wow seems like several people need to go to jail over this, and a new election held for that seat Have to say I'm a bit surprised that the Democrat in this race or the statewide Dem Party are not suing or doing something about that election. That's one of the clearest cases of voter fraud I've seen in a while.

I'm sure the devil is in the details, but on a surface level, I don't have mich of a problem with any of that.

Stand for something. Pass bills you believe in. Let the voters decide what they want.

That's a lot better plan than half-measures focus grouped to alienate no one but also excite no one.

There's not a lot they "can" do right now. It hasn't been certified, and I'm not sure the state courts have the power to order a new election while the board is still investigating (though the board can certainly call for a new election).

At this point, all they can do is keep the heat on so that, if nothing else, maybe the House can be shamed into not seating Harris (I'm uncertain who actually votes on that: the incumbent holdovers from the previous Congress, or the entirety of the incoming House).

This bill seems really focus grouped and IMO not really exciting. I agree with most of what's in there but none of it is really bold. It's really fairly mild stuff even it does seem common sense reforms. To me bold is a bill for Medicare for all or an immigration plan.

The independent redistricting commissions alone is a big deal that will never be agreed to by the GOP.

I'd like an amendment based on the language of the 2nd, ...the right to vote shall not be infringed. I think that's a no lose.

Not every bill.has to shake the world. As you say, these are common sense measures that seem like they should be in place.

I did not see this when it was first reported, but Mueller has been involved in a court case under seal. And surprisingly the media hasn't figured out who it is yet and why its under seal. Speculation is that its someone fighting the grand jury subpoena, and the defendant lost at least one appeal so far. Supposed to be some action on it on Dec 14. My totally uneducated guess is that its Erik Prince, but wild guesses have been Kushner, Pence, or Stone. Its not Andrew Miller the Stone associate who is fighting Mueller is his own lawsuit.


Mueller link seen in mystery grand jury appeal - POLITICO

They *should* just force a 2nd GOP primary in March and then a new special election in August.

I never know what thread these should go in. Trump suffices, I guess.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...xts-chief-says

So I guess Trump is not a fan of the deal Cohen might get from a judge:


Michael Cohen asks judge for no Prison Time.” You mean he can do all of the TERRIBLE, unrelated to Trump, things having to do with fraud, big loans, Taxis, etc., and not serve a long prison term? He makes up stories to get a GREAT & ALREADY reduced deal for himself, and get........his wife and father-in-law (who has the money?) off Scott Free. He lied for this outcome and should, in my opinion, serve a full and complete sentence.


good thing you aren't a judge then isn't Donald?

He is totally unhinged today

Who is this Scott Free character?

Twiiter has had some amusing answers.

More importantly, what kind of arrangement allows his wife and father in law to be on Scott Free? And why is he allowing this? I'm guessing this Scott Free guy is a total jerk if they are stuck on him. I'd be trying to get them off of him too.

Scott Free is a New God and the son of HighFather, and you don't want to be stuck on or mess with them:


Mister Miracle - Wikipedia


(couldn't resist the nerdy comic book reference)

I don't know, but I bet he's got something to do with the fraud and big loans involving all those taxis.

Could be an interesting week in the Mueller probe. Flynn sentencing memo due on Tuesday, and Manafort and Cohen's memos are due Friday. Manafort's memo will be mostly if not altogether public. These all should give us a lot of insight into what Mueller has found:


Mueller preparing endgame for Russia probe

I think I'm at the point where trump is as guilty of obstruction of justice on so many levels, that it's like OJ. You know he did it, it's all right there, the pieces fit, but somewhere along the way, the thought is gnawing at the back of my head that nothing will ever come of it. And if that's the case, I'm so pessimistic that I think truth and justice will be a thing we used to have.

Spoiler alert: nothing is ever going to come of it. At least nothing that touches Trump in a personal level that impacts the presidency or his life after. If you haven’t come to terms with that yet, I feel bad for you.

The only thing that worries me is the whole "you can't indict a sitting president" is going to go all the way to the Supreme Court and is the only thing that gets Trump off the hook here. I think Mueller is being very smart about "telling his story" through the indictments/sentencing memos, etc. I think public outcry will be so bad that the Republicans will have no choice but to act on it if they want their party to not get another humiliating defeat in the House and maybe the Senate too. Someone(s) will stand up to him in the Republican primaries in 2020 and stop the madness, or Dems will not let Hillary/Bernie/Biden run and get someone with more age appeal to run against him.



