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I'm still suspicious of Jackal, but two second votes on two villagers looks really bad.
Vote NFG |
Also, twice now Autumn has voted for NFG early in the day, and there have been no follow votes. I think at least one wolf would have capitalized on that and followed Autumn's vote.
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One slight alteration, on day 2, King voted for NFG one post after Autumn dropped his vote there, so technically one person followed the vote there.
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I was trying to start movement on him yesterday by adding a second vote (which I thought at the time) to see what would follow. Of course, I didn't fully catch up on the thread before I posted as autumn unvoted him just 5 minutes prior. |
Yeah, I amended that as I looked at the vote again in the post right above yours. Your vote looks good if NFG turns out wolf
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Wow... that's an impressive analysis. I'm going to have to digest this for a bit. I think you've made quite some good inroads there, Danny. Maybe get DT to comment on it to see if he may have some other info relating to the conclusions you've come to.
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Great work there Danny. Since you are also suspicious of Jackal, and your analysis makes me suspicious of him too now, I'll go there so we don't have a runaway vote on nfg.
vote Jackal |
@3:03 - msg received. good to be on same page re:you. will have more to say later
in the car and on my phone. excuse any typos, and if there are any questions I need t answer if someone wants to post them after this post of mine to make sure I don't miss them. |
I am fine with a Jackal, NFG run off, I'd bet there is at least one wolf between the two of them.
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What exactly makes me suspicious with what I've done?
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What analysis, exactly? I unvoted PB on day one first because I suddenly got a few votes and shifted my vote to NTN for self defense. |
I've voted for two unknowns, haven't shuffled my vote around.. not sure why you're after me. Because I got votes on day one? We've already established that was a baseless run.
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Danny, thanks for the hard work.
vote nfg |
Since I wanted to go this direction yesterday and haven't seen anything to change my mind since autumn's situation was cleared up by DT.
Vote nfg22 |
Well, works for me.
Vote nfg |
daddytorgo has this to say: in a jacal vs ng runoff the only candidate in there he can support voting for is jackal. jackal is on the NI list, and the "power could be demonstrated and still be wolf" list and nfg is not.
would rather see votes for others over either of those 2, but if I must be one of those 2 I will vote jackal |
Do we have a vote count (I see Telle in the thread, she'll probably pull through)?
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Well since I've been called out by name and all.. :)
Votes as of post #1421: 1 - Autumn - nfg (1132) 1 - PurdueBrad - path (1347) 5 - nfg - Autumn (1350), Danny (1405), PurdueBrad (1417), king (1418), The Jackal (1419) 1 - The Jackal - Thomkal (1411) |
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DT is starting to talk in third person now? Shades of Dr. Doom. |
I'm not sure if DT's comment is enough to make me change votes. I mean does he actually have anything on NFG or is he just saying NFG has a more believable role? Is NFG on the high trust list or the mild trust list?
What I'd give for a COT right now. DT can you give a little more guidance as to how strongly you feel about this? I like the analysis we have now. |
Thinking about that, DT's comment is enough for me to prefer a 5-2 margin over a 5-1.
VOTE THE JACKAL |
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I'm not sure either, so far going with the less believable role thing hasn't worked out to well. |
Is NFG going to be on soon, I'd like to hear from him
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I don't want to join the pile-on on nfg, so I'm going to go with Chief instead. He voted for now-known villagers both days and was one of the people who jumped at following DT on Autumn.
vote Chief Rum |
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I agree with Danny's theory that the wolves likely wanted to spread their votes out and did so early to get some candidates they could build on. Your votes fit that theory nicely. |
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I think he's saying NFG is a more believable role. Not necessarily making any definitive statements on NFG being high trust or not. Makes me lean toward Jackal right now, but I'll have to think about it a bit more before casting a vote. |
Danny, I don't see quite the motive in nfg's voting record that you do.
