Been monitoring 538 election polling. Both Senate & House has dropped significantly for the Dems.

For the Senate, the Dems had a comfortable win % IIRC somewhere in the mid-60s and now down to 50-50. The House has always been a mess for the Dems but much more so now.

My guess is, regardless of all the social consternation and IMO successful foreign policy, it still comes down to the economy under Biden's watch. Still hoping for a mixed Congress but won't be surprised in a GOP blowout.

It'll be interesting reading the post-vote surveys on what happened.

I don't think it will be too interesting to read about what happened - we know why, if that's what happens. More important to me is the future. Mainly, how quickly we devolve/dissolve. The GOP has already been vocal about what they want to do. When they get a tangible sign and the power to go forward with that agenda, I'm not sure I'm prepared for what that looks like. And it's mostly the cultural/performative/vindictive BS. That's barely even thinking about the policy implications (some of which I would probably agree with, moderately).

I don't know what to believe with polls. I see Trafalfar has NY governor tied. American Greatness has MI governor tied. Are these reliable pollsters or just conservative groups trying to drive a narrative? They seem to be flooding the rcp and 538 averages.

I imagine these polls are trying to do two things:

1. Deflate Democrats, try to dissuade them from voting from a perceived inevitability/lost cause

2. Set the stage for stolen election claims. Blue candidate won when all signs were pointing to red? FRAUD!!

Also, this seemed a pretty good summary:

Pretty much every poll right now looks like this:

If the election for were held today would you vote to...

Keep things the same 45%
Randomly smash everything 46%
Undecided 6%

(MOE 3%, 1024 LVs, 10/16-27/22)

— Ian Millhiser (@imillhiser) November 1, 2022

I think it is #2 all the way' Kari Lake basically said she would only accept the results of the election if she won. Kelly has a somewhat decent lead over Masters, and how many people will split the ticket?

I may have mentioned it earlier here, I really think these polls aren't capturing young voters, especially females. If they truly are motivated by Dobbs to come out and vote Dems could have a great day.

I don't know if those two are conservative pollster, but I know some of the election watchers have noticed that polls from conservative sources have been covered more in the national media, trying to build a red wave. But they themselves are not seeing such a wave. They see youth voting in large numbers and more Democratic early voting than in 2020 in most battleground states.

I sent in my Mother's and my absentee ballot in today. Not sure if it works the same way in other states, but in SC we can vote a straight party ticket, and don't have to vote in every race. It felt nice not having to vote for a single Republican :)

Interesting article and polling on public opinion on race based affirmative action in Higher Ed admissions.

There's a graphic about 1/3 down which discusses how poll/survey "wording greatly matters". There are 3 wordings.

The Supreme Court Could Overturn Another Major Precedent. This Time, Americans Might Agree. | FiveThirtyEight

Bottom-line to me. There was definitely a place and time for considering race. Racial diversity has increased and there may still be a need now, but it is less. How much less is the question that I struggle with.

As the SCOTUS line of questioning brought up, I don't think it's unreasonable to set some clear cut diversity targets for Universities. And from the lack of response to SCOTUS, I don't think there are any clear cut targets beyond "diversity is good and we need more" (correct me if I'm wrong). And if there are no targets, success (or lack of) can't be measured.

I don't know what the targets should be but there needs to be something, a range etc. Maybe not per institution but state wide. Maybe different tiers based on if you are a top institution or other. Maybe private institutions have more flexibility (but I'm guessing vast majority probably get government funding). Wonder how racially diverse European Universities are and can we learn from them.

There have been several polls recently in Georgia that have Walker either over Warnock or tied. But they have all come from Right-wing sources. I do think that there is a concerted effort to make any Democrat win look suspect.

Same here in Kentucky. I voted yesterday after signing an affidavit that said that I am unable to vote on election day, or any of the early voting days, because I work in a job where I will not be available to.

Straight party, but like 75% of the races are one party uncontested.

What I fear for this state is despite our governors status as a Dem, and his very high approval rate, that next year, when the governor's election comes around again, we're going to end up with another trumpist, better than bevin, option, and he will take the modestly reasonable status that the state has taken in the past 4-5 years and totally flush it down the toilet in an effort to be the next {insert wild, attention seeking, loud mouthed southern governor here}.