I think Cohen flipping to the extreme that he appears to be is going to give Mueller a lot of info to work with will be key, and as Trump tweeted already about that, he's very worried.

If we decide to let that be true, and we might.

But there's already enough to shame him out of office. He was working with one of our chief rivals during his campaign in an effort to personally enrich himself. He even offered Putin a bribe. Then he spent years lying about it and directing others to lie.

With any other president and any other GOP, that's a really big deal.

There's not enough to shame HIM out of office, he has none.

If Republicans can be shamed, maybe. But I don't think that will work either at this point.

Now, I think if they are really serious about investigating his family's business dealings,* there might be indictments starting with the kids and perhaps waiting for him when he is out of office.


* The question is why haven't they been before, or if they have why hasn't anything stuck. Maybe it's just the idea that there has to be a good reason to start an investigation. But it's not as if people haven't thought his dealings were fishy before.

I break it down into legal, impeachment, and other political ramifications for the Mueller investigation.

Its obvious that Mueller has gotten many of Trump's inner circle on the legal stuff. I don't know if there is "enough" to get Trump in legal jeopardy, probably too much plausible deniability.

Fair chance the House will vote to impeach but the Senate won't process it, so does it mean anything?

The other political ramifications are the 2020 elections and Trump's legacy. If Trump loses 2020, his legacy will be tarnished. If he wins re-election, it will show that the US supports him regardless of all his faults (pros outweigh the cons) and reaffirms the 2016 decision (regardless of Russian interference).

It's like people don't remember our long history of powerful men in this country getting away with crimes. Clinton committed perjury and stayed in office. HW was involved in Iran-Contra and pardoned his way out of being implicated. Reagan was involved in that same criminal conspiracy. And you have Nixon who brazenly committed treason before taking office, as well as being pardoned for the many crimes he committed in office.

This country has 2 justice systems. One for the rich and powerful, and one for the rest of us. Once you realize which group Trump fall into, you can realize nothing will come of this besides historians looking down on his Presidency decades later.

I don't know what to think about this. Obviously a short-term (?) positive for the stock market and its likely that China will "import" more. I'm hoping Trump won't just accept that and declare a victory. The big sticking point for me is the technology infringement issues.

I guess I'll enjoy the rally while we figure this out.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/03/inves...nes/index.html

I think if Mueller goes after any of his family, especially Ivanka-I believe he might try to make a deal to keep them safe-after all we've seem short prison sentences (and maybe nothing for Cohen) for everyone involved so far outside of Manafort until he made his "deal" I don't think he pardons anybody outside his family unless its out of spite near the end of his presidency. We shall see.

I think too Nancy Pelosi now being the third in line for the Presidency is going to have some part to play in what happens down the road. Republicans surely won't want that, so not sure if they will try to work more with the Dems or not after the new House takes office.

I think the major uproar will be when his family starts getting indicted and he pardons them when it becomes clear they will be going away for a while.

He has no shame, so there is no "shaming" him into doing anything.

Stock market will be closed tomorrow in remembrance of Bush. What's the % chance Trump tweets something about how the market closing will ruin the big rally?

His grasp of thing is so superficial. He says thanks to the Saudis for lower oil prices, like they are the ones doing it, and he says thanks to the Saudis, without realizing that the Saudis can profit off of lower prices, while US companies really can't. The US companies can only be really competitive at higher prices, do to the extra cost associated with extraction.

I'm pretty sure that Stone and the others like him are making their big stands right now, saying they won't cooperate, fully reading the tea leaves and expecting a presidential pardon if they are convicted. They wouldn't be there without trump and his constant talk of strong, loyal, people he's worked with. It really shouldn't take a judge with much critical thinking to see where this becomes tampering, or threatening to the ongoing investigation. I think the evidence on obstruction has only gotten stronger as time has gone on, with every little thing that trump does to impede it. Many have been convicted on far less that what has played out over the last 2 years.



