I hate to toot my own horn, but he's actually reiterating a point I had made several times before that.

But I agree. Still, I'd rather hold off on more analysis until day breaks.

Thanks for reminding me about DT. His no vote on Day One and quick vote early today still makes me suspicious. But then he did switch his vote to EF early on, and didn't switch out.

If PB is indeed a villager, then he comes off better there. If PB is a wolf, I think DT will be the most deserving target for a vote.

I am interested to know who the seer scanned last night, and I hope they'll scan PB tonight. Not sure when they should come out, but at least when they do, we will have some more critical information with which to judge our votes.

You spent all day today saying you weren't going to bother fighting it too, right?

I can't deny that.

Okay, since it looks like not even this has me at all cleared, I beg that everyone in the game focus all your energies and powers on me tonight, good, bad, independent win conditions, sexy (especially sexy), whatever, scan me, probe me, search me, sniff me, strip me, hug me, love me, spoon me, whatever but damn, I promise that I am good.

Still, I can't deny it was a little uncanny of hoops to call him out like that. Luck or not, hoops inadvertently led us to our first wolf.

Good point.

You aren't cleared PB but you're in much better shape especially if Lathum backs off and we figure out what the hell he's up to.

Off for some WoW.

Server?

PB, you have to admit your late vote on NTN day 1 looks pretty bad considering EF came up wolf

that's a fair point

Oh yeah, no doubt. I tried too hard not to use the usual grudges (hoops, EF) for votes and unfortunately that is my only defense. That and, as you guys have heard, I keyed in on an either existent or non-existent ntn-Telle dynamic.

Sorry but I just don't see what you mean.

Hoops voted early on EF day 1 and was stuck there and then today he voted early on PB and stayed there.

Where's that 350 pound masseuse?

She's got quite the appetite, she's all yours PB.

you should keep in mind that you're always suspicious of me though :banghead:

i could reveal as the seer and you would still probably claim that i was bad

I left my vote on PB while discussing EF? Yeah, cuz we were like...at least 6 hours away from deadline (i forget what time it was exactly). Moving my vote willy nilly at that point does nothing, particularly because idk if we know what the tiebreaker might be.

For all we know, lathum's ability may have been triggered by getting enough of us to follow him on a vote, so maybe there was nothing wrong with my vote? Not like it got a roled villager lynched or anything. As a matter of fact, my eventual vote (quite early) helped us lynch a wolf.

And I would argue that Autumn and I and you to some extent, started discussing EF as a potential wolf at about the same time. I'm not about to go back and look at timestamps to verify that, but that is the way that it "felt" to me.

So if I had to guess right now who are wolves I would say PB, Hoops and Poli. The way Poli is saying hoops is cleared is confusing me.

I'm only saying this in case I befall some horrible fate.

I also very publicly declared that EF should be scanned yesterday (during the night action period when very few people were posting) and that I wanted an NTN/EF run-off yesterday.

But I was on the wrong horse today, so I understand that I'm going to draw some suspicion. I'm fine with that; will be happy to talk further about my play tomorrow assuming I'm around.

When has that ever happened! :D

By the way, I hope that the bodyguard has paid attention to the thread today. I think that his potential targets to guard should be a pretty small list.

As Chief has noted, we should have some really good vote analysis. I'm going to start on that in the next couple of minutes. My thought is that it is good to publish this now so that the seer has an option to consider it for his selection.

Do others agree with this, or is there concern that posting the vote tree - and the analysis - helps the wolves with target selection?

i don't see how it can help them more than it will help us (the villagers)

I'm cool with it

People I trust: Poli, Autumn, Lathum

People I don't: Telle, Hoops, The Jackal

Middle-ground: The rest of you

OK, going to hit the showers now then will start working on it. Day 1 is already posted in case others want to take a shot and I had Day 2 already done up until I left for soccer. So I should be able to get working on it in the next hour, for sure.

:banghead:

actualy, Poli's late vote on EF looks pretty good

Not sure. Winterhoof? Does that make sense? That's the world I'm in.

I'm still kind of new to that game.

Yeah. Anetheron here.

Me too, I haven't played all that much.

Lightinghoof and Feathermoon

I went back through and looked. I think even though it was obvious that I was questioning Telle and obviously was not buying what she said, I didn't actually mention Eaglefan until I voted for him and explained that it felt to me that EF and Telle were in cahoots on day 1 and not Telle protecting ntn as some others claimed. Your posts were shortly after that, so I'll accept that you were near the start. I'm going to leave it at that as for me to go further in what my recap was I think would give too much of a roadmap for wolves to target tonight. It can be a conversation for tomorrow if people really want it.