Yep. Beshear guided this state through a pandemic and 2 regional disasters 99% devoid of any political BS (and really only brought up politics when challenged by partisans, he never instigated it), acted like a real leader, conveyed over and over again that he was for every Kentuckian, and he's probably going to lose because he won't be running against Bevin and because people are still butthurt he didn't leave the state completely open during Covid.

I sure hope this buddy-buddy is for public consumption. And behind the scene's Biden is getting SA concessions.

On second thoughts, nah. It'll hurt the US some if Iran attacks SA but just as long as Iran doesn't conquer SA, we should be okay (until we no longer need the 5% of heavy crude imports). Let them fight it out.

US and Saudi Arabia concerned that Iran may be planning attack on energy infrastructure in Middle East | CNN Politics

I guess it was a factually correct statement but obviously not one to boast about.

White House deletes tweet after Twitter adds 'context' note - POLITICO
Good recovery though. But wouldn't be surprised if some last min mid-term ads gets some mileage out of this.


Unlike Trump, I doubt Biden signs off on all these tweets (or creates them) himself. I wonder who the person is that signs off on these.

You don't think Diamond Joe is sitting on the crapper, Tweeting out from the White House account?

SI

Seems like a whole lot of "not our problem".

If they aren't in your sphere of influence, they WILL be in your ideological opposites. As shitty as they are, better to be within our influence, than outside it. There's lots and lots of grey in there to deal with.

Destruction of any oil producing capabilities in the Middle East is definitely a "our problem." Global market prices affect us at the pump and everywhere else. F- the Saudis in general, but allowing Iran to harm global markets is not a good idea. Russia is already doing enough of that.

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What influence? They are gouging us on oil so they can influence elections. At some point we have to realize that it's a one-sided relationship.

I would have pulled out all our troops when they cut production.

Also the Saudis have been far more destructive to the United States than Iran has.

You think the price you're paying right now is gouging? Really? What happens when the US is totally cut off from any and all ME oil supply? You think the Chinese don't have an interest in that?

We'll just go back to being energy independent like we were under Trump.

Oh, I got into a FB discussion on THAT yesterday. Yeesh.

Remove the oil sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. Few more sellers in the market should help.

They need us more than we need them. Time to start acting like it.

Forget Iran. Agree with Venezuela.

We've missed the ship to enact change there, so let's do the best we can and get the 5% of SA heavy crude there. It's in (or closer to) our sphere of influence anyway.

How'd that go?

About as expected. A lot of "for a smart guy you're pretty stupid" kind of lines thrown in. I responded to what was basically a 1st Amendment/oil/immigration grab bag (accompanied by Trump, as Bob Ross, painting a red wave), got back a focus on oil. Supply/demand, look at profit margins not dollar amounts. Then when I did (and provided a link on how % profit for the last two quarters were the two highest by far of any since 2010), don't I know that oil isn't Exxon's only product? (Oil and oil accessories, I guess.) Then that the US had always been energy independent and a huge supplier. I countered with links to graphs that showed that we may be the largest supplier now, but even so that's only 20%...and, huh, we were actually out-produced by the Saudis all during GW's tenure...

More on getting back to being independent and actually exporting; I found a graph that, well, hrm -- we're currently exporting as much as we ever have. Oh, well FRACKING, and yada yada green stuff bad; I left it with "well, ok, go ahead and frack and drill -- but be prepared for your dreaded immigration when areas become increasingly uninhabitable!", let him know that despite the bits of condescension I felt quite secure regarding my level of intelligence, and everyone went back to watching baseball.

I mean, he had arguments ready, at least for oil. Which makes you pause when you haven't done any in-depth study. But the arguments didn't necessarily seem to jibe with what I was finding number-wise.

I suspect a number of these (semi-non-sequitur) arguments are provided for you if you watch a bevy of right wing TV.

SI

Well, just saw that he did apologize and says that he has data to show me and that he's just passionate about it because he's in the industry. Which I can understand -- but I still don't know that being in the industry lends itself to objectivity.

(Still no word on how any of this shows that Biden is leading us on the road to socialism though.)

If I had a penny for every ad I've heard that mentions "defund the police" I'd be rich. It's the gift that keeps on giving for the GOP, even if it means nothing today and as a practical matter, the voices in the Dem party who still think like that have no ability to make it happen.

I am pretty sure I know the answer to this but where there any stories about kids getting sick from eating fentanyl laced candy this week?

People on my subdivision's website are defending themselves against accusations of being "Halloween grinches" by essentially saying they did not believe the candy in the local stores were fetntanyl free.

Given what is actually in candy (and most processed foods, for that matter), jokes on them.

David DePape: Immigration officials say Paul Pelosi attacker was in US illegally | CNN Politics

Looks like the right have found their attack angle on this issue.

It doesn't even make sense. Drug dealers are in the business of making money. They aren't setting up in rented homes to give out free drugs. Also, users want to keep their stash. They are not going to give it up out of the kindness of their hearts, to make a new class of addicts. I believe most of them are like my cousin who, back in the 80s when I visited relatives in California, asked if I wanted any pot and when I said no, he said... "Good!"

Working from home, just saw an ad by "Citizens for Sanity" talking about how Biden = WW3. Pretty hilarious that these work.

I always find that the more sanitized sounding the group name, the crazier they are. "Citizens for Sanity", "Taxpayers for Freedom", "Parents Choice Coalition", "Family Values Group" - I have no idea if these are things. But I bet someone out there spun the word wheel and landed on something like this to cover up the crazy they are about.

SI

Just another sign of the Orwellian nightmare we are heading into. I look forward to seeing some lunatic as the first ever Minister for Peace in 2025 or so.

They don't have an issue with illegal immigration if the person is white.

They'll still use the angle when it helps them, even with a white guy. Or, even better, just mentioning it without any context and hoping their supporters pick up on it even if they erroneously assume something about where the guy is from.

build the wall and make canadia pay for it

I'm confused, is the argument that you should vote Republican because schools were shut down 2 years ago under a Republican president? And that having to be an involved parent for 2 years is too much?

I take pride in not holding grudges..but you're damn right it hits different when it comes to my kids. Being a mom is the only thing that truly matters to me & I am DONE. Have been for 2 years. Too many lines have been crossed & not enough ppl have stood up for our kids. Enough. https://t.co/BoPkIK2I9f

— Sage Steele (@sagesteele) November 3, 2022

This false premise that if we had done things differently kids wouldn't have been harmed in any way (whether from the virus itself or the effects of sheltering in place for however long) is so weird. We lived through a pandemic. It was always going to have adverse consequences. Yes, test scores are down and learning has been affected; we also likely traded some of that for less death early on and/or unknown long term affects. We were never going to find a mythical path to navigating it with no lasting problems.

Let's be honest, if we had kept kids in school, the same group would have been decrying the Democrats that put the kids in harm's way.

People (and especially parents) are angry and worn out after 3 year (amplified by a diet of social media - see the tweets above) and are going to lash out at whomever's convenient and whomever's telling them what they don't want to hear (i.e. the truth).

The next time I take Colin Cowherd's opinion seriously will be the first. That dude sucks turds in a ditch

Further, if it's as simple as "the economy, stupid" then I still don't see how you vote Republican. Look at the Stock Market thread. Everyone knew Trump was goosing the economy as much as humanly possible. We all knew there was a good chance it would explode a year or two after Biden got in office. But like COVID, the people who are there now gets blamed instead of the people who actually fumbled things to begin with.

I think, sadly, that 99% of the people that aren't 100% D or R really don't care about social issues (abortion, immigration, LGBTQ, etc) as real issues because it will literally never affect them. They'll say they support it, but if you got them drunk they'd tell you an extra 50 cents for a Kind bar mattered more than a random gay person in Alabama being able to marry.

I disagree with this. It is true that Biden doesn't get all the blame, but 2 years in, he gets the majority of the blame for the economy (let's say 80-20). He made his choices (including renominating Powell, including believing in transitory inflation etc.).

For Covid, there was a stat that like-for-like (e.g. approx. # of months), Biden had more deaths even after a vaccine was available.

Overall, Biden is certainly better than Trump. But I'm not going to absolve him for this economy (either through his actions or inactions).

The Biden Presidency - 2020
 

Edited to avoid confrontation

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As I am often misquoted, please provide the link of what you think I said?

Darn, too late. I would still like to see the quote you attributed to me so I can review and make sure what you purport applies here is really in proper context. Link it.

The Biden Presidency - 2020
 

Please just remove your reply and quote so I don’t have to start a months long back and forth of obfuscation and become victim of energy vampiring.


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