back days.

Hoops- I've said it already but I'm not seeing his willingness to look at a lot of different angles, several people have said that his logic seems 'off' this game or he's pushing the village some, the early votes that don't move feels very non-Hoopsian, and Hoops is always on the opposite team as me.

Telle- I've laid it out and I guess it is more vibe than anything but voting record on me twice helps for my peace of mind and that Alan T, known good, also felt the same way.

I don't like night killing or lynching someone who is back from a long hiatus or a new player until the mid game. That sucks.

Ugh - 8 pages of posts to read. That's what I get for re-formatting my computer last night.

Although I do see we got a wolf last night, huzzah!

Now to get down to the nitty gritty of today...

Yeah, you guys have been posting up a storm! Hopefully that means everyone is really into the game and enjoying themselves :)

I am!! oh wait...

and now it just shuts down!

I figure a good place to start is people called out by Alan, who we know was good.

vote telle

Oh goodie! I get to be first!

You know, your vote on me yesterday was pretty much a hit and run. And I don't believe you ever explained why you'd rather go that route than voting for one of the lead contenders. And today you're not offering up anything other than "Well Alan said to do it".

The Jackal and Telle are tops on my suspect list based on voting record. Telle has obviously been tossed around a lot for various vibe reasons as well. My job voting on my vibes has been horrible, so I'm wary of going there, but I think those are two good suspects. Frankly, I think a large clump of the people who voted PB yesterday must be Needies, so I'm looking at a group of those.

I'll follow with Telle, just so we have a contender for the day. I'm willing to slip to other of my suspects who anyone has a good case for though.

VOTE TELLE

Sorry clap, it was early morning. I meant to say that DT put in a vote on EF, which is better than what you did. Now hopefully my facts are as strait as Magellan.

You know, the main case against me seems to be that both days I thought that PurdueBrad was a better lynch candidate than EagleFan. Has anybody noticed that I'm FAR from being the only one to have thought this way?

Others that voted for PB both days: Latham, hoopsguy, Chief Rum

Unless you all have something more against me, I suggest you don't tunnel-vision yourselves so much that you ignore others that the exact same case could be made against.

My distrust list is, in order of most suspect to least:

Telle
TheJackal
Lerriuqs
Hoopsguy

Actually my notes have Chief voting EAgleFan Day 1. As well as Hoopsguy. And Lathum voted Eagle Fan as well.

LOL, I'll take your argument then.

You've made your case against me. Care to share what you have on the others?

Oh shit.. I was looking in the wrong column in my notes. NEVERMIND!!

Although my logic DOES work for The Jackal. So that's something I guess.

I am not sure I like the push towards Telle so quickly with a group of other candidates (Lathum, PB, and Hoops) that might be better to look into today after the events of yesterday. Although I suppose the fact that Alan was pushing for Telle needs to be considered, so I can see that too.

I don't have time to drag out all the details, but my case against that case is entirely vote-based. I'm focusing on those who voted PB yesterday, and those are the most suspect to me based on Day one votes and circumstance.

I certainly don't want to see a one horse race, PF. But we need to start with one. Let's see some others. Unlike AlanT, I can't vote twice ;-)

Lots of people are pushing for me (without much reason, from my point of view). Most of them are probably misguided villagers like Alan was. Doesn't mean much. And it's not like he was the seer or something with some secret info on me. He just had a theory, like everyone else.

umm, what?

I'm going to throw out a placeholder for PB right now. I'll look back and try to get a better handle at some point, but I can't stop shaking myself off the idea that we've been wolf/wolf with these two.


VOTE PURDUEBRAD

See later.. I had a blond moment.

I thought I explain it very well. I got nothing bad from Ef (how wrong I was) Or PB... and when people started voting someone I DIDNT trust, I jumped on it. so yeah, I was wrong on EF who knows, maybe Im wrong on you and PB as well!

OK, day 1 and 2 voting in an easy to find place

Your explanation-less vote on me was post 1285. I went as far back as 1151 and the closest I got to an explanation as to why you didn't vote for EF or PB was your post stating that you didn't think either "warn ti". Not a whole lot of in-depth analysis there.

And it might also be worth noting that your Day 1 vote wasn't in any of the major races either. Although I didn't search through to see if you were on much after your vote was placed.

From this list people who look good

CR- late day 1 vote on EF
Dubb-Late vote day 1 on EF, also went EF day 2
PF, Pass, Poli- Late day 2 votes on EF

People who look bad-

PB- late vote on NTN day 1, forced to vote EF day 2
BK- Day 1 voted for a villager and day 2 steered clear by voting Telle

People who have steered clear

-Saldana- Voted Dubb day 1 and Hoops day2
-Clap- Voted Telle day 1 and Telle day 2

Vote PB

not a fan of his voting record and I think we learn alot from this.

I don't get the Telle votes. I understand she defend someone day 1, but so far has voted PB twice and we don't know PB's alligence. I think there are better candidates.

