Pure speculation but if I was Iran, I'd be testing also. Regardless of Trump or Kamala, it'll get more heated until Bibi goes away.

*Eyes On Iran:* A seismic disturbance was recently detected in a remote area of Iran. Online seismologists have noted that the region is not one prone to seismic activity, and that the magnitude, waveforms, and sudden occurrence with none of the usual warning signs of an pic.twitter.com/P21j1El22A

— (((IsraelMatzav))) (@IsraelMatzav) October 7, 2024

Lebanese Health Ministry reporting the death toll is now at 2169 with 10212 wounded in strikes in the country.

Israel has fired on UN peacekeepers.

Live: 11 killed following Israeli strikes on Beirut

The US Ambassador to Iraq put out a strange statement begging Israel not to kill Sistani. So it seems like Iraq is next on the menu.

This was from a week ago but does give the US perspective. Sort of feels like they're going to try the old Bush strategy of trying to re-mold the Middle East in their image through regime changes. Might be why they've gotten so close to Cheney and others from that administration.

Just a moment...

And an American journalist has been arrested for reporting on where the Iranian missiles landed. Seems like a very fringe outlet but still bad.

American journalist disclosed secrets during Iran attack, police says

So it appears Iran has threatened to strike neighboring oil facilities if their oil facilities are targeted. Those Gulf states are asking the US to step in to prevent that from happening.

reuters.com

I have to imagine that will be a red line for the U.S. before the election. Then again, invading Lebanon is a choice when you have to win Michigan so who knows if they even care.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...planning-iran/

With neighbors like this, I get why Israel is pressing on no matter what international opinion says. Even if they gave in on the demands from a ceasefire (leave gaza, etcetera), you still have a neighbor who actively was plotting to do a 9/11-style attack on Tel Aviv and is calling for your elimination).

Israel is no angels (hardly!) but really, not crushing the snake underfoot just leave s them free to try again.

I'm sure that's real and the IDF would not just make stuff up like they have repeatedly done.

Anyways, here is your October surprise. Better fill up your gas tanks.

BREAKING: NBC reports that senior US officials believe Israel will target Iranian state facilities and oil infrastructure in its retaliatory strikes

— The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) October 13, 2024

I rather IDF destroy as much of Iranian nuclear capability as possible. But short of that, rather they take out the Iranian navy vs attack some oil facilities.

Also, don't have WaPo but supposedly from an article.


I like the warning and hope the Iranians don't push it. Because if there was a declaration of war, it'd seem more than just airpower and cruise missiles.

Some horrific videos coming out of Al-Aqsa of children burned alive. They were connected to IV tubes when a missile hit. Worst thing I've ever seen and makes those ISIS videos tame in comparison. JFC

Lots of reddit chatter that Sinwar is dead. No idea if true. They have a body and DNA testing in progress.


EDIT: IDF has confirmed.

Something about every accusation is a confession.

“He told me to take them. In the next attack, use them as a human shield.”

An IDF soldier and five former Palestinian detainees tell CNN that the Israeli military has used civilians as human shields in Gaza, as @JDiamond1 reports. pic.twitter.com/o49EZNtTXS

— Christiane Amanpour (@amanpour) October 24, 2024

Buckle up folks, bombs are dropping in Tehran. Even reports of Iraq too. This is going to get ugly.

Seems to be pretty targeted. 2 deaths reported so far. Supposedly, Iran has said they won't respond. I really would have like to see some Iranian ships sunk. Symbolism would have been great but get it's not a big threat to Israel.

All in all, militarily speaking ... weighing all the dead Hezbollah & Hamas leaders (and some Iranian general?), I'd give this round to Israel.

Both sides have done it, but it'd be interesting to know which countries' airspace (Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia etc.) got violated.

Congrats, Joe. I'm sure a bunch of Lebanese & Israeli civilians are grateful there is peace (for now) in the north. No details on what the "enforcement mechanism" are.

Hamas & Gazans, not so lucky. Iran and Hezbollah has disengaged and not coming to the rescue anytime soon. Unlikely, any external pressure will force Israel to back off without all/most of the hostages being released or accounted for.

Access to this page has been denied

Thank God for those protest votes.

Oh, they should just wait after the 60 days expiration. Can't be a coincidence that'll be a week after Trump gets sworn in.

I really do hope this ceasefire lasts, but fair odds that one or the other will break the deal and there'll be a resumption of hostilities.

Didn't think of the implications (beyond the obvious) of Israel destroying what's left of Syria's military assets/equipment but below supposes that it clears a path to attack Iran.

