Enough of the bickering with me involved...

Hey Blade, Alan said that none of your Hobbit family could grow hair on their feet. Go get him. :D

I haven't insisted that at all. The only thing i have insisted is that its not cut and dry on whether or not the bad guys knew who he was. I still say that this is not the meat of my discussion and was something interesting I noticed in following up in reading posts.

By no means was my intention to use Point B to prove point A was true when it had to be that point A was true for Point B to even matter. I feel like you all have been trying to turn this into a circular discussion about the part I found interesting rather than about what actually brought me to looking at you two in the first place.

You just seem really good at finding people to fuss at you today. I'm not really sure what to make of it....we could really use a CoT right now.

I'm not a bad guy, so of course I didn't know he was bad (or good, or anything else... I did think he was a good lynch candidate, but I thought the lack of a second viable candidate was a TERRIBLE idea, and I still think we misplayed that vote). Dunno about BrianD, obviously. I've gone into my reasons for thinking that the bad guys didn't know him, ad nauseum.

:confused:

We now know that day 2 was a villager vs. villager runoff. I don't understand the motives you're ascribing to the bad guys.

It almost looks to me like you set up a suspect list at some point from a working assumption that Lathum was a bad guy; if that's the case, I sincerely hope you've scrapped it completely and reworked it from scratch.

Really?


Care to revise that statement?

Is it so different from his play in Resident Evil? I don't trust his reasoning or conclusions, but I have no reason at this point to think he's a bad guy.

(I will say that all the flailing around at good guys is a good way for him to stay alive a long time, if not necessarily a winning strategy. :p)

I re-read the two quotes like 5 times and I apologize, but I don't see anything contradictory in there at all.

I will swear up and down that blindly stating that the bad guys did not know about Scoobz in any way pre-lynch as a fact is a bad and suspicious thing. I will swear up and down until we know otherwise that we don't know what possibilities there are.

No it isn't, and we all saw how well that turned out. :)

This thing is that this would be a perfect wolf strategy, but he plays it as a non-wolf too.

I am basing it more on the thought about why was Lathum killed last night. The fact Lathum's death wasn't a normal night kill and it likely came from a different direction of thought than the other night kills.

Actually for whatever its worth, this is much different than how I was in RE. In RE I came out pretty strongly every day as facts and pushed really hard on people.

So far this game, almost every fight i have been in has been brought onto me and I've defended myself (albeit defended loudly). I haven't come out once and said I know either of you are bad.

Perhaps everyone would rather it if I did what everyone else did and said: vote soandso because my gut tells me so.

Instead I try to give the reasoning why I came to the conclusion I did today and what is pushing my vote. I think it can stir up conversation and either lead to a consensus on someone, or lead to a new path.

Instead what happens is people have been taking everything super defensively and striking back (Blade, Schmidty, you, Mr.W, etc) and everyone else in the game is afraid to even jump in the discussion.

I dont have any problems with you defending yourself at all and I havent admitted that I know 100% anything about anyone. I do however have my instincts just like anyone else and thats all I can rely on.

I don't see that there's really anything to discern, though... from the point of view of the Saruman faction, they wouldn't mind picking off a member of the Sauron faction, so if they really thought Lathum was such, then there would be something to say for trying to push the vote that way -- but that doesn't distinguish them from anyone else in the game aside from the Sauron faction itself. Otherwise, neither faction has any reason to push anything... they can take care of him with their night kill, if they think it necessary, and with both candidates being good guys it's a good time to avoid drawing unnecessary attention.

Alan, I haven't been striking back. I felt very strongly about the Scoobz issue (less so with Tyrith's point about a prior game), but otherwise I've stayed out of debates with you.

Double dola, that should be, less so now.

So I am suspicious because of my late vote change and the fact that I thought there was no way the bad guys knew about Scoobz being dark (which I never stated), but you aren't using the fact that I thought there was no way the bad guys knew about Scoobz being dark (which I never stated) as a reason to prove that I'm suspicious. You really don't see a contradiction there?


Oh. My. God. Hi Alan, my name is Brian. You know, the guy you have been having a conversation with all day. How are you? I'm going to say this one more time, and I am going to type slowly to make sure that you get it.

