No, they actually released the numbers earlier this week. The number that actually registered and voted was less than 1,000 statewide. I'll try to track down the stats and link them if I can.

While I understand that North Carolina is currently a toss up state according to some polling data, I'd be pretty shocked if it actually did land in the Democrat column on election day. The demographics in that state are decidedly against Obama.

Brokaw has said that he didn't agree to that. And he kind of holds the cards there. If he does ask a followup, then the candidate will have to answer it. A candidate would lose major points for saying "you are not allowed follow-up questions."

I do, however, agree that this will be a sterile debate overall. They are legislating where the candidates can walk on the stage for goodness sake.

I'd be surprised too, but better safe than sorry, right? Seems a bit naive and presumptive in any case. I wouldn't change my registration place if I were for Obama either. All states give you the chance to cast an absentee ballot... just get one of those and vote in your home state.

I thought the AP story I read was 4-5,000. But I didn't feel like linking to it, because that involves work.

Living here, I agree with you. While I live in the Triangle, it is but a dot of blue in an ocean of red. NASCAR was started here for goodness sake.

However, I think that the events of the last week might actually make things close. Charlotte is the second largest banking center in the country (behind NYC). And Wachovia was kind of the flagship bank of the state. Banking is the business in Charlotte--it's where Wall Street actually meets Main Street. If McCain cannot shake the image that he is more responsible for the banking crisis than Obama is, it could sink him here. Of course, if McCain cannot turn the banking crisis meme around, he's lost anyway, so it might not be that NC is sure to go red so much as NC is not the state that will tip the balance for Obama.

I don't get your first two conclusions.

Sure, I'd love to see more actual voting machines in use (which would drastically reduce my wait), but I'd love to hear how it would kill turn out and why you'd never vote again.

I would definitely make a four-day weekend out of it and be out of town.

Solution: Polling booths at the airport.

That wouldn't work in Vegas. Senior citizens would end up sitting in front of a slot machine pulling the slot arm thinking they were at a voting machine.

Yeah, but it also depends on where the candidates spend their resources. Obama is making a major push in NC. Right now, the electoral map does not look good for McCain. He's going to have to push hard in Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia and may not have the luxury of defending North Carolina as vigorously as he wants. I could see a scenario where McCain fights so hard in Virginia that he takes it, but ends up losing NC at the same time.

Looks like PA may be out of McCain's reach now. New SurveyUSA Poll puts the gap at 15 points.

SurveyUSA Election Poll #14507

Obama 55-40 McCain

Mason-Dixon poll in Florida keeps the Obama lead within the margin of error at 2 points: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/se...ason-Dixon.pdf

And Minnesota has gone from an average of 4 points ahead (pre bailout signing/pre VP Debate) to 10.5 points ahead in the RCP Average... A new poll from the Minnesota Public Radio/University of MN - Humphrey Institute puts the gap at 14 points (54-40)

http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/cspg/..._President.pdf

That narrows McCain's path to victory (he absolutely has to have Florida, no matter what, but that's within the margin of error)

It's 3rd and 31 deep in their own end, McCain can't win the election tonight, he CAN lose it by throwing a pick (he's one gaffe away from being pretty much out of it), but he can set up a more makeable fourth down (the final debate) if he makes the play here. (Enough football references?)

I thinkt he most apt football metaphor is that McCain is losing the field position battle. The battleground right now is being fought on McCain's side of the field (red states). McCain is either losing or close in FL, OH, NC, VA, CO, IN, MO, and NV. He can't afford to lose any of these states.

That's a big deal--the number of states that McCain has to defend. Let's give Obama Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico. Then let's say that McCain is a 90% favorite in all of the states that you mention (probably a bit generous b/c Obama is leading in most of them). McCain still has a < 50% chance of winning all of those states (90%^8).

McCain needs to shrink the map.

I didn't say major. I said small to medium (which are already dropping/reducing health plans. This will just increase it).

dola:

I also wonder about the McCain campaign's lack of message discipline. Go negative, fine. Pull out of Michigan, fine. But telling people that you are going negative in order to change the subject? And announcing that you are pulling out of Michigan?

Why do those things? It just makes your moves seem more calculated.

McCain can still win this, but I feel like we are watching a team down in the 4th quarter and you look at the bench and all of the players are just sitting there and not looking at each other and the coach has gone into Art Shell mode. It does not feel like you are watching the QB go up and down the bench talking to the O-Line to keep them pumped up.

Basically, I wonder if there is more turmoil behind the scenes than we are seeing (as turned out to be the case in Clinton's campaign).

I have had the exact opposite experience. I have a feeling the reason was I can't afford the level of insurance that you most likely can. I found it near impossible to even find a company that will insure me (boarder-line diabetic), and the ones who would wanted about $1000 a month. Before the diabetes and when I was younger, I had private insurance with a very highly thought of company. My wife got pregnant with my first child, they tried to drop us. My agent fought to keep us covered, and then they tried to deny claims. In the end, they paid way less than they should, we paid way more, and the hospital just wrote off a good bit of it.

Bingo cards for tonight!

Barack Obama Bingo [Random!]

John McCain Bingo [Random!]

No one watching the debate?

sweet bingo!!

Still time to get a beer :)

You'd think they would get better chairs.

McCain looked pretty stiff when he walked out. Not that it matters. Party has started. Even though this format is cardboard, it's still more interesting than watching some moderator asking questions.

Obama wants to do everything short of bringing back the WPA.

Government bailout of home mortgage debt. Big gub'ment GOP ftl.

Seems tonight, Obama wants to contrast the differences unlike the last debate where he kept saying "I agree with Senator McCain" over and over again. But it seems to me like he's almost too defensive and acting like he's on the stump.

McCain looks nervous, but is coming off far more natural so far.

I do like that McCain is being more specific then Obama

Look at the smile on Obam'as face as McCain speaks.

Come again?

Yup.. McCain goes sharply negative on the Freddie/Fannie.. blaming Obama's "Cronies".. not sure that'll work.. Obama's been in the Senate.. two years? How many years have McCain been in there?

Fixed it, sorry.

No prob...just busting your stones. :p

That's ok. :) You probably won't get me for the full debate this time, I get to go home soon :)

McCain's new mortgage buying plan sounds like Hillary's gas tax holiday.

wow - that theresa finch lady could barely read her own question. and it wasn't even difficult

McCain can't do the "I feel your pain" thing. Throwing jabs that don't address the question are not a knock out blow, either.

Ah... McCain says you can trust him because he trashes his own party often, and Obama can't be trusted because he never repudiates his own party... wait.. what???

McCain's getting micro-economics again

Wow. If this is McCain strength....

Man, McCain looks really old sometimes..he always looks old though.

Is there some reason that the cameras keep showing Obama from behind?

Obama started slow and awkward, but seems to be warming up a bit.

He's walking into the future :)

Ooooo.. Obama struck a good shot there, by suggesting we get rid of the $4 billion in tax breaks for the Oil Companies.

Q: What sacrifices will you ask of the American people?
McCain: I will cut earmarks and rein in goivernment spending.

Nice :)

McCain doesn't look strong so far. I'm guessing FOX News will prove me wrong. But...I just think he's just rehashing talking points, spending too much time on details that won't resonate with people.

With the occasional jab at Barry. Maybe it'll be like the last debate when he gets stronger halfway through.


"We're not rifle shots here. We're Americans!"

LOL :)

And Obama goes with energy independence, while reminding Americans of George Bush's admonition that everyone go shopping following 9/11. Point: Obama.

He's one pen short of a Bob Dole impression.

I have a feeling that if that happens...we'll be the ones paying the price at the pump.

McCain goes with the "jello to the wall" jab. That was effective maybe the first twenty times I ever heard it used.