Access Denied





Article goes on about how US may assist (assume post Jan 20). I'm thinking pure speculation, but Trump may just consider it. I hope not, he has plenty of domestic stuff to focus on

Would be great if this was true. But I seriously doubt this will happen until after Jan 20. Bibi and MBS will want to give the win to Trump.

Israel and Saudi Arabia Reach Normalization Breakthrough, Clearing Path for Hostage Deal - Israel News - Haaretz.com

And Blinken confirms my above thought.

Just a moment...

I do believe Trump gets a bunch of credit with the Abraham accords in his 1st term. And he handed Joe/Blinken a great opportunity with Saudi Arabia. And they were doing well until Oct 7. So now, Trump gets another opportunity to close the deal. Trump leans towards authoritarian rulers so hopeful he cuts a deal with MBS.

I've seen this optimism reported elsewhere so looking good for a ceasefire phase 1.

reuters.com


33 for 1,000. Not a bad ratio I guess.



Article doesn't say who would be running the aid. Would be good if some ME countries (or Turkiye?) took the lead

See: Khomeini, Reagan/Carter

West Bank is next.


Two-year-old Palestinian Killed by IDF Fire in West Bank Raid; Army: Investigating Incident - Israel News - Haaretz.com

All things considered, cease fire Phase 1 and exchange of hostages/prisoners is going pretty well.

Trump & Bibi to meet on Tue which should determine post-Phase 1.

Just a moment...

Pretty sure that Bibi doesn't want Phase 2 or at least not on the below terms.

IMO allowing US security contractors to work in Gaza is just crazy. Isn't that what the UN is for ... or other Arab countries?

Seems to me they'll be a prime target for any retaliations for any reason.

Just a moment...

Bibi & Gatz are smart letting Trump take credit for the plan and reframing it from Trump's "move them out" to voluntary & temporary. Trump should have said "voluntary & temporary" in the first place, that would have generated more positive conversation behind the wink-wink-nod-nod.

Israel backs Trump plan and orders military to prepare for Palestinians to leave Gaza | CNN

From Bibi

From Gatz

And a f**k you ...


I would include Vatican City in the list and also maybe SEA Malaysia & Indonesia as they've done a lot of criticizing but little to help Gazans beyond words.

Since it is Trump's plan to move them out, I'm sure the USA has the capacity to take in all 1.9 million refugees.

May be wrong but this is the first time I've heard Trump say "buying Gaza"? The "title insurance" mess/risk will be fun.

Trump says US is 'committed to buying and owning Gaza'
I'm thinking good chance "take care" is not the kind & caring manner.

Personally, I think there is alot of truth to below
I'd think Trump can "bribe" Egypt and Jordan. Saudi Arabia will ask for much more.

Regardless, I do hope something can be negotiated to take Gazans who want to leave for a real opportunity (e.g. not refugee camps, have path to citizenship) at a normal life.

I do think they want to return home. Look at all the Palestinians in Canada and the USA who have not stopped protesting. If they were completely forced out of Gaza, I can just imagine how much worse it would get. And certainly a red level terror threat to the country which evicts them from their home.

Why should other countries do this when the one they lived in the borders of wouldn't? Why shouldn't the people from Gaza have the right to determine their own leaders instead of being shoehorned into some other country?

I assume you are referring to Israel. Not getting into the history, debate who was there first, who owns the land etc. the simple answer is ... current day realities.

They did determine their own leaders ... and here we are with current day realities

To me, current day realities means:

1) The odds of getting the Gazan nirvana is not going to happen or at least, not anytime soon. Nirvana means living peacefully, good opportunities in Gaza, and River to the Sea etc.

2) So why not give Gazans another choice, one that they can make voluntarily? I'll generalize and put Gazans into 3 groups ...


So, per my original statement

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3457357) Regardless, I do hope something can be negotiated to take Gazans who want to leave for a real opportunity (e.g. not refugee camps, have path to citizenship) at a normal life.

Question - let's say right now, in this is current day, you are a regular Gazan person with your extended family living in war torn Gaza. Would you insist on staying in Gaza or would you prefer the opportunity to leave voluntarily & migrate to another country that will allow you to live peacefully, support your transition, provide good opportunities, and eventually citizenship?

Personally, for me, I know I'll be in the 2b and 2c camp. And if there is somewhat clarity for a good life & opportunities, then frak (land, politics, war etc.). No question I'd take it for me and family.

Bro just ignored several thousand years of history lol.

I'm going to assume these are more for Hezbollah and Lebanon, if that situation blows up again.

