I think the odds are pretty good he loses, and it wouldn't be for me to 'work out excuses'. But it's far from certain, and stuff like the 400 electoral votes are what I think is nuts.

I think Biden could (I'm not at all hoping for this to be clear) literally die and not be replaced on the ticket and Trump still wouldn't get that many.

Sigh. Biden had the right response, but I hate that he had to give it and couldn't take the low road response, reply like trump would have done and blame everyone else for it happening, like Biden.

I just hate that this overshadows Dr Ruth and Richard Simmons passing.

I would say 400 would be near impossible, but 307-322 is definitely in play.

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He's seems to have 311 safely. New Jersey, New Hampshire, and New Mexico may be in play. So probably a ceiling of 334 which is still incredible with such an unpopular canddiate.

Took a long walk this morning, it's beautiful out and not too hot yet.

I thought about yesterday, Dr. Ruth going, then Richard Simmons and then we get the Trump thing...

I don't think it changes things. Trump already has a slight lead but his negatives are still there. His followers are still his followers. His opponents are still his opponents.

For moderates or undecided, I think longview is we're tired of this shit, it's been an escalation, his past four years were a stress induced nightmare of fuckery.

I get Biden is old and boring; guess what, that's good, it's good for America to have a steadying force that just gets shit done.

Trump in office will not get anything done save for Trump; his minions will do what they can to carve off pieces for themselves.

It will not get better.

So, a registered Republican. Doesn't necessarily mean anything and the narrative is already written.

I would say the lone wolf, extremist terror threats have been on the rise, and have been the primary threat in this country for quite some time. This isn't necessarily that, but it's not necessarily that either. The temp continues to rise in the country. This won't be a 'bring the people together moment', nor will it be the point where cooling is even attempted. I still don't think we're at 1968 levels of fear, but we're quickly closing.

1968. Exactly what has been on my mind all night.

I have serious doubts that Biden is anything but a puppet at this point and I believe he will not get anything done for the next four years. Things will be done, but not by his doing. He’s essentially in a reverse-regency status at this point.

As for being boring, 5 days prior to this assassination attempt, Kenneth Vogel of The NY Times reported that Biden told donors via phone call that, “I’m done with talking about the debate. It’s time to put a bullseye on Trump.” That’s not boring language, he probably misspoke or read something his staff handed him to read, but it certainly isn’t boring the day after Trump was put in a bullseye.

Thankfully the shooter missed (the candidate at least) and I’m hopeful the fiery rhetoric on the far left tones down.

Wait... you're comparing escalating rhetoric on social media and TV by mostly rght-wing politicians with a closed-door comment Biden made to megarich people as being similar, inferring it has some causal connection to this shooting? Like, Biden's comment that no one heard about and is a commonly-used phrase is the same as Paul Gosar's comic book stabbing of AOC or the President of Heritage Foundation warning "we'd have a bloodless revolution if the left allows it" on TV (among dozens of examples)? Are you serious?

Or Trump reposting a truck that has a picture of Biden tied up in the bed?

Or the countless tactless posts about Paul Pelosi.

What happened with trump was terrible, but the current GOP has embraced violence.

First pic of the shooter pre-shot I have seen.


Blocked

I have serious doubts that Biden is anything but a puppet at this point and I believe he will not get anything done for the next four years. Things will be done, but not by his doing. He’s essentially in a reverse-regency status at this point.

As for being boring, 5 days prior to this assassination attempt, Kenneth Vogel of The NY Times reported that Biden told donors via phone call that, “I’m done with talking about the debate. It’s time to put a bullseye on Trump.” That’s not boring language, he probably misspoke or read something his staff handed him to read, but it certainly isn’t boring the day after Trump was put in a bullseye.

Thankfully the shooter missed (the candidate at least) and I’m hopeful the fiery rhetoric on the far left tones down.

there is a glitch with the Dutch bot

This is such a shit take. Trump preachers political violence and literally has quoted Hitler, claimed he will be a dictator, tried to overthrow democracy, and has a plan in place to create a fascist government.

Everything the "far left" claims is absolute truth. Maybe if Trump wasn't so loathsome this wouldn't have happened.

Lotsa idiots on Facebook saying it was staged. So the stupidity isn’t confined to the lunatic right.

The most literal interpretation of doubling down

And at least one elected official. Fucking idiots. But you know, when you see what works for the other side, time to go a-slummin' down the same dark alleys...

Oh, and about my comments that SS did a shit job shielding Trump on the stage, Matt Walsh of course said "hold my beer" and is questioning why the FEMALE agent is ducking down to expose Trump's head.