What I see as the most damning thing about him ends up being a positive, and that is his eagerness to throw Autumn under the bus last night in his PM to DT. That could be seen as a wolfy thing to do, though when Autumn presumably came up good it would focus extra attention his way. I saw it more as looking for a reason to suspect someone who had voted for him (remember, he mentioned King when he voted Autumn, who had also just happened to vote him). But the end positive is that he appeared to convince DT one way or the other, so I'm not sold on voting for him. |
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I don't see why going after someone who voted early for two unknowns is better than going after people who have voted for two known villagers. You are punishing me because the people I voted for weren't lynched, even though they might be wolves? |
Well, the others on my list today from vote analysis were PB, Danny, NTN and Saldana. I would swtich to Jackal or to one of these people. I know Jackal's not great on DT's list, I'm not sure abou the rest.
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NTN I have no idea about, but I think it's unlikely PB is a wolf.
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I mean, what do you think DT, should I just share my role? I'm not the person to go after.
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Wait. I don't recall DT giving us the names of the two people who PM'd him about wanting to use their powers against Autumn. Did I just miss that or something? |
NFG was revealed as one in thread, I'm not sure if the other was or not, I can't remember
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Well, NFG is here now, so let's see what he has to say.
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probably something like "please don't vote for me" |
Have no fear I am here...Ill give a reason for my votes....I voted on NTN fast because of no activity and needing a viable candidate. Then NTN came on, interacted and gave a good defense. I then voted on Kwhit because NTN gave what seemed to be a good scenario. Thus making me jump on Kwhit right after NTN. The second day I cant say much other than I wanted to get a vote out on my most likely candidate. It was the second vote but really it was a coincidence. I know i dont have much history but you will see if you look at the 4-5 games i have played, that I am very quick to conclusions and I like action.
The fact that DT would rather go for someone else(jackal) instead of me should mean a bit. I sincerly hope you dont vote me off based on two days of voting when really no one had any clue what to do. This was shown by the quick ups and downs of many people. I was not the only one just piling on votes. |
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Pass...now come one...would I say that? Maybe I want to be voted for before I kill you???RAWWWR. |
I find Jackal's behavior somewhat suspicious. He votes for NFG, not necessarily because of what I layed out, but because it's not him, but at this time he only has 1 vote on him. He also is basically ready to give up and reveal with only two votes.
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Guarenteed I was not one who wanted to use powers on Autumn. I just didnt want to tell my powers to Autumn. DT will confirm this. |
PM @ 1215...I agree totally and will follow your advice...
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Hmm... can someone who has been in a few of the 4-5 games NFG has been in before verify if he actually is quick to conclusions as he said?
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Well, I figure this isn't like last game where you wanted everyone to vote for you! :p |
Well i totally messed up a the HERO WW because I sometimes just say something to say something.
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You are correct. I would not like everyone to vote for me...just 40%. Im just joking. I really would like 0%. |
fifteen people? but not DT to vouch for me...how unfortunate.
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I agree Danny about Jackal being suspicious. Given that you're both on my suspect list and are somewhat at odds in this, I think I will vote for you and see how that race goes. Despite my misgivings I'll come off of nfg for now to avoid lynching someone DT thinks might be good and/or helpful.
UNVOTE NFG22 VOTE DANNY |
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No, I've been suspicious of NFG since Autumn mentioned he pinged him the other day. And yes, it's partly self-preservation, but I honestly do think there's a good chance he's a wolf, much more confident than I was in my PB or NTN votes. I'm annoyed because I've done nothing negative for the village and am drawing heat, that's all. |
WTF? Danny? Im glad it isnt me but random? Especially when your the one who spearheaded the dont go with DT but go with voting records...im confused but kinda relieved?
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Im keeping my vote on Autumn.