I will likely vote Telle today (as I think I've stubbornly proved the previous two days) BUT a run away doesn't help us and I'm willing to give strong consideration to anyone else on my distrust list and mild consideration to anyone on my needs looked at list (and I seem to be one of the few that has never voted for Saldana in any game).

I'm not a fan of Claps 2 votes for Telle. He has steered clear of any controversy by doing this and can use the defense that he strongly thinks Telle is a wolf.

I'm not sure if you can answer this, but....does your reasoning for voting PB today have anything to do with your reasoning for voting for him yesterday?

Lathum, you said candidates plural. Who else do you consider?

Actually, clap voted for PackerFanatic on Day 1, post 335.

No, I am purely voting him today based on his poor voting record

Entirely incorrect, as I voted EF first on Day 1 and never moved from him. I was around, to some extent, during the last hour that day and would have had the option of moving to help him.

Going from memory on voting records, Chief Rum also voted EF on Day 1 and his was a later vote than mine.

I do not recall Lathum's votes from Day 1, but I know two of the three you list are incorrect.

my bad, either way, 2 meaningless votes looks bad to me

I voted EF as well, I believe I was the 3rd and somebody unvoted him

Oops, looks like others have already responded to this.

I was hoping to take a look at the folks to never vote for EF this game. I don't think it is a perfect metric by any means, but it is not a terrible starting point for today. After that, taking a look at those who voted late, when EF was in jeopardy, and went in other directions. I put some of that thought into my vote analysis last night but I never pulled this out separately. I'll try to do it at some point, but my access is definitely going to be limited while visiting this client.

Also- Day 1 PB had an early vote on Ef and unvoted him, then day 2 voted hoops, then unvoted hoops to vote EF when he had to, then flipped to Telle, then he had to go back to EF.

It seems so obvious he was trying to get a run on someone else.

All this is taken from hoops' lists.

I ended up on Telle somewhat reluctantly yesterday. I can do so a little more excitedly today.

Vote Telle

The flip to Telle was almost immediately after I, uh, fake-voted for her, too. I was thinking that as well.

I'll say this - our wolves went 2nd-level by silencing one of their own...why do we then think they'd drop back down to first level at the next opportunity and night kill alan if telle was his top suspect?

it doesn't add up that easily to me. wayyy too cut and dried.

That is correct, you were 3rd (putting EF at 3 votes before anyone else) and Dubb pretty quickly followed putting EF at a 4-2 lead on the pack. I'm guessing that is about the time that the wolves started sweating on that day and I would be very interested in seeing if there were unvotes on him from that point on.

I was first and stayed there.
You were third, didn't move after that point.
Dubb was fourth, didn't move after that point.
I'm pretty sure Chief was fifth, didn't move after that point, and his vote came fairly late in the day.

OK, would have to actually have the vote screen up to recall the rest. But if the person who was 2nd left their vote there all day (and there weren't late on/off votes) then we're probably looking for people who were protecting EF than people who moved on/off.

Not knowing PB's loyalties here makes this a little harder, but I'm hoping that the seer has taken time to scan him. If not, please do it soon! For now, I'm hoping that he is good and will likely be making my assumptions based on this point at least for today.

100% accurate. As I have stated several times, I've been trying to get over voting for a person that I view as a nemesis (this goes back two or three games when I voted hoops day 1 as a good guy and he turned out to be good too as a ton of people jumped on later). EF and Hoops are probably those two people so I tried to avoid them day 1 and then, honestly, I thought that between EF and ntn, ntn was the bad one because the only thing I had a read on was what I perceived as a save play by Telle. So on day 1, that is more than enough for me to pick one over the other. And if you look at my day 2, I either obviously believe that EF is good or I'm a pretty stupid wolf.

Because they thought there were getting the seer. At least that is how I read it. And I was hoping that the BG would read it that way too, but clearly he did not.

So before this vote (on Day 1), we've got ntn with 5, PB with 3, and EF with 3. If EF and Telle are wolves, is the best move here really to go balls out defending ntn?

The second EF vote on Day 1 was from PurdueBrad. Who then moved to ntn.. to me.. to ntn.. to me.. to ntn.

Vote Count, as of 1573

Telle 3- Clap (1532), Autumn (1535), BK (1566)
PB 2- Pass (1548), Lathum (1554)

so looking back through the day 1 votes I see no was PB sn't a wolf,

It is so obvious he and EF were trying to work a way to vote each other for trust then had an O SHIT moment and once PB saw there was a run on NTN that was his chance to hope on and save EF.

I really think they fucked it up, I see no way I move my vote from PB today.

Here's a Day 1 vote by PB, which obviously changed as the day went on. At this point, it's EF and ntn have 4 each, and PB has 3. How is it partially self-defense to make it take it from 4/4/3 to 3/5/3? If anything, that makes PB a more viable candidate, IMO, since he's tied for 2nd. I realize that it moves him from one off the lead to two off the lead, but it also opened himself up to a three-horse race in a way, whereas with a 4/4/3 vote count, there was a good chance we'd have consolidated around just EF and ntn.