These people have no limits. How someone can read/listen to this shit and then, as a female or LGBTQ or minority still vote for them boggles my mind.

Yeah man, this happens (I think) after I edit a post from my phone.

Who is Biden a puppet of again? I just want to know where the real power is.

Trump Rally Suspect Had Explosive Devices in His Car: WSJ

I wonder what his full plan was.

Early info seems to suggest he was a registered republican that was bullied throughout school. This may be less about politics and mostly just a guy that snapped and saw an opportunity.

I prefer reverse-regency but I didn’t say he was for sure a puppet, he could be calling all the shots (figuratively, not literally) but at this point, I don’t believe he’s capable of running the country as anything other than a signature block on other people’s work, similar to a regency for a young king or queen.

I don’t believe he has the mental cognizance to make sharp executive veto of those advisors suggestions or how to put his own stamp on all of the decisions that the POTUS must make.

I believe this not because the White House has provided any official statement or document as proof, but because in everyday life we have things like Powers of Attorney to care for elders that need the help.

If only Biden had added this parenthetical to his use of a similar common phrase, none of this would.have happened!

Doesn't seem like a politically-motivated act from initial reports. Bullied loner, always wore hunting clothing, donated to a liberal PAC on Biden's inauguration day but later that year registered GOP, and no one they've spoken to who went to HS with him said he was overtly political.

It's pretty common that these types of shooters have no or contradictory political opinions. Hinckley famously shot Reagan to try and impress Jodi Foster.

Amazing pic of the bullet

Bullets, blood and a raised fist: Dramatic images from Trump rally - BBC News

Trump with a bloody face, raising his fist will play well …

On the other hand, Joe’s cognitive issue out of the news for a while.

i'm certain this is the angle FOX news and right wing media will take.

Not when the likely VP has already declared this a liberal assassination attempt.

I really don't see the motive matter at all. It's done. The result is played. The pictures will carry on forever. Who did it or why is ancillary now.

Planning to ram the area and set off explosives if he couldn't get the shooting position maybe?

I don't think it's out of the news, I think they'll be seen as being about the same thing - Joe has cognitive issues, while Trump can raise his fist after being shot.

Yeah what actually happened doesn't even matter at this point. The party of political fanfic has already written their stories.

Another blow to the "good guy with a gun" talking point...

https://x.com/AP/status/181256413701...UHMrfUibQ&s=19

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The real story in all of this should be how the shooter was able to get into that position in the first place.

Which means it's the thing least likely to be resolved :(

The fact that he got into that position and was then taken out within seconds says there was a massive breakdown.

It's well beyond time for some purging within the Secret Service and some accountability.

But I bet you'd have had a helluva time stealing chips & a soft drink anywhere around there

I just don't get how between the SS and the local police forces that were pulled into the area, how there wasn't a body on every roof within the sight line. It just doesn't seem like that would have taken that much man-power.

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this was kinda funny

Having been through a scenario like this some years back, that's a big push/pull. Local authorities often haaaaaaaaate being dragged into this kind of stuff & are frequently extremely resentful of it, to the point of being "cooperative" with all the enthusiasm of me being paid to say something nice about {insert apt topic here}.

It's worse after I saw an aerial shot. If this was a major city where you had to cover dozens of building, it's one thing. But from this photo, I don't see a whole lot of places that would even be places you could pull this off from. How do you not have someone stationed on the roof? Or at the very least a drone or two in the air spotting weird movements by any tall buildings?

This is either incredibly poor work and laziness, or something more sinister.




When in doubt and without pretty good evidence, I fall on the side of incompetence. Whether it's this or bad food service. Incompetence is pretty common everywhere.

oh come on....these are republicans we're talking about. They don't plan...and they aren't smart. They scoff at everything involved with thinking. I mean Guliani went to a parking Lot for a press conference and no one thought that was wrong.

Yeah, they've had their fair share of blunders over the years so I'm going with incompetence. But I think questions need to be asked and there needs to be an investigation into it. A 20 year old loser should not be able to pull that off in such a remote location.

Id have to think if there was a conspiracy theyd get someone as the shooter who wouldnt miss.

Patsies are a human factor that can never be 100% accounted for. Murphy's Law and all that.

I am not a big conspiracy guy at all, but this whole thing is very Kennedy like. Dude was a registered republican, roof he shot from had perfect line of site from the snipers position and was the closest elevated structure to where they were, yet he still managed to get off multiple shots before they fired back.

There are several large SUV's now parked outside J.D. Vances' house. Looks like the VP pick has been made.

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Vance seems like the worst pick he could make. Doesn't make sense but he's got a lead so maybe it won't matter.

I suppose I am a conspiracy guy, lol, but yeah, the video footage of them lining something up but only returning fire didn’t seem right. Maybe that is simply hindsight now and lacking all of of the details, but they were zeroed in on the shooter. Why didn’t they fire first?

He donated to ActBlue, right, Registered Republican means he just wanted to vote in that primary instead of the Democratic one, so I don't think too much of that.

Me neither. Doesn't mean anything. His state has closed primaries.

Didn't it day he donated $15? Could easily just be something a desired friend or crush donated too and he followed. Im sure as more comes out some on both sides will take with it as they want. Most likely scenario seems to be a trouble individual who wanted to make a name on the way out.

His hat is grounds for immediate disqualification from any serious consideration.

http://https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4v7v2g5l1o

Deleted original without clickable link and provided here because I moved to my computer and can post properly. I really should not be posting here from my phone. Probably shouldn't be posting at all some would say. :)

I think I'll just close this game and restart from my save file.

Why did you keep playing for 8 years? I hope you did a rolling save.

trump always makes the worst pick. I mean the bushes made terrible picks too.

The senate race was truly awful. Vance's ads were contentless and full of trump's name. That's why really. Also There is little fear that vance's replacement will be anyone but republican in this state.

I'm sorry, what? I don't want to hear shit about how brave cops are.

The more detailed description of that encounter I read is that one officer climbed up to the roof and was holding on with both hands, hanging onto the roof essentially, to see what was going on and was unable to grab his gun since he was using both hands to hold onto the edge of the roof, and when the shooter turned his gun on him, he let go and dropped rather than be a sitting duck since he couldn't grab his gun. I can't say I blame him, if that's how it actually happened.

fucking checkpoints....and these controls are wonky too

That's literally the entire point of their job.

To die? I'm pretty sure it is not. They have put their lives at risk, but not suicidaly.

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Yeah that sounds like a reasonable scenario.

That's literally what the Thin Blue Line assholes have been saying the past 20 years, that these guys are so brave and risk their lives to keep us safe. Yet when there's a domestic terror incident they chicken out. Either stop telling me their Gods chosen saviors or tell them to do their job when it's not a black dude in his car with a seatbelt on.

"That's literally what the Thin Blue Line assholes have been saying the past 20 years, that these guys are so brave and risk their lives to keep us safe. Yet when there's a domestic terror incident they chicken out. Either stop telling me their Gods chosen saviors or tell them to do their job when it's not a black dude in his car with a seatbelt on."

This officer being killed wouldn't have stopped anything, and it is a pretty ridiculous position that the guy was just supposed to allow himself to be shot for no reason. Take a deep breath and think about what you are saying.

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So him having to complete change his positioning to turn to shoot at 1 cop wouldn't have alerted the secret service before Trump and 3 other people got shot? He would have been able to do a 180, shoot at the cop, do a 180 and shoot 4 people before the secret service took him down?

Nobody wants to die, suicides aside, nobody. Ever. Doesn't matter how our the circumstance. Nobody wants to.

"So him having to complete change his positioning to turn to shoot at 1 cop wouldn't have alerted the secret service before Trump and 3 other people got shot? He would have been able to do a 180, shoot at the cop, do a 180 and shoot 4 people before the secret service took him down?"

There is no way that know that for a fact, nor do I know that for a fact, and the officer definitely didn't know that for a fact. He did what he is called on to do for his job. They are just like fire fighters in their job is to reduce casualties, and the primary and most reasonable way to do that is not to become one.

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Risk your life, yes. Allow yourself to be killed when you are completely vulnerable and unable to defend yourself, no. If the scenario I read is actually what happened, I don't see the fault in his actions.

Ghost Echon, let's just use your scenario. If the officer, as in what you said, knew that the SS snipers had a bead on the guy (which I really don't know know if he did, because I doubt this local officer was in direct communication with the SS). Then wouldn't it be reasonable for him to think that once the shooter had brandishing the weapon at him, that would be all the green light that the snipers needed to shoot? He didn't need him to pull the trigger. Pointing a gun at a police officer is reason enough to fire. The question isn't this guy's bravery. He had already been brave enough to climb up on a roof with a guy with a likely weapon. It is the question of what the f was the SS doing?

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Nightmare numbers....