Like I said before, my focus tomorrow is likely on Telle. your posts wern't sitting well with me likely because I had made up my mind about Eaglefan before you had started posting about him (and I often get tunnelvision on things). So this probably isn't really a line of discussion that is going to be too fruitful to continue really.

It does. You could make a case for it being a trust gainer after the issue was decided. But there was some chance for vote movement still, so it seems a chancy move.

I want to look back at the vote with the possibility of a wolf/wolf showdown though and see what that suggests.

Sorry, forgot Alan. Fixed.

Altar of Storms, although I don't play anymore. They broked my class.

I'm not quite on the same boat as you about Lathum yet. I'll be nice and say that his perspective of the first two days and what they mean are about as completely opposite of mine as can be imagined. Part of me still wonders if he was completely honest with us, but in the end this isn't really a road I am ready to head down just yet.

lol, you really are unbelievable sometimes

I still don't believe that PB is bad right now, but this exercise could likely be fairly easy in attempting to see who wanted a third party instead of PB or EF on day 1 (ntn votes) plus a third party instead of the two today (Telle or Hoops vots). But more than just the votes, who actively pursued third options when it was just them on the block.

When I looked at this early this morning when I was trying to reconvince myself if I felt PB was still likely good, I noticed that the day 1 run off was EF + ntn at first, and ntn was slightly leading. Ntn showed up in the thread (there were actual posts stating he was there then), and suddenly votes started moving to a third party at that point (ended up being PB after a few other options were tossed about). Right now the strongest feeling i have are the people who were trying to keep the vote off of EF when ntn showed up (and it became likely some ntn voters might bail anyways now he was there).

I don't get what you mean. You have said tonight that you feel PB is still bad (which I don't). You have listed several people as your top targets such as Poli who isn't anywhere near my untrust list just yet, and you completely ignore the person who seems the most untrusted to me (Telle).

Like I said, you and I are seeing things from completely opposite perspectives right now. It makes me wonder why that is. That is all I said.

Atleast it can be said Lathum has his own agenda. Lathum do you have your own victory conditions? I'm still not getting why you had to vote PB today and that even though you voted PB an EF lynch was good for you as well.


I'm not sure what to make of the above quote.

Which?

I would like us to also keep in our minds the presence of those with different win conditions than us and the Needies. The Jackal is one, who knows how many more there are or how that could play out in voting or other actions.

I think you have to add DT and clap in there as honorable mentions.

By the way, I totally meant to 'accidentally' forget to unvote EF. :devil:

dubb, we're on the same wavelength there.

Lathum, please don't be offended if I'm wrong and these are your actual thoughts. With your discussion with Alan T and then this post, I'm wondering something really odd.

1- Are you allowed to post your real beliefs?

2- Do you have to post the opposite of what you really believe?

3- Have you ever played World of Warcraft?


See, number three tests his answer to #2.

Let me make it clear that my main win condition is winning with the group and that I won't do anything for any side-condition that jeopardises that. I'm not just a loner or anything.

My mage. Spirit=gay

Anyone who was geared for the spirit buff/changes in general had to of been massively undergeared and near the bottom of their guilds damage meters prior to the patch.

Having said that, I hope whatever Lathum did/will be able to do has a positive impact for all of us, not just for him.

Vote/unvote chart from Day 2:
790 - Lathum votes PB 1-0
810 - DT votes PB 2-0
822 - Hoops votes PB 3-0
823 - Clap votes PB 4-0
846 - Dubb votes PB 5-0
875 - Clap unvotes PB 4-0
951 - Alan votes EF 4-1 PB over EF
969 - Autumn votes EF 4-2 PB over EF
971 - DT unvotes PB votes EF 3-3 PB/EF
985 - BK votes Hoops 3-3-1 PB/EF over Hoops
1001 - Dubb unvotes PB 3-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1014 - Dubb votes EF 4-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1016 - Pass votes Hoops 4-2-2 EF over PB/Hoops
1017 - PB votes Hoops 4-3-2 EF over Hoops over PB
1020 - Telle votes PB 4-3-3 EF over Hoops/PB
1045 - Abe votes PB 4-4-3 EF/PB over Hoops
1047 - Jackal votes EF 5-4-3 EF over PB over Hoops
1050 - Jackal unvotes EF, votes PB 5-4-3 PB over EF over Hoops
1080 - Saldana votes EF 5-5-3 PB/EF over Hoops
1112 - MartinD votes EF 6-5-3 EF over PB over Hoops
1120 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes PB 6-6-2 EF/PB over Hoops
1123 - PF votes EF 7-6-2 EF over PB over Hoops
1137 - Lerriuqs votes PB 7-7-2 EF/PB over Hoops
1157 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes EF 8-7-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1166 - Chief votes PB 8-8-1 EF/PB over Hoops
1169 - PB unvotes Hoops, votes EF 9-8 EF over PB
1194 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes Hoops 8-8-1 EF/PB over Hoops
1199 - Poli votes PB, votes 9-8-1 PB over EF over Hoops
1256 - INVALID - no unvote (Pass votes Telle), votes 9-8-1 PB over EF over Hoops
1258 - PB unvotes EF, votes Telle 9-7-1-1 PB over EF over Hoops/Telle
1261 - Poli unvotes PB, votes Telle 8-7-2-1 PB over EF over Telle over Hoops
1265 - BK unvotes PB, votes Hoops 7-7-2-2 EF/PB over Telle/Hoops
1285 - Clap votes Telle 7-7-3-2 EF/PB over Telle over Hoops
1291 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes Telle 7-7-4-1 EF/PB over Telle over Hoops
1315 - PB unvotes Telle, votes EF 8-7-3-1 EF over PB over Telle over Hoops
1318 - Poli unvotes Telle, votes EF 9-7-2-1 EF over PB over Telle over Hoops