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I mentioned Danny as a suspect much earlier in the day NFG. In addition I just have a gut feeling, he hasn't been playing his normal game. He hasn't drawn any attention. If Jackal is a good guy I think Danny may not be so I'd like to see how a race between them woudl go. Why are you so sure about DAnny, NFG? |
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Telle, this is what I was referring to. |
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I haven't played enough with Danny to know his style, but he's nowhere on my personal trust list right now though I have no real reason to distrust him either. Solidly neutral for me at this point, so I've got no problem with him getting a vote. |
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I think he was referring to (and I was answering about) you being one of the two people Autumn messaged, not you being one of the two who wanted to kill him. |
In fairness to Autumn, he has had some suspicions of me starting yesterday I believe.
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Danny, why didn't you vote day 1? I think you said something but am way too busy to find it now.
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guys I am a page back but I don't necessarily want to spell ut wo is on the "ht" list right now for fear of making them targets.
I will say that my feelings in this case are based on more than role-pm's. still got a page to catch up |
I had company over, so wasn't paying close attention to anything that was happening in the game. I ended up losing track of time and came in at about 6 and the lynch already happened.
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ok...np. I just wanted to be off the list of people who tried to use their powers against Autumn cause I did not. |
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Hmmm, I will unvote because of this, but I'm not sold necessarily on going by this list 100% Unvote NFG |
Votes as of post #1463:
1 - Autumn - nfg (1132) 1 - PurdueBrad - path (1347) 3 - nfg - PurdueBrad (1417), king (1418), The Jackal (1419) 1 - The Jackal - Thomkal (1411), Pass (1425) 1 - Danny - Autumn (1450) 1 - Chief Rum - Telle (1428) |
While I haven't gotten an answer on NFG's play style, I find his explination to be slightly more persuasive than Jackal's right now. So based on Danny's vote history analysis, I think Jackal is the best bet. And I'm going out after work tonight (can't miss trivia night at the bar!) and don't want to be caught without a vote when my suspicions are tingling.
Vote The Jackal |
Beep, beep, beep, beep...
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Vote Poli
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I am going to get going soon. I am bringing my laptop with me to class today, so I may be able to check in, but may not depending on what we are doing.
I am going to stick with my analysis and go with Jackal now that DT doesn't want us to vote for NFG. Vote Jackal |
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Ntndeacon has gone under the radar lately, hasn't he? Kind of weird. Schmidty is also strangely quiet.
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oh my the Clock has one less post than me, I better post some more. :)
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Both are very quiet, which is not unusual for either. It makes NTN impossible to read, though Schmidty generally is more active if he has an important role (such as wolf).
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Yeah. |
Danny, honestly, you're a good player, what makes you think I'm a wolf? People keep pointing to your "vote analysis". Because my votes were early and on people we don't know about I'm the best person to go after? Seems kind of foolish.
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You're just rubbing me the wrong way, and now that you've made your intentions clear, and that people are apparently going to move off NFG because DT doesn't want us to vote for him..
unvote NFG vote danny |
I'm not going to be around a lot this evening, we have a guest. I'd really like to see consolidation of votes. I had hoped that this game would allow us to lynch more often and get a quicker voting record, but hasn't worked so far. I'm willing to go to Jackal if it's the way to get a vote consolidated.
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or stay where I am ;-)
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Voting for me is going to be a waste of everyone's time.
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I'm willing to stand by nfg22 for now.
DT hasn't really gotten us anything yet, so I'm hesitant to unvote and move over to jackal or danny. Of course this could end up biting me in the end, but I'm going to stick with my own gut feeling for now. |
Funny how we're going after 3 of the top 6 posters, eh? Makes you think about the people that are keeping quiet.
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It seems to be you're just voting for whoever as long as it's not you, so other than the voting record (which is not good, though a number of others players look poor as well), your play seems to have desperation in it. |
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I completely disagree that my voting record is "not good". Either you're a wolf or you are making me lose faith in WW. |
How is your voting record good? You have early votes to establish candidates. You're right that if NTN is a wolf, you're voting record is good, but otherwise it's not. Wolves like to hide behind votes for villagers that are not lynched. There are a number of voting records which are not good and quite honestly much of what I am going off of is due to DT's trust of NTN. Maybe that is a mistake, I don't know.