The obvious point is that the R's have signaled all the way, that they are playing a much bigger game, and part of that is having to ride the t-train as long as they can. If it's really all about power, who has it, and how long do they have it, the ethics of what do we need to do to keep it have completely disappeared. You're seeing this at the state level where incoming D governors are having powers stripped away that were available to R governors. You've seen it with McConnell and his denial of Garland. He's willing to make the power plays necessary to stay in power, and knows that the party will outlast trump, but while he's there, and ready to fight to stay there, they will do whatever is necessary to help keep him there.

About that rally.

This crap with the interest rates is straight up bullshit. Wife and I are putting in an offer for a house. Both with credit scores in the 800s. No debt to speak of. One of our cars is a lease. That is it. No student loans, cc debt, nothing. Interest rate on the ore approval was 5%. We had one in the threes on 2012.

Guess not.

Man, I'm usually pretty good at jinxing things, but today I outdid myself.

In fairness, your post was before the President tweeted showing he doesn't understand what a tariff is.

I'm not sure I knew he was officially running, but Michael Avernatti withdraws from the 2020 Presidential election.

I haven't sent out the letter yet, but I am also not going to run for president in 2020.

Since your odds of getting it were the same as his, it makes sense for you to make this snnouncement

Dammit, now I'm going to have to vote for Hillary.

Banner economic day. Market drops 800 points and local gas goes up 41 cents mid-day.

Make America Rich Again

Mueller recommends no jail time in a mostly redacted sentencing memo on Flynn. He met 19 times with him and was helpful with the transition team and Russian govt officials and assistance on a separate matter.


Robert Mueller releases heavily-redacted Michael Flynn memo — and recommends no prison after cooperation


I guess someday we will see the extent of his cooperation, but I'm just finding these small to no jail sentences to be very discouraging. There should be some minimum time people have to spend in jail here. I mean this is not stealing a car-this is potential collusion with our enemies and election interference. I think the judge will give him some jail time, but man people have all sorts of incentive here to break the law if they get little jail time out of it.

The.Dow is over 25000 and I just filled up here in St louis this afternoon for $1.85. I mean I wont argue Trump is anything but a shitty president but damn you cant bitch about this and ignore the Dow is up from like 19000 and gas down from lime 2.75 when Trump was elected. It's like complaining about a 5 game losing streak on a team that's 55-20.

I was just pointing out that today kinda sucked. Pretty sure I didn't even mention Trump...

Sure....

Again I prefer Libertarians to both and Democrats to Trump but crediting/blaming the economy on the president is kind of pointless. And it seems to come up in this thread (the Trump presidency that you posted it in) quite a bit. Just doesnt make a whole lot of sense because the Dow and gas prices are some of the few positives of the Trump presidency. One can argue the economy isn't just the Dow (and I agree) but that's for sure the to go to complaint on the bad days and ignored during its 25% rise.

Seriously, you don't know what you're talking about. One, I'm a conservative who has been pushed away from the Republican party and been voting Libertarian in national elections the past 12 years. Two, while I consider Trump a shitty conservative for his anti-free trade stance and I had no use for his cheap publicity stunt tax cut that ballooned the deficit, the economy isn't really on my radar as far as Trump gripes. He could leave office with $.85 gas and the Dow at 30,000 and it still wouldn't undue the disgraceful way he has soiled the Office.

It's America. Two different justice systems.

Besides, Trump himself was taking credit when the markets were rising. So he should expect credit when they fall too.

This is poker. Trump is dangling pardons and the 'free conscious' of fighting the liars, for those who stand fast with him and Mueller is saying to those that are in between, thinking about what to do, that if you cooperate they will let you off and have the 'free conscious' of cooperating. Fascinating stuff.

Well your post was about a one day drop in the market and rise in gas prices so again not really sure what the point was then of the original post as it doesn't go along with any of this at all. Don't disagree with the other stuff you have said but your original post was gas and Dow with an "Amen" from the echo chamber on here.

This has turned into the general "political/economic news of the day" thread around here. But I'll make sure to better coordinate who responds to my posts from now on, thanks for the tip.

Sure don't disagree that Trump is a narcissist and bring this on himself and on top of that 3-4 posts in I don't have the most comfortable feeling that I am somehow in the position of defending the guy but good lord there is plenty to criticize the guy over a one day blemish on the stock market and pretty significantly low gas prices would not be one of them.

