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CrimsonFox 10-18-2011 10:21 PM

(don't think we'd wanna)

Commo_Soldier 10-18-2011 10:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn (Post 2552007)
I am out for the night. Don't do anything I wouldn't do.


So we can lie away then ;) JK, have a good night of fearless GM, or whatever you're called.

J23 10-18-2011 10:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2551669)
Total posts:

SnD : 3
J23 : 3
Daddy : 2
Tyrith : 1


I was busy at work today and didn't feel like discussing the merits of Coldplay, and then went out for the evening. The fact that post count is used for any kind of vote analysis is pretty laughable with how many useless posts a number of people throw out there. While I agree that talking in the thread obviously helps people get a "read" on you, I don't think Abe's playlist has given us any deep insight into his motivations this game.

CrimsonFox 10-18-2011 10:57 PM

may and j23, are you SURE you aren't still evil? LIke have some leftover evil in you?

CrimsonFox 10-18-2011 10:57 PM

arg...MAU I mean.

The Jackal 10-18-2011 11:14 PM

J I was just trying to suggest who might not have been checking in. There was obviously a lot of BS talk today which I alluded to shortly after including myself. UTR would be a smart strategy for at least a couple bad guys this game though. We've done some UTR lynching lately but I think most of the voting is trending towards the talkative. Plus the more you make bad guys talk (not insinuating anyone on that list was bad) the more chances they have to slip up.

Sucks about hoops, we never got to see him in red tights

CrimsonFox 10-18-2011 11:15 PM

Well there's always you, Jackal.

The Jackal 10-18-2011 11:16 PM

But in general more posting is better. Very hard to read UTR people that slip by, even harder with less useful pointed vote histories.

But I'm sure people will start chiming in with non-coldplay related news tmw. At least we know there should only be one NK max next phase and there have been some seer scans.

The Jackal 10-18-2011 11:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 2552040)
Well there's always you, Jackal.


My vote looks pretty bad, I can't begrudge some "hairy eyeballs" as autumn would say

The Jackal 10-18-2011 11:17 PM

Bedtime here

ntndeacon 10-18-2011 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 2552002)
so ntndeacon, congratulations! You've just made it to day 2! What are you gonna do now????

Lay it on us, bud. Let's hear lots of analysis, comments, and observations! :)


I am going to Metropolis !!! That is like Disney right?

CrimsonFox 10-18-2011 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2552042)
My vote looks pretty bad, I can't begrudge some "hairy eyeballs" as autumn would say



I meant you could wear the red tights.

J23 10-18-2011 11:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal (Post 2552039)
J I was just trying to suggest who might not have been checking in. There was obviously a lot of BS talk today which I alluded to shortly after including myself. UTR would be a smart strategy for at least a couple bad guys this game though. We've done some UTR lynching lately but I think most of the voting is trending towards the talkative. Plus the more you make bad guys talk (not insinuating anyone on that list was bad) the more chances they have to slip up.

Sucks about hoops, we never got to see him in red tights


I'd agree that conversation actually about the game is helpful. More than half of what was posted today just makes it harder to go back and find the information about the game if the need arises. Perhaps it's just that I don't know the Coldplay-2face connection that everyone else seems to know.

CrimsonFox 10-18-2011 11:34 PM

Okay fair enough j23. No more coldplay. What jumps out at you? anything? Where are your thoughts?

Commo_Soldier 10-18-2011 11:54 PM

Well after looking at things I just don't get a good vibe from CF. Maybe it is the all caps two face post, or the Hoops starting the run on him and hoops subsequent lynch, or his asking for me to vote for him and his voting for himself. Just strange behavior.

Vote CrimsonFox

Commo_Soldier 10-18-2011 11:56 PM

Dola, I guess there was no flare for you Crimson, completely forgot about your request until right after I posted.

Commo_Soldier 10-19-2011 12:02 AM

Tripe Dola, if there is some compelling reason to move I will move, but I feel fairly comfortable with this vote right now. Also looking into things more the Bug and Saldana votes don't look so bad right now unless we find out Zinto two face, which is possible, but not sure if I feel as confident that is the case. I will be on my phone all day tomorrow and have my NBDA meeting in the evening so I will post the voting tallies when I get home, probably just after the night kill. I will change vote and respond if I see something that I feel is intriguing.

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 12:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier (Post 2552064)
Dola, I guess there was no flare for you Crimson, completely forgot about your request until right after I posted.


sad. I need 37 pieces of flare to be satisfied.

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 12:18 AM

hmmm I really hope the seer didn't waste a scan on hoops. Perhaps we should not be giving Twoface any more of these bright ideas.

Narcizo 10-19-2011 01:34 AM

Well that was a pretty sucky bunch of results then. I guess we should be happy there was no conversion. I guess Two-Face picked up on Danny's comment about Hoops being off (which was probably true) and took it to mean he might be a deranged citizen. Makes me think that there probably weren't any overt signals sent to Two-Face.

Narcizo 10-19-2011 01:35 AM

So Crimson - care to take us through what exactly you're hoping for with the capital letters business? I'm struggling to see any rhythm or reason to it myself.

Narcizo 10-19-2011 01:38 AM

I honestly doubt much can be read into voting record. Unless Two-Face was on the block at some stage there's not much you can say about it. Except the deranged will be voting for people who don't seem to be deranged, obviously (so you won't see them voting Crimson bada-boom-tishhhh).

Narcizo 10-19-2011 03:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2551931)
If I were a Distubred Citizen, I would consider making a mid day vote on Two face and then unvoting a short time later, as a hint.

We might want to look at votes and unvotes after the first few votes in the morning and before maybe 30 minutes left to deadline.


I've been thinking and rethinking about you making this point and I've concluded that it probably means you're a villager.

If you're Two-Face then you could be signalling your followers to do what you describe but it's pretty clear that any vote/unvote on you is going to be ultra-suspicious.

I think you can make a case for you being Deranged and wanting to warn other Deranged people off of doing this.

Likliest is that you're a villager.

Narcizo 10-19-2011 03:32 AM

I wondering if the baddies vote Hoops or not. It seems likely that some people might think that Hoops was acting strange and connect that with him being a baddy so they'd want to steer clear of him. Then again if he's a villager then it's a golden opportunity to take out a good villager. If I were a baddy (and I'd thought things through properly) I think I wouldn't vote him and hope that 2-Face kills/converts him. But I'm not sure I'd think of that at the time. Normally I'd be suspicious of Hoops day one voters but I'm not sure that holds up in these circumstances.

saldana 10-19-2011 04:54 AM

i didnt see anything strange about hoops from yesterday. i think it is much more likely that two face simply eliminated a dangerous villager

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 06:03 AM

Right now I see Lathum as a good bet for Two face

Corrupt people: mckerney, mauboy, and dzilla, possibly Danny

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 06:12 AM

1st subset - people who always vote hoops first: Lathum, Saldana, , possibly sndvls (although I don't know him that well), Danny (although he varies, Chief Rum

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 06:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708 (Post 2551900)
:(


Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2551901)
Damn it


Quote:

Originally Posted by dzilla77 (Post 2551902)
Well that sucks.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrith (Post 2551903)
Yeah, epic fail Tyrith.



Second subset - people that were verbally upset by the lynch results and bothered to type it in.

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 06:16 AM

oh yeah add Tyrith to the 1st subset

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2551890)
this should say:

hiding in plain sight to get two face to night kill/convert you is a ballsy move, but not an out of the question one.


like this post a lot and feel better about her being a villager because of it. Only one with a really valid reason spelled out for voting for me. Then again a longtime player could easily pull an autumn-like good excuse as a wolf to do anything. Still, giving her a pass another day.

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 06:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 2552103)
oh yeah add Tyrith to the 1st subset



in fact unsure of my lathum as twoface theory. Could be Lathum or Tyrith. Although I really like Tyrith's posts today. Really helpful. Then again he was one of the only ones. Maybe TOO helpful ;)

Danny 10-19-2011 06:32 AM

Hoops is an interesting kill. I have to imagine two face was going for someone they thought might be a corrupted citizen. This likely means that A. No one made it obvious they were a corrupted citizen an 2. I'd guess that two face wasn't even involved in the vote at all (meaning Zinto and Crimson are not two face.

Danny 10-19-2011 06:33 AM

Saldana is a villager I am pretty sure.

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 06:35 AM

Third subest - weird / driveby voters. I didn't include any of Danny's thousands of votes because who knows what they could mean. Something seemed weird about him today. I mean weirder than the normal weird.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dzilla77 (Post 2551244)
Won't be around much til later but I will throw out a random vote

Vote Zinto


he came back tho after the vote was it?

Quote:

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic (Post 2551275)
Just getting a vote out there early, I should be around most of the day

VOTE MAUBOY1


he DID post again a little later then disappeared.


Quote:

Originally Posted by J23 (Post 2551432)
Vote Narcizo

For having a hand in that ridiculous day of reveals and village-death last game.


1 of his, what was it 4 posts?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2551525)
Kill me now if that is the case. And Sal and I live 3,000 miles away, so a picture may be difficult

also,

Vote Zinto
Coldpaly sucks


Also very little posting and a good generic reason.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mauboy1 (Post 2551715)
vote hoopsguy


superdriverby vote. Was a little active earlier but really short in his replies and then no reply after this, nor reasoning for suddening following me and Zinto.


Quote:

Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 2551738)
:jawdrop:

Unvote DaddyTorgo
Vote CrimsonFox


A signal ? countersignal? What was this? Surely you would think there would be more accusations following this vote. Some response. Some "Aha, I see." but nothing...


Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2551793)
Not going to have a strong player like hoops out on Day One if I can help it.

And apologies to CF and Zinto--but they'll probably acknowledge hoops is a WW God of playing, and won't mind (too much) that I choose to try to save him over them.

VOTE ZINTO


This is normal Chief shpiel. Usually it's Chief voting for a villager shpiel. I still don't think I've ever seen Chief as a wolf before (or for that matter vote for one ;) )


Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo (Post 2551800)
VOTE ZINTO


Zzzzzzzzzzzooooom

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2551843)
ok, ties dont help

unvote narcizo
vote abe


They don't do they...

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana (Post 2551861)
i would much rather go crimson than abe, to be honest


Unless you trying to create one...which he helps do.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708 (Post 2551844)
Vote - Abe


Hmmm...


Quote:

Originally Posted by MrBug708 (Post 2551880)
[b]unvote Abe

Vote CF



HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM..... conveniently at 7:01.

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 06:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2552108)
Saldana is a villager I am pretty sure.


I do indeed get that vibe.

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 06:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2551970)
Danny unvotes Hoops (1) 319
CrimsonFox unvotes ChiefRum (0) 359
Jackal unvotes CrimsonFox (1) 389
McKerney unvotes DaddyTorgo (0) 403
MrBug unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 423
Tyrith unvotes AbeSargent (2) 429
Tyrith unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 430

Here our unvotes above, up to 6:30 p.m. (admittedly, an arbitrary cutoff time).

Our potential Disturbed Citizen-Two Face pairs are:

Danny-Hoops
CF-Chief
Jackal-CF
Mckerney-DT
Bug-CF
Tyrith-CF

I removed the ntn-Autumn pair, of course, and the Tyrith-Abe pair, since Abe is not Two Face. I am pretty comfortable saying I am not Two Face, so you can take out the CF-Chief pairing too.

I find it pretty interesting that CF was voted and unvoted three times during this period, by three different players (Jackal, Bug, Tyrith).


Like this methodology a lot and this post.
I don't totally agree with its usefullness as yes chief you thought of it, but that doesn't mean anyone else did. And if you are removing yourself, then you can also remove me and look at the people that unvoted me.

We'll call them subset 4 - Bug, Tyrith, Jackal.

Now let's see, what two names here have come up in multiple subsets?

dzilla77 10-19-2011 06:54 AM

I actually came back before the vote and posted several times. I did not see any reason to move my vote, without any strong feelings for anyone at the time.

Will be looking in throughout the day and may get a post or two in around lunch, but my activity will be sparse until evening.

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 07:01 AM

Yeah I really couldn't remember. Just remembered little short votes here and there with little explanation. Then again it's day 1

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 07:05 AM


hoopsguy 10-19-2011 07:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 2552119)


Please stop causing problems :)

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 07:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2552127)
Please stop causing problems :)


What? What am I doing? :) All i'm doing is listening to the BEST MUSIC EVER and saying how the wolves are are yellow for not coming out and fighting in the open that's all. :)

hoopsguy 10-19-2011 07:53 AM

It is an old-school FOFC phrase, dating back to jbmagic ... before your time, based on the 12/2009 join date. My bad, was the equivalent of making a reference to Slapshot around my nephew who is in high school. Have to know your audience when making wisecracks :)

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 07:56 AM

I know it was a wisecrack and was wisecracking back. :)

ntndeacon 10-19-2011 08:04 AM

Already more evaluation than normal on day 2. normslly my day 2 vote is another cipher, but looking at the bits of evaluation... (esp. Chief's) it looks like Cf's name should be high in the thought processes of today. Thus...
Vote CrimsonFox

Danny 10-19-2011 08:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2551970)
Danny unvotes Hoops (1) 319
CrimsonFox unvotes ChiefRum (0) 359
Jackal unvotes CrimsonFox (1) 389
McKerney unvotes DaddyTorgo (0) 403
MrBug unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 423
Tyrith unvotes AbeSargent (2) 429
Tyrith unvotes CrimsonFox (2) 430

Here our unvotes above, up to 6:30 p.m. (admittedly, an arbitrary cutoff time).

Our potential Disturbed Citizen-Two Face pairs are:

Danny-Hoops
CF-Chief
Jackal-CF
Mckerney-DT
Bug-CF
Tyrith-CF

I removed the ntn-Autumn pair, of course, and the Tyrith-Abe pair, since Abe is not Two Face. I am pretty comfortable saying I am not Two Face, so you can take out the CF-Chief pairing too.

I find it pretty interesting that CF was voted and unvoted three times during this period, by three different players (Jackal, Bug, Tyrith).


CrimsonFox is in an awful lot of those combinations. He certainly is not a bad vote today.

CrimsonFox 10-19-2011 08:34 AM

I can't hear you over the Coldplay.

The Jackal 10-19-2011 08:45 AM

Really I should have left my crazy vote/unvote for D1 of this game, might've told us more. That's why I voted CF in the first place, just wanted to see what happened, but when nobody did anything I moved to Abe who had been vibing a bit off. But that was a poor read on my part.

The Jackal 10-19-2011 08:47 AM

I agree finding out about CF might clear a little up, but want to look over the unvoting also.

Narcizo 10-19-2011 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 2552106)
in fact unsure of my lathum as twoface theory. Could be Lathum or Tyrith. Although I really like Tyrith's posts today. Really helpful. Then again he was one of the only ones. Maybe TOO helpful ;)


So you've narrowed the possible Two-Faces down to two candidates. Good work! Lets lynch one today and the other tomorrow and then the game will be over.

Narcizo 10-19-2011 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2552107)
Hoops is an interesting kill. I have to imagine two face was going for someone they thought might be a corrupted citizen. This likely means that A. No one made it obvious they were a corrupted citizen an 2. I'd guess that two face wasn't even involved in the vote at all (meaning Zinto and Crimson are not two face.


Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2552146)
CrimsonFox is in an awful lot of those combinations. He certainly is not a bad vote today.


But Crimson keeps cropping up on the Two-Face side of Chief's unvote patterns, so you're kind of contradicting yourself there.

I'm willing to bet that the whole unvote thing is a blind alley. I'm also doubtful about how hard we should be chasing Two-Face rather than potential convertees. Seems like we have a much better chance of getting a deranged citizen and when we do we can try to follow a trail back to Two-Face. Trying to shoot straight for Two-Face is less likely to work but more likely to give Two-Face an idea of who the converted people are.


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