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Lose faith in WW?
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There was also movement off of you day 1 to other players. You also have never unvoted which is very wolfish if NTN and PB are in fact not wolves. I do realize there is a lot of assumptions here, but at this point I was going with DT's trust of NTN and my read that PB is not a wolf.
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I never said my voting record was good. But to say it isn't good.. I can't agree with that. It's unknown. And I'd hardly say it falls on the bad side of unknown, since there's still a fair amount of suspicion on NTN and PB. |
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Yeah, as in playing what you think is a good game to help the village and getting crucified for it, hopefully by wolves, but often times it's usually just misguided villagers trying to grasp at something to give them justification for a vote. |
Alright, I am leaving now, but I will check in later. If arguments for other candidates can be made, I am open to that. I actually wouldn't mind DT posting what his thoughts of NTN are as my vote is based off the assumption that NTN is good.
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I didn't unvote NTN to go to KWhit, that hardly seems like a negative decision. And I didn't unvote PB because I wasn't ever fond of the run on clap, which I repeatedly said. Would it have honestly looked better if I moved my vote from a candidate with votes to someone random? |
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But then you need to create arguments for other players, just quickly voting for whoever else comes up is not the way to win us over. You're play is either a disparate wolf or frustrated villager. Unfortunately, often times either way it gets you lynched. If you're a bad candidate, tell us who is a good one. |
All right, I've got to head out. I guess I will leave my vote where it is and see if there's more time when I get back. I think Danny, Jackal and NFG are all good suspects so I'm interested to see how the runoff goes.
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I'm certainly frustrated. NFG I felt was a good candidate, and I still feel he is, I've already said that wasn't purely self-preservation. As far as other candidates, it seems like we're being limited in who we can target based on this trust list of DT which none of us know who exactly is on it. I still think the list of five people that voted for the two villagers who've been lynched is a good place to look. I can see the argument that some of them were just "following Jack" but that's a good place for a wolf to hide. NFG is one of those, yes? CR is another, who I'd definitely consider. How does DT feel about him? |
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Not really, I understand you don't agree with it (either cause you are a wolf or you know you're a villager), but you are one of a group of players who I think has some suspicious votes. The primary reason I voted for you, was the way you responded to that. |
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Alright, thanks for your reasoning. I still disagree that they aren't suspicious, but yeah, I guess that's because I know I'm a villager. I'm sorry I tried to defend my voting.. should I have just kept silent? |
CR is actually still on my suspect list as well. I'll tell you what, since I have already unvoted three time, I will unvote you for now and see what develops before I check in again.
Unvote Jackal I do really need to go now |
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Defending your votes is fine, this is a game of disagreement :) |
I wont be back till very late tonight so I hope all goes well.
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unvote danny
We'll see what develops. |
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He was pretty vocal when he had votes on him but once that was over I don't recall much since. I'd be willing to vote him again. |
@5:01pm - nothing specific to say. nothing to say to you privately as far as voting that I wouldn't say publicly
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I know you also mentioned saldana's and Telle's voting record and they've gotten very little attention. I don't understand why Jackal's record stands out any more than theirs, except for what you say about his being willing to vote anywhere but himself and being possibly frustrated. My gut says we've got some (plural) wolves laying low. |
As a matter of fact, to put my money where my mouth is:
UNVOTE PURDUEBRAD VOTE TELLE Per usual, mostly just curious to see what will happen. |
ntn and chief rum are both "available to vote on" if you will.
guys - I have a good trust list but I don't want to publicly reveal it yet and put targets on those people. it makes no sense right now. I am sure its frustrating, but im trying not to say too much. ntn and chief rum are both "no information". chief is on the "no way to verify his power wasgood for the village" list and ntn is on the "pushed to use power against autumn" list and the "could be tested under right circumstances. note that the push against autumn is not automatically damming in my mind. @cape league game |
Me, a GM and a clock. Quiet afternoon.
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