Sucks. My best is a priest and she's only 72 so I haven't even gotten to experience high level armor/build concerns.

Yea, I guess my major issue was I spent the time getting T 7.5, well most of it, the robes were teh suck, and all the other best raid epic gear I could only to have blizz re-build my class to the point where I would have been forced to re-gear just to get into ulduar. Fuck that. Blizz needs to just learn to leave some things alone sometimes. Classes shouldn't have their mechanics radically redesigned by a patch. That is what expansions are for. Slight tweaks are what patches are for.

Something like spirit which was avoided like the plague by all high level raiding mages with a brain all of a sudden becomes a HUGE mechanic to the class while other passive buffs get nerfed in an effort to force us to re-gear and stack spirit....that is a radical mechanic redesign.

I have no seperate win condition, I win with the village and no onger have my own agenda, I did everything I needed to do today and we got a wolf to boot, hence a good day for me and the village

it will

Well that sort've bothers me that we're not going to learn nothing about that.

yes

no

yes

Hrm, I tricked myself into a double negative. I meant we're not going to learn anything about that.

If you say it will, hopefully it will.

If you have no separate win condition, why did you need to do things?

Thanks Lathum, guess I'm wrong and you actually do think I'm a wolf. That's okay though, I trust you still.

BK, Pass and PB seem interested in driving third candidates today, looking at things that way.

I said earlier I needed to trigger something for my role.

I hope I havent said to much

EagleFan votes, Day 1:
251 - votes PB
323 - unvotes PB, votes Hoops
372 - unvotes Hoops, votes PB
381 - unvotes PB, votes Lathum (note - I initially had this down incorrectly on my spreadsheet posted earlier, showed PB with vote change and not EF)
452 - unvotes Lathum, votes PB (at this point EF had 4 votes, NTN 3, this was 2nd vote on PB)
713 - unvotes PB, votes NTN (sealed vote on NTN right at deadline, 7-5)

Lathum, looking back, did something happen just prior to your "no, no, no" post that was your final trigger? Or was it more than a half hour earlier or later?

I guess that's where I started miscounting then. Didn't EF "forget" some sort of formatting and it still count?

I was as well. I still have to think about Telle, to be honest.

EF's thing was Day 1. And I was kidding -- I actually didn't really mean to 'forget'.

Well, there I was giving you credit. :)

that post had nothing to do with it

Well, I'm getting ready to leave for the night and I'm not done trying to figure out Lathum's play today (unless his win condition is for some reason to get me lynched, which Danny would probably do to me).

You've seen my trust and distrust list and I hope you are all using your myriad of powers on me tonight.

What I consider important Day 1 votes:

396 - Lathum unvotes Abe, votes EF (first person to 3 votes on day, vote did not move off EF after this)
416 - Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes EF (pushes EF up to 4 votes, all of a sudden wolves not looking so good, 2 vote lead over NTN. Vote never moves after this)
420 - BK votes NTN (closes gap to 1, vote never moves)
425 - Abe votes NTN (ties it, vote never moves)
443 - Pass unvotes NTN, votes No Lynch (no real comment, see later post)
455 - Autumn votes PB (moves PB within 1, after earlier expressing desire for 3rd candidate, vote will move again)
532 - Pass votes for NTN (ties it back up again after realizing No Lynch is not much of an option. Vote does not move again)
536 - PB unvotes EF, votes NTN (big two vote swing, 5-3 NTN now. PB's vote will move again)
577 - Telle unvotes Abe, puts PB in 2nd, ahead of EF (5-4-3, Telle's vote does not move again)
581 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (4-4-3 between three main candidates, PB is moving his vote again. Note that putting vote on a non-candidate gives him maximum flexibility for later)
595 - MartinD votes PB (puts him in lead, 5-4-3, MartinD's vote does not move)
603 - NTN unvotes PF, votes PB (two vote lead for PB now, fast runup on votes for him as 3rd candidate)
604 - Autumn unvotes PB, votes Telle (narrows gap again, that is last vote move for Autumn)
605 - Chief votes EF (ties EF with NTN, one back of PB. No vote moves from Chief after this)
668 - Poli moves his vote from a fringe candidate to another non-leader in Telle (who now moves to 3 votes, 2 off the lead. No further moves by Poli)
669 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (ties it again with NTN instead of the wolf EF. Not done moving yet)
679 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (realizing that Telle is in striking distance, but leaving him in lead. Still one more move from him left)
699 - Alan votes NTN (puts him in tie with PB)
701 - NTN unvotes PB, votes Telle (NTN puts himself back in lead, now three way tie for 2nd. Not his last move)
707 - NTN unvotes Telle, votes EF (villager picks wolf in his last move, ties it up close to deadlin)
711 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (wrong choice between villager and wolf)
713 - EF finishes it off

Day 1 impressions, will obviously change with Day 2 info:
Looking good - Lathum, Dubb, Chief
Looking bad - Alan, Pass, BK, Abe
Looking worst of all - PB (deadline vote, chose wrong between villager/wolf)

Wahoo.

I fully accept looking bad day 1 with what we know now. That is fine with me. I think this recap is simplistic. I think it completely ignores the middle movement when it was a NTN - EF race where the votes shifted to PB. People commented often that people were trying to save NTN, but I still feel that it was an attempt to save EF instead. Telle and MartinD belong in that group and I feel they look worse then anyone else.

why? because i voted PB before i went to bed and then unvoted him in the morning? that's stupid

What I consider important Day 2 votes (outside of obvious "pretty much all of them" in two-horse race):
810 - DT follows Lathum on PB (2nd vote, important because DT is suggesting that he deserves significant credit for his early vote on EF)
846/875 - both Clap and Dubb unvote PB, bringing the margin back down from 5-0 to 3-0
951 - Alan throws out 2nd candidate, who turns out to be a wolf
969 - Autumn backs Alan on 2nd candidate
971 - DT changes horses, tying it back up 3-3
985 - BK votes me, introducing 3rd candidate (more noteworthy because he had a bad vote the previous day, not his last vote on this day)
1016 - Pass follows BK on me (same logic as BK, 2nd bad vote for him, not his last vote)
1017 - PB follows on me (once again foregoing an opportunity to vote for EF, tally is now 4-3-2 EF/Me/PB)
1020 - Telle votes PB (locked in)
1045 - Abe votes PB (locked in, 2nd day in a row he not voted for wolf when wolf was in lead)
1047/1050 - Jackal votes for wolf EF, then switches to PB (locked in)
1080 - Saldana votes EF (ties it, but will move his vote later)
1112 - MartinD votes EF (breaks tie, vote doesn't move. big vote, in my mind)
1120 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes PB (again missing a chance to vote for a known wolf, not done moving yet)
1123 - PF votes EF (see MartinD above)
1137 - Lerriuqs votes PB (ties it again)
1157 - Pass unvotes Hoops, votes EF (puts wolf in lead, would be huge vote except for #1256)
1166 - Chief votes PB, ties it (changing gears from yesterday, hard for me to condemn it too much when his voting pattern matches my own)
1169 - PB unvotes me, votes EF (self-defense, good vote)
1194 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes me (tying it up, not a good vote at all, he stays here for duration)
1199 - Poli votes PB (misses chance to vote for known wolf, puts PB in lead, but will move again at deadline)
1256 - Pass forgets to unvotes, casts vote for Telle (important because his vote was on EF, which was critical down the stretch but it does not seem he wanted his vote there)
1258 - PB unvotes EF, votes Telle (puts himself up 2, Telle is way back)
1261 - Poli unvotes PB, follows on Telle (2nd vote change, neither on EF, but unvote on PB puts EF at more risk)
1265 - BK is back to voting for me, unvoting EF (still has not voted for EF in the game, although this unvote ties it)
1285 - Clap votes Telle (Telle is now 3 back of co-leaders)
1291 - BK unvotes me, votes Telle (fast rising candidate, again missing a chance to put in a really good vote on EF)
1315 - PB unvotes Telle, votes EF (complete self-preservation)
1318 - Poli unvotes Telle, votes EF (deadline snipe, probably open for interpreation)

Day 2 impressions (not in a vacuum, combined with Day 1 vibe):
Looking good - Alan, Autumn, MartinD, PackerFanatic
Looking bad (this is harder, not sure what to make of PB) - BK, Abe, Clap, Saldana
Unsure - PB (key player, needs to be understood), Saldana, Clap, DT

Fully agree that it is somewhat simplistic, but I think it goes a little beyond just the votes as the timing of the votes (with all the unvotes) was pretty important.

I would argue that MartinD's vote today looks very good, so he is not on my radar the same way he appears to be for you.

I've got Telle in a middle group. She has been up and down in voting the last two days during late action; not quite sure what to make of that.

Telle's posts were definitely more "save NTN" than they were "save EF", but the people I thought pushed the hardest for 3rd candidates on Day 1 were Telle and Autumn. I feel better about Autumn right now than I do Telle, but Telle is not at the bottom of my list like she is for you. I've got her smack in the middle at the moment, pending further information on PB.

For what it is worth, I'm a little closer to believing PB = villager now than I was earlier. I got a sense of genuine remorse for having to put the vote on EF when he couldn't counter-vote. If he faked that, then good for him. I still think his voting patterns look very poor but I certainly acknowledge that he has been under duress most of the game and that makes it tougher to make good decisions.

Why am I looking bad, exactly?

I've got Saldana on here twice. He probably belongs on the "unsure" at this point more than the "bad". But he is among the people who never voted for EF this game and today he actually took his vote off EF to chase me. Neither one of his votes have been on leading candidates, as Dubb got 1 vote D1 and I got 1 vote D2.

Good analysis Hoops. I found similar things in looking through them. I am leaning away from the possibility that Purdue is bad, though his voting record could be read as suspect. I voted Eaglefan this morning based on analysis that the wolves were trying to protect him in a runoff against PB. While there is an outside chance that they're both wolves, but PB is more important to the wolves, I'm going to operate for now with the assumption that that's not the case.

Here's another question. Who was still around near deadline that did not switch votes. I'm particularly wondering about those who voted a third candidate. If they were available to switch votes at the end and save EagleFan but didn't that speaks a lot -- assuming PB is good. If there vote was stuck because they were absent, not so much.

I would add Dubb to a looks good category. He voted for EagleFan both days, with votes that put EagleFan in a lead (4-2 both times). They were early votes but they certainly look good.

Not voting for EF on either day. On Day 1 you put in a vote that tied up NTN with EF at 4-4. On Day 2 you put in a vote that tied up PB with EF.

Both were reasonably early votes, where others had the opportunity to really settle the matter.

You've also suggested that you trust BK a lot back on Day 1, and his voting record is worse than yours at this point. Creating a linkage to him is probably not the best thing in the world in terms of my trust lists. I don't think that you are both bad (would be kinda ballsy for you to do if you were both wolves) but I think there is a pretty good chance that one of you is.

I'm the wrong guy to answer this. I was in and out yesterday during the last hour (around for last 10 minutes, I think) but completely missed last 75 minutes today.

Off to bed.

Agreed, I had him on the "good" list from D1 and he probably should be in that category after Day 2 as well.

I don't think that this is anything close to a full-blown trust list, but it hopefully serves as a tickler for people with roles when they are making decisions tonight.

Okay, fair enough.

Can't argue logic

I've got about 15 more minutes tonight if people want to talk about the lists.

I'll let people slot me where they feel comfortable on the lists. I think hindsight suggests I had a good D1 and not a very good D2.

If people do not think that I'm the right person to make the interpretation of the data, because they do not trust me then I would urge them to take their crack. I've posted all of my voting info in the thread. So have at it :)

If you are thinking of going BK tomorrow, I would instead prefer you vote me. Now, I'd rather you not vote either one, but if that's the way you are going, me over him please.

I"m off to bed, I won't make it to see the night results. Here's hoping good things happen.

I love how a good vote analysis flushes things out.

Interesting.

deadline?

Danny said he would be late and not to wait up on him. Let me find it and quote it real quick.

Post #1344

oh

I'm starting to think he was pretty damn serious about this whole don't wait up thing.

Yup, looks it

yeah. I'll be up a bit longer I hope. Getting deep into a poker tournament and doing some reading for school

Well, I'm still around. Where are you, CR?

Heh, wrapping up my export for my OOTP league. But then I'm off to bed.