Generally in federal criminal court (i.e. indigent drug and gun guys), cooperators don't get breaks this large because the government still has all the leverage. In my office, defendants are not given any promises if they want to cooperate. They tell the government what they know, and they take their chances.

Here's some very rough info on reduced sentences expressly based on substantial assistance: https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/f...17/Table30.pdf

So guys, in general, can get about half their time reduced. Some get more, and some get less. And, in reality, it's a lot more complicated because the prosecutor has a lot of power over what the recommended sentence is in the first place. (For instance, there is a common federal gun charge that carries a five-year mandatory consecutive sentence to whatever else you get. A prosecutor can decide not to bring that charge, which is effectively a 60-month reduction that would not show up on a chart like this).

All of which is to say this case is different. It is much closer to a negotiation between equals. Flynn, etc. have the non-zero possibility of a pardon out there, so if Mueller plays hardball, they will just try to rely on that. Also, this isn't a case of Mueller trying to go after some rando drug dealer in Roanoke. His targets are high profile, and there's a very limited universe of guys who were inside enough to have the information that he needs. He can't just keep arresting street-level drug dealers until he finds one who will flip in exchange for 6 months off his sentence.

So Flynn has a lot of leverage, and his lawyers know that and maximized it. It isn't typical, but nothing about investigating a foreign power attacking our elections is typical.

It would seem that this is also an opportunity to send a message to others that may potentially cooperate. Mueller can signal that telling the whole story will be generously rewarded, and with the Manafort stuff, he's also saying lying will be harshly punished.

I would say that - like Trump, ironically - you are bringing it on yourself. I was just posting my amazement/frustration over both things occurring at the same time. Mainly, that I figured on Monday that I could wait until Tuesday to fill up, and it cost me $8 for nothing. :)

Great point.

If I had any connection to anything shady regarding Russian interference, and my last name weren't Trump, I'd be all-in with Mueller.

I think it is very likely that Trump will pardon himself and his family members for anything that they did or might have done. But I'd be very reluctant to rely on that if I weren't that close to him. He's a mercurial narcissist who seems incapable of showing loyalty and has a history of screwing over his business partners.

I'm not saying that Trump won't pardon the whole group of them. I really have no idea. But does anyone doubt that he'd have no trouble letting all of these loyal guys rot in federal prison if he got a notion that he might have a slightly bad news cycle if he pardoned them?

Thanks for the explanations with sentence terms and plea deals. I just think the starting point for these are just too low-14 days for Papadoplous and the suggested none for Flynn. These guys are lying to Congress and the FBI, as well as election crimes and collusion with a foreign government-they shouldn't be rewarded for finally telling the truth because they got caught lying. They need to see the inside of a jail for a while and learn what's it like to not have all the things they have outside of jail. I'm okay with them making deals, but there should be more punishment involved for these types of crimes.

I think Trump will only pardon himself and his family. He dangles a pardon just to get people to stay loyal to him.

Trump has shown pretty clearly that loyalty to him is a one way street, why anyone would trust him is beyond me. His loyalty to you is equal to what perceived value you are bringing him today.

Family aside of course.

Even with family he seems more concerned with how they reflect on him than anything else.

Great eulogy by W. The last couple of lines brought tears to my eyes. Your father would be proud, sir.

George W. Bush cries delivering eulogy for his father, George H.W. Bush (Full Eulogy) - YouTube

I agree with this but it would give me some incentive to vote for him in 2020. If the market is stumbling and economy is in a recession, it'll definitely give me less incentive to consider him.

Stock market and economy isn't everything but its pretty darn important.

Anyone can support certain policies. Not everyone can act like a President.

As usual, I found the video of W slipping Michelle Obama a piece of candy, even at his father's funeral, ridiculously touching.

I know this is a hypothetical but I would beg you not to vote for a white supremacist no matter the state of the economy :(

I honestly don't see Trump as a white supremacist. They are part of his base and he does cater to them for support, there are undertones but not to that level IMO.

There are plenty of other reasons not to support Trump in 2020. All I am saying is if the economy, stock market are doing really well and oil is way down, it will be an strong input (not necessarily the deciding one) in my decision.

(I do agree with Ksyrup that he has "soiled" the office).