Most shocking chasm heading into conventions: per new @NBCNews poll, just 33% of Dem voters are satisfied w/ their party's presidential nominee, vs. 71% of GOP voters. pic.twitter.com/RnFosCwSlm

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 15, 2024

At this point, it doesn't matter what the Dems do as far as their candidate. The assassination attempt survival and the photo of a bloodied Trump defiantly raising his fist (an absolute dream image for his marketing people) put the election out of doubt. Only question now is how much he wins by.

Rubio and Burgam has both been told "not it." J.D. Vance looking more likely unless Trump does pull a curve ball.

He was who I thought all along, but I'm surprised he's going with the guy with facial hair. Apparently he's got a Steinbrenner-like hang-up about facial hair, and Vance - without a beard - looks like he's 12.

Lot of folks here who rode hard for Biden the past few years going to look real dumb in November.

seriously Rainmaker, you have nearly 2.5 times the number of posts in this thread as the next poster, and 90% of them are a variation of the same three posts. What do you feel you are adding to the discussion?

I really thought it would be the boring guy.

This kind of stuff is so ridiculous yet so expected at the same time. It's hard to turn off the "culture war" spigot when that's all that comes out of your mouth:

Maybe all the raging and tweeting at 3am from the bathroom is catching up to Trump. Vance isn't even 40. He has shown he can be the bulldog. Maybe that's going to be his primary role. He's got the energy and obvious talent (such as it is) for it.

For those that wonder why people keep bending the knee, Vance jumped on the MAGA train after saying he could be America's Hitler and now he's likely the next VP.

"We should really only be hiring white men for everything."

(Note: next administration will only hire white men for everything. Except maybe for the spokemodels.)

This is a big throwback, but so cool...

40 years ago tonight in Detroit's Joe Louis Arena: GOP convention delegates are told to stay in the hall. Presumptive nominee Ronald Reagan is on his way with an announcement. It looks like Fmr. President Ford has agreed to join the ticket. But then Chris Wallace gets a scoop... pic.twitter.com/HZDYBvwmam

— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) July 16, 2020

I had no remembrance that Gerald Ford was the odds-on favorite. I just remembered Bush was so tough on Reagan in the primary and was shocked he ended up the nominee. Of course, I was only 11.

It is official. JD Vance.

Before my time (I was 3), but I missed the date on the tweet and thought that was 40 years ago today. I thought the idea of Bush being off the ticket in '84 seemed weird, but once I saw that date that all made more sense.

My grandparents took me to that RNC but I don't remember anything about it (I would've been 8).

VP picks rarely matter either way in terms of the final vote. That said, it's actually arguably the best pick he could make. 39 years old and with celebrity power due to Hillbilly Elegy (That it's regarded as problematic and inaccurate is irrelevant - the people who take issue with the memoir are never going to vote Trump anyway)

It's a selection that will probably sway some leery of Trump's age over to voting Republican.

He is the better pick for possible legacy post-Trump as well.

And an actor is out of work. Trump is already killing jobs Biden created.

I don’t know anything about Vance. Just watched a couple of YouTube videos featuring him in Congress. But I’m intrigued by this movie that’s been mentioned. Guess I will be queueing up Hillbilly Elegy on Netflix and see what that’s all about.

I'm leaving this here largely so that I'm on the record well in advance. It's just a copy & paste of what's on my social media. If I'm right, I have proof. If you need to roast me later, you have proof.

----

This is kind of nuts.

Alleged Trump shooter spotted by law enforcement nearly 30 minutes before shots fired, sources say – WPXI

It's got some problems, especially the fact that Middletown, OH is not in Appalachia, but the overall message of people are responsible for their choices has merit. The problem is he figured out his political career depended on renouncing everything he says in his book and blaming all the problems on liberal elites.

I hate how liberals are so obsessed with celebrity and the elites, like how their most revered President was an actor and their current candidate is a reality TV star and how their VP pick is an author.

Never seen the film adaptation but the book boils down to blaming people in rural areas issues on laziness and their culture. He was pretty critical of Trump at the time and I believe even called him Hitler. Then Peter Thiel bought him and he just says what he's told now.

Liberals loved the book because it's basically their point of view. Although I found it funny that Vance blames "elites" when he went to an Ivy League school and entrenched himself with rich elites who helped launch his political career.

I don't think there is anything special about him. He'll just say and do what he's told which is kind of why he's probably appealing to the establishment.

That describes almost every single MAGA conservative. Ivy League grads, most born with money. They play to the down home folks that they would never want to spend ten minutes with.