Heavy bombs from the US arrive in Israel as Rubio visits the country | CNN

For no reason at all, I always figured military munitions would be transported by military (looking) vehicles.

Wasn't sure if this fit in the Trump thread or this thread. But to summarize, a Jewish person in Florida shot into a car of people who he thought were Palestinian. He was so shit he only wounded them but claimed he killed them.

Then, after the shooting, the Israeli Jewish victims posted on Facebook about how they were to victims of an anti-Semitic hate crime. They also posted Death to all Arabs.

I liked the world better before we knew that 90% of the people living on it were absolute pieces of shit morons. Can we just nuke the internet?

Florida Jew opens fire, injures 2 Israeli tourists he thought were Palestinians

Which again, brings me back to my original question. Why should those other countries do that? Why should the international community even try to pressure them into doing that instead of demanding Israel change the way they interact with the 'Gazans'? Why are you just assuming that Israel's path is set in stone, but don't allow the other countries in the area the same freedom to chart their own sovereignty?

Why didn't the rest of Europe let Nazi Germany in and just take them over and start somewhere else. It's like someone has no knowledge of any interaction in the history of humanity.

There's no reason for there to be anywhere in Gaza that one stone remains stacked atop another.

Empty it, flatten it, turn it into a giant parking lot. And I really don't give the slightest tiniest fuck what sequence that occurs.

are you going to volunteer for that to be done to your home as well?

I haven't spent an eternity hoping to be safe haven for terrorists.

It's really pretty simple: zero reason to believe those animals are willing OR capable of being part of a remotely civilized world. It's time to accept that reality and act accordingly.

Those supporting them are either damned fools or willing accomplices, and at some point that distinction becomes academic.

Conservatives are like vampires because they feed off the young and can't see their reflection in the mirror.

Because other countries have and will continue to accept non-militant refugees. So why not?


Best answer I have is ... current day realities. I do not believe anyone other than the US can get Israel to change. And Trump is not going to do it.

Question - do you really believe the international community, how it is today and not how it should be in an ideal world, will (yes) and can (no) pressure Israel to change?


I'll reiterate ... current day realities.

Gaza strip did have some freedom (admittedly, not the same as Israel) to chart their own sovereignty. However, I'll propose that West Bank has made much more progress than Gaza strip as evidence that it can be done if the Gazan leadership wanted to.

However, the reality is one side wants to live in relative peace. The other side, wants "river to sea".

Question - based on current realities, do you believe Hamas can live in peace with Israel? Say, in a similar manner as the PA in the West Bank?

And I'll followup and ask my original question again ...

They're going to do it anyway so we might as well let them is possibly the core tenet of centrism.

You're talking about a very specific thing in your first sentence that you think doesn't apply to you, but you do promote violence toward people who disagree with you throughout your posts here.

Neither have many of the people living there. That broad brush you are painting everyone with is simply contrary to obvious fact.

Oh yeah, baby ... sign me up.

A little speechless, had a WTF moment ... but I did chuckle.


(Watch first 30-40 secs)

Including trans belly dancers is definitely a choice.

Great the Arab countries are taking the initiative. I'm sure there'll be a lot of negotiations and changes before it'll be accepted by all parties (if at all) ... but have to start somewhere with a baseline.

They've proposed stuff before and hope this garners all the support it needs ... they've seen how crazy (and possibly, serious) Trump is.

https://www.dw.com/en/arab-leaders-u...lan/a-71819003
$53B doesn't sound like much.

I'd think an "independent body composed of Arab states" would be a better selling point. That will show the US & Israel that Arab countries really have a stake in the game vs just words.

Little more details on the plan. Three step plan for the spending of $53B

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/06/obst...ref=biztoc.com
Money shouldn't be an issue, the real problem is governance. Below states Palestinian elections in all areas (West Bank & Gaza). If I was Israel, that doesn't sound like a good deal. I'd call their bluff and ask for a coalition of Arab states (with boots on the ground) govern Gaza for X years

Apparently, US is holding "direct talks" with Hamas. I don't think Hamas reacts well to public threats which means a breakdown resulting in more US arms to Israel and Bibi will continue.

Trump tells Hamas 'you are dead' if Israeli hostages are not immediately handed over | World News | Sky News

How those protest votes working out?

Israel cuts electricity supply to Gaza | AP News

Oh, I thought this bump was going to be about the admin disappearing protesters.

did someone disappear?

Gift link: https://wapo.st/43yuArP


Maybe "misplaced" is more apropriate, I dunno.