.

The thinking error we make with presidents and the stock market and economy is that our starting baseline is incorrect. We assume a perfectly average president will result in, I guess, slow growth, and then anything above that = good president, and everything worse than that = bad president. But that's not the right baseline. The economy is impacted, primarily, by things other than the president. So the economy might trend up, but, it may have gone up even more with a competent president. And the economy might trend down, but, it may have trended down even worse with a less competent. An excellent president might contribute to stopping an inevitable recession from becoming a depression. A terrible president may preside over an OK time in the economy, when different policies and more competent president would have led to economic and technological booms.

And that's all assuming that the U.S. president has any significant impact on the economy at all. But if they do, the relationship has to be more complex.

Edit: I've actually never heard of a convincing explanation about anything a president actually did, on his own, to impact the economy. A president can react, in a limited way, to influence economic events that have already happened.

And you have to include the role of the legislative branch. Let's assume that Obama had great ideas that if written and passed would have led to a booming economy, but the GOP legislature kept that from happening. Does that make Obama a good or bad president?

But I'm more and more convinced that a sizable portion of the population wants to be ruled by a king, so seeing everything through the lens of a single point of action is unfortunately common.

Out of interest how 'short-termist' are you in nature - would you vote 'Trump' if the stocks are up and Oil is up even if the obvious fundamentals of the country are increasingly fouled and you can see a crash coming?

I'm asking because the current 'rally' is nearly entirely fuelled (imho) by the giveaway to corporations rather than anything real ... if you allow corporations to pay less taxes then yes they will post huge profits and yes their stocks will rise ... however this also means the debt for the country is increasing at a huge rate and the much needed investment in infrastructure etc. isn't happening ... as such at some point there will be a crash and it won't be pretty ...

(I can fully understand if you're only voting in terms of 'self' that you might ignore this and consider you can simply 'profit' from such a crash by adjusting your situation - I'm in a reasonable financial position myself but I worry about the world my kids are heading into, they're at University presently and will be attempting to make their way in their careers in 3-5 years time)

I had an economics teacher in high school who told us in 1987 that whoever wins the Presidency in 1988 was going to be a one-term President because we were at the end of a cycle and a recession was a certainty around 1990.

Things Presidents get way too much blame/credit for:

The stock market
the price of gas

This was my thought for the 2016 election, but the massive stimulus passed by the GOP may push that until after the 2020 election.

It’s a report of a report, and not sure where the Daily Beast fits into the political spectrum, but I saw this article at lunchtime...

Trump says he doesn't care about predicted US national debt explosion because ‘I won't be here’ | The Independent

And that Alex is all you need to know about Donald Trump. Democrats running for President in 2020 should show that in every campaign ad.

We move closer and closer to Boomsday.

I did say economy, stock, oil. I'm not saying healthy economy = healthy stock market or vice-versa but there is a relationship. Really, for oil, I'm okay with it being higher because I want us to grow our own oil capabilities and I want us to go to alternate fuels (go Tesla). Economy and Stock Market are probably in the Top 5 of importance to me.

I don't think you can see a crash coming. Sure there are symptoms and a select few have predicted crashes but have they done it consistently or just gotten lucky? I've been waiting for China's economy to crash for a while now but hasn't happened (I know they manipulate their nos. and what gets out to the public but you get the idea). So short of a crystal ball, I don't think anyone can see/time a crash coming.

Tax cuts definitely helped but do think its more than that. Trump is more business friendly (or at least perceived to be so) over the Democrats. Prior to this most recent "crash", most were saying the fundamentals were good etc. And although I believe Trump does get some credit, Obama and how he navigated us through the GR also gets credit.

So with all that said ...

• I don't believe one can predict a crash with any level of assurance or timing. So can't short the market and make money
• The deficit is enormous. As a % of GDP, in 2017 its close to where Obama got us to and left us. Sure there was a good reason, but there are always "good" reasons
• Regarding the deficits, if there was a candidate that truly will reduce the deficit I would seriously consider him/her. The reality is I've lost faith in either party doing this. Its not just the President but Congress also
• I do worry about the future for my kids. Best way to prepare them is to teach them about adaptability, not overspending, saving for retirement, learning other cultures and languages, getting into a good field where it won't be impacted (or reduced) by outsourcing, AI, China's growing dominance etc. This also includes leaving them an inheritance if possible

EDIT: an additional food for thought. I believe in immigration (I am one and I know you are thinking about being a citizen). The US is not making enough babies and unlike some others, I do believe there is plenty of space for more immigrants. I just want to greatly encourage the "right" immigration policy which, selfishly, means the higher educated but still provide means for the folks willing to do the work the US won't (e.g. guest worker programs).