So Pass, you thought we were villager/villager just before deadline. Then, EF turns up bad so that now means to you that we're wolf/wolf?

Welcome to a spot very high on my distrust list. This reads like spin to now get me off.

See above for reason.

vote Passacaglia

so you mean to tell me late in Day 1, with no knowledge of roles, you decide to switch from EF late and put the nail in NTN's coffin. This is the time you decide to let go of old nemesis'?

Not buying it.

Lathum, FWIW I think that we learn about PB if he is not targeted by a seer over the next couple of days.

His voting record sucks, I'm not disputing that at all. I've actually pointed it out a couple of times. But since we still have a seer alive I'm of the opinion that they will have to scan him at some point to help understand the earlier votes when PB's votes were so consistently bad.

Give him a day or two (we can afford it in a large game, I think) or until our seer croaks, and we can turn back to him.

I would rather focus on the people with bad voting records that were not in self-preservation mode for two straight days. Well, I would rather someone hand me a wolf on a silver platter, but if that isn't happening then I would rather look at bad voters that are not PB.

No, I tried very hard to do it all damn day.

And I had a reason, which I've spelled out numerous fucking times (are you dense on purpose here?), to why ntn over EF and frankly, if I had to do it again on day 1, I STILL would've done it because I HAD MORE REASON. Christ all fucking mighty.

You guys might as well vote me 'cause I'm probably going to be an ass the rest of the way at this point anytime somebody throws any suspicion my way after what I've explained and argued the last two days.

Hoops- I am going to vote for who I think is most likely to be a wolf. He has already stated he doesn't have an important role if we do lynch him.

I would rather that then key on the wrong person and lynch a more valuable role or force a reveal.

I agree PB's voting record is bad. He makes a good candidate, since we'd learn a lot from finding out his allegiance one way or the other. I'm leaning toward good, as I said last night, since that analysis led me to EF.

And I think that reason is you knew EF was a wolf.

Based on your voting record you have no right to be this upset, and you are to smart a player to not know that. This all seems a bit to contrived for me.

Well I said that before all this other analysis. I'll look at what you posted and the voting record some more, Lathum.

I'm going to be out for a good deal of the day so I want to get a solid vote down in case I don't catch up for deadline.

Heh, it reads to me like I don't know who the wolves are, and I'm trying to figure it out as we go. First of all, it's just a suspicion that we were wolf/wolf, I'm not sure of it or anything. However, it just doesn't like like any more effort was made to save EF than was made to save you, which to me means either villager/villager or wolf/wolf. If we were wolf/villager, who in your opinion was trying to save EF and get you voted out instead?

I understand that, hoops -- but what do you make of the fact that he defied self-preservation to switch to Telle late on Day 2? Not to mention that I think he slightly defied self-preservation in the middle of Day 1, as I posted earlier? It's one thing to excuse his votes because he needed to self-preserve, but this (so far, to me) seems worse, that he voted to save EF, even acting against self-preservation.

seer can't reveal, so we'll have no way of knowing if they've scanned PB or not

There's almost 1600 posts in this thread - I think it's pretty uncool to call people dense because they don't remember all of your posts. I know that I don't remember why you voted ntn at the end of Day 1 (though I'm going back through Day 1 now, so I'll probably see it). Can you just explain it again instead of being insulting?

I believe the seer *can* reveal -- only roles that aren't mentioned in the rules can't reveal.

I'm not sure thats true.

I think if you have a listed role you can reveal, just not a hidden one.

You want him to reveal to defend me? Christ, just vote me out.

I was just correcting DT on the rules. You need to lighten up.

You know what, no. Vote me.

I would, but I'm afraid that I would forget to unvote again, then my vote would accidentally be left on that PurdueBrad guy instead! :p

I've been trying to do that!

My last plea, to one of you numbers guys (likely Hoops and BK), run the odds that we were wolf-wolf-villager day 1 and the odds that we were wolf-wolf day 2 so that people can use some logic.

At this point, I'm on the verge of pulling out of thread until Monday.

On the one hand I hate to waste a possible seer scan if they've already scanned PB. On the other, a lynch tonight would be a quick and dirty way to shed a lot of light on our voting records. PB has no important role if he's a villager, and having avoided one night kill and lynching one wolf we're not doing too bad. I'm not against voting PB and giving ourselves essentially a seer scan at the cost of one villager. That would allow the seer to remain unrevealed for a while longer.

However, I have to wonder, if PB was a wolf, and EF, why the Criticize on EF? Particularly since I have to assume in this scenario that PB is the more important wolf role. I can't quite get past that point.

Thinking outloud, but that last point makes me think I'll stick with my vote on Telle. Hopefully I'll get a chance to reconsider before deadline.