I never said that the bad guys did not know about Scoobz in any way pre-lynch.

One more time.

I never said that the bad guys did not know about Scoobz in any way pre-lynch.

I said that I didn't think Scoobz was in either dark faction. I said the bad guys probably didn't know he was dark. I don't know the exact definition of "probably", but I generally use it to say between 50% and 100%. They might have known he was bad, or they might not. I lean toward the "not", but I never said that the bad guys did not know about Scoobz in any way pre-lynch (guess I got it in a third time).

Triple dola, if you can reference a summary of the votes cast during day 2, I'd be interested in seeing it.

I am curious then what do you think the reason for Saruman (or whoever) to have killed Lathum that night instead of someone else who was a veteran and hadn't had much heat on them? Some people still had Lathum in distrust lists and it wasn't a full stretch to think that he could end back up in lynch talks.

This was the day 2 votes you asked for.

I think i forgot what we are arguing about here.. As far as I know this discussion has gone:

1) I found the references to the bad guys not knowing scoobz was interesting based on my other suspicions and who was involved.
2) You tell me the rules stated that the bad guys don't know about Scoobz
3) I said that I felt there were ways within the rules that they could have known him regardless and not allowing for that possibility is wrong
4) It is suggested that I am insisting that you knew about Scoobz before hand
5) I say I am not insisting that you knew, just that I didn't like the possibility of it being ignored.

Repeat #4 and 5 over and over and over again.

To bring this back to the beginning again.. I found it interesting when reading your and Mr.W's posts -after- I had already built a suspicion list and referenced it. I don't know if you did or did not, but I think there is some open possibility of it being there.

I do not find anything in that statement factually wrong. You can disagree with my opinion or interpretation of the first 2 day's votes, but I did put alot of effort into trying to find what I -personally- felt was the most suspicious.

Heck I could be wrong, but at least I'm not saying vote briand because I just have a lucky feeling about it.

Haven't thought it through that far, honestly.

Maybe they thought he was getting too close to someone, or maybe they wanted us to think that. He is a vet, although I don't think, offhand, he had really gotten going in this game (but I'll admit, I haven't paid full attention in the first couple of days to the interplay).

Let me see if I can help.


No. This is actually the part we are arguing about. I didn't say the rules stated that the bad guyd didn't know about Scoobz. I said that the rules stated that Scoobz wasn't in a faction. I said that the bad guys probably didn't know about Scoobz, but that was just my opinion. I do not state that as fact, nor do I believe the rules address it. Two very different things here. The rules seem to confirm that Scoobz wasn't in a faction. I am guessing that the bad guys didn't know about him. Very different issues.


I am not disputing this. My argument is that you keep claiming that I am disputing this.


By all means, explore the possibility that I knew about Scoobz before hand. I know that I didn't, but explore it as much as you want. Just please understand that any claims I make about whether the bad guys knew about Scoobz was a guess at the game make-up and not discussed in the rule.


It looked to me like you were trying to build suspicion based on things I didn't actually say. If you want to look at my voting history or anything else and find me suspicious, fine. Just please understand that I am going to defend myself if you attribute something to me that I didn't really say.

I guess this is the point I have the misunderstanding then. I assumed because I was stating that I found it interesting your posts about whether the bad guys knew him or not. You actually were arguing a different point entirely then since I wasn't necessarily talking about factions or such as much.

So either you misinterpreted what I was getting at, or I misinterpreted your reply, but I was honestly confused why you kept arguing things that I wasn't even saying.

Well...

* Mine, Izulde's, and DodgerChick's are the last three votes on CR, guaranteeing that there will be a lynch (my vote that opened up the gap looked suspicious when we didn't know that Lathum was a good guy, but in that specific context it's now meaningless). Both Izulde and I have stated, openly, that we think it's better for the villagers to attempt a lynch. On the one hand, it's good for the bad guys to get a lynch, any lynch, on the other hand, the late votes might draw unwanted attention. I wouldn't say it's unreasonable to vote for us on this basis, although it's certainly not conclusive... the bad guys might just have gotten lucky that we did the dirty work for them.

* Schmidty, Blade, Thomkal, Gram, Spleen, and LSG cast "intermediate" votes on CR (between three and nine). This is a good area to bury a vote. Blade subsequently flipped to Lathum, which is basically a nonsensical move for a bad guy (unless it's an attempt to set a "latent" vote on a bad guy in an unknown faction).

* Myself, Swaggs, ntndeacon, and Sublime cast "intermediate" votes on Lathum. I subsequently flipped to CR, as discussed above.

The remaining votes are...
* Alan voted early for CR (second after now-dead saldana)
* st.cronin and Tyrith voted early for Lathum, with Tyrith flipping later to Swaggs (?)
* BrianD flipped relatively late from Spleen to Lathum.
* DaddyTorgo voted late for Lathum

I don't think I'm missing anything, besides a couple of early singleton votes.

Oops, forgot that st.cronin was dead. :o

Blade moved his vote to me, not Lathum

Right, I think I read the vote from the next line down. I don't think it really changes the analysis any, though.

No, I'm reading your analysis to see what I think. Just was pointing it out.

I'm going to get some work done for the next hour or 90 minutes. I have to head out for the night at 5:30pm EST and wont be back until after lynch (if not just before lynch). Most likely I won't be back.

So I'm going to shut up for a while and see if others have much to say before I decide what to do with my vote for today for sure. Hopefully others drive some good discussion on things.

Current votes:

(2) Ntndeacon - Alan (1247), Jonathan Ezarik (1248)
(1) Sublime - Blade (1207)
(1) Izulde - Lonestargirl (1185)
(1) Tyrith - Spleen (1202)
(1) Lonestargirl - Izulde (1237)
(1) Daddy Torgo - Swaggs (1258)
(1) Mr.Wednesday - Dodgerchick (1274)

Well, that makes us even because to me you were arguing things that I wasn't saying. To be honest, I still think you are misunderstanding what I was saying about the bad guys and Scoobz in the early days as well.

All along I've been thinking the bad guys probably didn't know about Scoobz. I viewed him (like Mr.Wed said) as a sorcerer-type roll. This is a total guess, and it makes sense to also evaluate things assuming I am wrong and the bad guys did know about him. I make no definitive statement either way. The part that made me argue was your belief that I was making a definitive statement.

If you still think the above belief is interesting, then feel free to use it in your analysis. This is what I have been trying to say all along.

For those that are new to this game: There isn't usually this much bickering between players. There are often misunderstandings and people do jump on each other for them, but they don't usually last so long, and there aren't usually so many.

For Alan: Even with all of our misunderstandings today, I haven't been taking (or meaning) anything personally. I knew you were either doing wolfy things or (more probably) not understanding what I was saying, so all is good.

Compared to some of the games I've been in, this is pretty mild. :)

Two of the people with votes right now are tops on my suspicion list and that is ntndeacon and LSG. We pushed a bit for something from them yesterday and got nothing but static posts.

LSG says she plays a quite game in general. I don’t see that. She usually plays with more aggressiveness. After accusations of UTR, She came out and said she was going to post some analysis and really never did. That whole vibe is really nagging me. I think something is wrong here.

Ntndeacon upon accusations of UTR spoke up and asked if we thought one side could kill and the other could not. Didn’t we have that whole conversation the prior day? I would have expected him to add something to it, but he just asked the basic question. On day one ntndeacon said we needed to consolidate votes and said he though Blade was suspicious and he could vote for him. Then he proceeded to place his vote on Swaggs who did not have any votres. That is neither consolidating as there were plenty of people with votes and it was not on Blade who he had said he was suspicious. I found that an odd play.

I can go with either of these options, for now:

VOTE LoneStarGirl

Really? This seemed overly rough. I guess I missed some of the good ones. :)

Hmm... don't everyone start a runoff at once. :p

ntndeacon and Sublime fit in the buried-on-Lathum contingent. LSG fits the buried-on-CR contingent. Izulde and I are in the late-move-to-get-a-lynch contingent. Tyrith had an early vote followed by a strange move, DaddyTorgo had a late semi-buried vote on Lathum.

And at this point, we could probably pick up an unlisted candidate if we wanted.

Oh, there were some epic blow-ups. The figures that I recall being involved are Blade, RealDeal, and Alan.

Dola, actually, with Gramm voting for LSG, we now have two candidates with two votes...

I had thought about voting for NTN, but then I fear Alan will point at me again for buddying up to him. I'm going to vote Izulde today. He put some pressure on people earlier for playing out of character (that I disagreed with), and he is voting for LSG who Blade seems to think might be important. I think I'll be around later tonight if things change.

Vote Izulde

You haven't played with me much, have you.... :)

I hate to even mention this as you have already linked me to Brian. But I read Scoobz death the same way. i.e. that he was a Dark independent player. We will have a better idea on that after the next bad guy dies, I would imagine. But that is not an inconsistent reading.

No, not that I recall...and I have a feeling that I would remember. :)

I, again, have absolutely no idea who to vote for today. AlanT scares me the most, since he can lead certain people to come to whatever conclusion he comes to. On the other hand, if he's not a wolf, we'd be losing a valuabe player if he were to be lynched. I guess for now, I'll listen to what he says, and vote:

Vote ntndeacon

You know, right now I could probably be convinced to lynch anyone except spleen or blade. But, unfortunately we can only kill one, and I think in the next two hours or so this seven candidate mess needs to become a two candidate mess. I don't want it to be LSG and ntn because they seem to be being grouped together in some people's conversations in the manner blade talked about izulde and sublime and how brian and mr.w are stuck together.

That said...I don't know. Brian and Mr.W have their advantages as lynch targets because they have been bickering with Alan, who is once again one of the big drivers of the conversation. We need to know about him sometime soon before he drives us over the cliff. I'd rather kill Brian because there seems to have been more suspicion on him lately, but Mr.W has a vote on him already. I'm somewhat ambivalent. I'd rather try to make a race than divide stuff more.

VOTE MR. W

Hrm, now Brian votes for Izulde. In terms of pure suspicion Izulde is probably on the top of my list now because of his grasping for straws against LSG. Sigh, damnit. I really want a good race more than anything else.

Looks like right now its:

(3) Ntndeacon - Alan (1247), Jonathan Ezarik (1248), Schmidty (1340)
(2) Lonestargirl - Izulde (1237), Grammaticus (1331)
(2) Izulde - Lonestargirl (1185), BrianD (1336)
(2) Mr.Wednesday - Dodgerchick (1274), Tyrith (1341)
(1) Sublime - Blade (1207)
(1) Tyrith - Spleen (1202)
(1) Daddy Torgo - Swaggs (1258)

I have 15-20 min till I have to leave until post-lynch so won't be able to change my vote at that point.

I won't be moving my vote to Lonestargirl or Izulde today. I could move my vote to Mr.W before I leave, but its doubtful. Unless something changes in the next 15-20 min, I likely will leave my vote on ntndeacon for the night.

I agree about Alan. Of course when and if he becomes a wolf he will probably do the same thing...leading discussion Imean. (Obviously idon't agree withyour vote. ANd iwill be back in about 2 hours to say more )

For the record we need nine votes to lynch today.

dola, the reason I won't be voting for Lonestargirl or Izulde is that I don't necessarily like the substance of the distrust between the two. It felt to me that it was a hunch vote based off of one's perception of voting styles, which the other reacted with the general "If you are voting for me then you must be a wolf" type mentality. The accusations back only increase the initial suspicion until you get to the point where both "feel" the other is a wolf but can't put any real finger on proof and make not fully convincing arguements.

It just feels like one of those types of arguements that end up with a villager vs villager matchup where one is lynched, shown to be good and everyone chases down the other to be lynched and find them also ending up to be good.

At this point in the game I really don't think we want to take the chance on spinning wheels that this is true.

I could be wrong about that, but that is the feeling I am getting from Izulde and Lonestargirl and their play so I don't really have much interest in seeing that be the matchup.

Id prefer sublime, but izulde is my #2

UNVOTE SUBLIME 2

VOTE IZULDE

We're off to the races!

UNVOTE MR. W
VOTE IZULDE

What is the case against Izulde? I have him down as being quite and noting that is his normal game style? I don't recall the game I played with him but it was at least one.

Well I'm out. Good luck villagers, I hope you don't shoot our side in the foot tonight. Back after lynch.

Both Alan and tyrith have openly stated they dont want it to be LSG or NTN lynched today...thats very interesting to me...

Where did you see that? Especially since Alan voted for ntndeacon?

Yeah, I saw that too and wondered, why is his vote on ntndeacon then? Oh well, probably nothing.

Oh, nevermind, I"m getting ntndeacon confused with Izulde... my bad

My bad, thought they said the same thing...the fact they both trust LSG is still interesting.

Oh it was tyrith that said that.

So much stuff being throw around I'm getting confused on who said what.

No, I believe I was trying to get at the fact I don't want LSG and ntn to be racing each other because they tend to be the targets of the same people. I would prefer we race people out of different pairings.

/ooc

BTW Tyrith, I noticed you live in Austin... are you a student?

I don't trust LSG...I don't trust ANYONE in this game. The person who I have least suspicion of being a bad guy is currently _voting for me_. But she's not my number one target today because I really haven't gotten any specific alarms from her yet.

Mhm, I'm going to UT-Austin right now. I should be working on a paper I have due tomorrow but I've been procrastinating all day while I'm playing WW and generally being a bum.

Am I missing something? Nobody is voting for you?

home and catching up...3.5 pages or so to go !

Hey, it is painful trying to catch up. Where have you been, bumming around?

Izulde has somewhat aligned with me. I'm not sure if I should be suspicious of that (in the sense that it might imply a bad guy trying to buddy up with me) or if that should make me want to back off of him (in the sense that the same logic that points to a lynch vote for Izulde also points to a lynch vote for me).

So for right now, I'm going to punt and vote for ntndeacon. I think I'll be back to check on developments before the deadline, but I'm not sure.

VOTE ntndeacon

3 pages to go

WHAT!?!? we lost 3!!!! last night!!! I have NEVER seen that happen before. Beautiful writeup Anxiety, but that was a big hit that we took there. Still processing my thoughts.

spleen is i think

Does anybody have a vote spread? I appear to be missing at least the Tyrith vote?

This was alans last post, and the two votes after it:

well, and yours on NTN

4 - izulde - lsg (1185), brian (1336), blade (1347), tyrith (1348)
4 - ntn - alan (1247), jonathan (1248), schmidty (1340), mr.w (1364)
2 - lsg - izulde (1237), gram (1331)
1 - daddy - swaggs (1258)
1 - mr.w - dodger (1274)
1 - tyrith - spleen (1202)

NO VOTE: daddy, ntn, sublime, thomkal

so we need 9 to lynch, and are missing four, so even if all four vote for ntn or izulde, we wont get a lynch... gram, izulde, swaggs, dodger or spleen need to move theirs

home and ready to vote now (i thing).

i've been at work...10:30-6:30 . and then 45 minutes to catch up on the 4 pages.

i find it surprising that Swaggs is claiming that my game is "wolfish" btw...my style of play is consistent between the 3 games. I do have a somewhat erratic work schedule so often my votes are early or late or changed from my phone (like in the last game where i nailed 2 wolves btw!). I tend to throw out a bunch of speculation when I have the chance to read, and at this point in my WW career I still tend to look to the more experienced players to analyze most of it.I'm just a townsman. Nothing exciting here.

As for my vote, I had advocated ntndeacon the other night (if someone wants to go back and find the post be my guest, I don't have the patience to go back and find it).

However the only other game I played with izulde he acted this exact same way when he was a wolf, throwing out speculation and accusation without any substance, trying to stir things up.

At this point I am going to assume that ntndeacon will vote for izulde in an attempt to save his own neck, so i am going to put my vote onto ntndeacon in order to maintain that likely tie.

I think if you asked me to choose between the two I would likely chose ntndeacon anyways. And I want to preemptively point out to those who will accuse me of bandwagoning that I was the person who originally brought ntndeacon up as a candidate the other night, and i have JUST gotten in the door from work.

I will be around from now till lynch with the exception of a run out for dinner & coffee

VOTE NTNDEACON

and ntn obviously won't vote for himself, so we'll need what...2 to move (can't do math, my head hurts)

I would just like to note that in a majority system there's no such thing as a true self defense vote. If there are enough votes on you for you to be the lynch then some of them will have to move because there's no way to tie a majority. Of course, you could cast a vote to keep the race close, but it's not quite the same thing.

There are 5 on ntn now. If sublime and thomkal vote for him, we indeed need two people to move.

Between ntndeacon and Izulde, I have to go with ntndeacon.

UNVOTE LoneStarGirl

VOTE Ntndeacon

I still want to vote for Tyrith today, but it looks like my vote will be needed for a lynch.

I have ntn with 5 and Izulde with 4 right at this moment. While I do suspect both of them, I still want Tyrith lynched today. Bah!

I am making this vote this way because this sort iof tactic worked for me in the Football Tryouts game beautifully. Although the situations aren't completely identical, let's see what happens with it.

UNVOTE Tyrith
VOTE Izulde

Ah, boo! :)

This vote beat mine in.

NTN 6
Izulde 5

I am out until 11:30 at the earliest, so I hope the next 2.5 hours goes well for the good guys. We need to lynch a baddie today.

I'm willing to go over to Izulde. I generally trust the people voting for him more than those voting for ntn right now. I don't want us to not have a lynch today.

Unvote Daddy Torgo

Vote Izulde

I guess it looks like there'll be nobody serving me drinks down at the tavern in any case, eh?

Izulde, are you a simple villager on the side of light?

care to elaborate on why the trust more for the people voting for izulde?
the motives for the votes seem about identical...are you talking about actually trusting those voters more because of things in this game?

I'm staying with my vote, because I've become more and more certain that LSG's a wolf, whereas ntdeacon I'm not sure about and if I did make the vote switch, it'd look like I was just trying to save my hide in any case.

Yes, a simple hobbit who likes to leave his warren about once every month or so and go to the tavern for a nice drink.

If you switch you'll probably make it more likely that someone will switch onto him later. I know ntn isn't going to give you the same mercy.

This is true, but mercy is the way of the Light.

He will swap, dont worry...izulde is just trying to say that, but if it comes down to his vote being needed or he dies, he will swap. Hes just trying to play all night right now, but its a falsity that will exposed in time. I think he believe, most likely with reason, that his vote being out of the equation makes it look closer then it is. That way, he can maybe draw an extra vote or two his way before he swaps.

Is your name similar to that of Chief Rum's character?

i will switch off off izulde to ntn if it helps the lynch. I really dont have a grasp on ntn at all, so i would rather him die and we learn something, then nothing happen tonight.

Dola, spleen..remember the day 3 of the football game? izulde reminds me of swaggs right now, in a different situation sure, but similar actions

FWIW, the other game i played with izulde when he was on the block and later revealed to be a wolf he was much more vehament in his own defense. but he could still be guilty and just be playing it a different way.

ntndeacon seems almost like it's more of just "clearing out the non-participant" type vote....everyone else has participated to varying degrees that are more than he has though.

well I just don't have a strong feeling of suspicion towards anyone right now. Of Izulde and NTN, NTN hasn't been participating as much, so we know the least about him.

vote ntndeacon

The people on NTN read almost straight off my suspicious list, with the exception of sublime who hasnt voted and Izulde, who we all know will swap to save his own life.

That is current to this post, fyi

I'm not quite sure what relevance this has to anything, but rum does sound good right about now. Do you think you could get me some? We are working to banish the Dark after all, and a dry throat does ill to that end.

So when NTN comes up good, i want all of you to finally stop taking the easy road and blindly following Alan.

i don't think are many that are above suspiscion at this point FWIW. Certainly not all of those on izulde are.

i reject the wholehearted condemnation of everyone on ntn on behalf of the side of light blade, and i don't know what it hopes to accomplish beyond chumming the waters

I should say, Thomkal is my new #1 after today...he will be my vote tomorrow if i make it, and i really hope at least some of you follow me. Im pretty darn sure NTN will come up good with whos voted for him, and i hope you all remember this post when he does

you'd rather we follow you?

I severely hope that tomorrow the truly good villagers, whoever they are, start to seriously reconsider who their following in these votes. If today ends like i expect, it will be 3 days in a row that people like alan have led you astray. We can no longer afford such blemishes

grrrr...after reading who i have voted with, i understand your point blade. I am not in the sunniest of company