Thanks for sending me down the rabbit hole of reviews about Corsi's book on trump on Amazon. That was a colossal waste of time. I'd keep saying, some people, but I'm afraid I'll find family members who have written reviews on this stuff.

He was primary figure behind the conspiracy theory that Obama wasn't a US citizen because he was black.

Is he wearing a white hood and burning crosses, no.

When you cater to a group, thus emboldening them and their actions, and giving strength to their rhetoric, you are equally as culpable.

Wow I thought Haley was a low bar for UN Ambassador. I was wrong. She is like Kissinger compared to this one. I think Trump picks these ones based on if he would sleep with them or not.
Trump to pick State Department spokeswoman for U.N. ambassador: source

Dang. You're not kidding.

Well I guess that's one way to put Fox News out of business-hire all their talent for the adminstration. Democrats will show her no mercy in the confirmation hearings.

Pretty sure he just hires people who say nice things about him on Fox News. Isn't Whitaker also a pundit for the network? The guy watches cable news all day, where else is he going to find candidates?

CNN evacuated during Don Lemon's show tonight by a bomb threat.

CNN got the bomb threat shortly after Trump tweeted again about fake news being the enemy of the people. He's clearly getting a head start on the big Mueller stories tomorrow-tweeted about Arizona along with the boarder (his spelling) and military bracing for a massive surge at a non-walled area, and calling on Chuck and Nancy to support the building of the wall, and then quote a few people on the Mueller investigation including Jerome Corsi. and why is the fake news harping on the Dems taking the House and not the Republicans adding to their Senate majority,



He's very very nervous right now.

We should agree on a definition of a "white supremacist" before going down this path so we are not talking past each other.

Can we skip 3 days of arguing about the definition of White Supremacist and just agree that Donald Trump is a racist piece of shit?

And, then, lets think about whether there is some level of economic gain that would justify, as a voter, supporting such open racism in any election anywhere, much less the president of the united states.


Unless you disagree that this president has a long and proud history of racist action and rhetoric - in which case there's no point in even having a conversation because we exist in different realities so far apart that it will be impossible to bridge them and find reasonable common ground.

My response: "there is not."

The response of mankind at various points throughout history: "As long as I get mine, everybody else can fuck off."

That's more or less what history tells us this conversation always boils down to. Individuals can do amazing things in defense of the marginalized.

En masse, though, people find it difficult to get incensed about the treatment of marginalized groups or racial/ethnic "others" if their own lives are comfortable.

The Baby Boomers have been spectacular in this regard.

Regarding the boomers, I find it particularly interesting that the generation was somewhat defined by films like Easy Rider, and to a large degree media spent the last 30-40 years suggesting that it was the anti-establishment hippies that overwhelmingly won that culture battle, yet the more and more hindsight we're given, the more it appears that the corporate conservatives were perhaps always the majority, and that's who leads and represents that generation today.

Even during the Vietnam War the Boomers were more supportive than older generations. The hippies were visible, but always less than a majority.

CNN has reported this morning the John Kelly is expecting to resign shortly-not holding my breath, but it would be a distraction to the Mueller news today,

Papadoplous has been released from prison, and is said to be travelling to DC with his wife for some conference of right-wing progandists.

Glad this guy keeps losing his elections:


Conservative pastor: ‘The floor of Congress is now going to look like an Islamic republic’ | TheHill

Woke Ammon Bundy is a plot twist I didn't see coming.

There's a celebrity he's starting to look like, I can't put my finger on it.

I figured Trump would be an exception to that "the presidency ages you" phenomenon, but, he does look like shit there.

Didn’t realise she was the fuckwit who used the Normandy landings as an example of the closeness of the US / Germany relationship.

Sounds like the perfect person to be the international face of US global reations :rolleyes: