Isn't it 5 years before you can become an unrestricted free agent?

You have a qualifying offer going into your 5th season. Most Teams give a long term extension to players instead of having them take the qualifying as they will be a FA the next season.

Outside of maybe Lebron, I can't think of anyone who made $10+ million before the age of 23-24. Maybe Rubio will be good, but it would take a lot from a NBA GM to sign a 22-year old PG to a $10+ million deal long term. Maybe if he was 6-9, 260 and moved like a PG - but at 6-4, 200, I just don't see until until Ricky's done it well for 2-3 years in the NBA. You may draft a 6-4 Euro on potential, but you're not giving him a 5-year deal averaging more than $10 mil per season on potential. Not even Isiah would do that.

Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudamire, Luol Deng, Tony Parker, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Lamar Odom, Zach Randolph, Baron Davis are some. With the league rules on age and the lack of players going as high as Rubio at that age, it's tough to say what he'd be worth at 22.

I went back to 1999 and pulled all the top 5 picks. Of those that would have been eligible to receive extensions before the age you specified above, 8 of the 14 got contracts over $10 million dollars. Most others received contracts that paid them millions a year. The odds are heavily in Rubio's favor here, especially if they believe he is as good as advertised.

I think it's all a big poker hand.

Minnesota wants to trade him as their man is Flynn, Rubio was drafted because it was too good at #5 or #6 to pass on him and let the next team to pick him at #7.

They also know Rubio doesn't want to play there, but they are saying that they will play both pgs and that they will patiently wait for Rubio just to keep an strong hand vs other teams interested on the trade.

Rubio is fighting with DKV to lower his buyout, by saying that he is going to be back to honour that contract is also a way to put the pressure on his old team. They need the cash, in fact they have already deposited the contract buyout clause in the Spanish IRS to cover the huge debts they have. They really need that money and they do not want Ricky back and to get free for nothing in two years. Also the fans could be pissed at him for trying to get out of the team and could be a bad marketing thing if he gets back.

I guess nothing will be clear until closer to the start of the season.

How many of those guys listed were under 6-5 and weighed 200 pounds? You're going to pay Amare, Bosh, Carmelo, Howard and so forth on size. Parker is the closest one and he averaged 16 points and 5 assists in his 2nd season (won the title) to earn that. Davis was also a 18-9 guy when he got his extension.

Big guys get signed for potential. PGs get signed for production. If Rubio can average 17 points and 9 assists at the age of 22, he will get big money. I just don't see him doing that. I could, however, see him doing that at 24. That's why it's no big deal to stay in Spain another year or two.

Theres three downsides to him staying in Spain. #1 is that he either gets hurt or does not continue to develop. No matter where he plays the hype is just crazy on him and if he doesn't live up to it over there he may not get to come in as a starter here even.

The second is at the end of his career. If he doesn't get his first big contract until he's 24 - say a 5 year deal - that puts him at 29 to get his next contract - another 5 year deal puts him at 34. If the first big contract is a 6 year one he's 30 going into his next contract and once any player hits their mid 30s I don't think many teams are going to be waiting with long term offers.

If his contracts start at 22 - 5 year deals put him at 27 and 32. At 32 he probably could get one more 5 year deal - not likely to happen at 34.

Third is that there's no telling how long Minnesota will be bad. The sooner he starts that contract the sooner he can get away from Minnesota.

FWIW NBA 1st round picks get 2 year guaranteed contracts now. The team has options for a 3rd and 4th season and then as mentioned the player can become a restricted free agent after his 4th - at that time his team can sign him to a long term deal or present a qualifying offer - the qualifying offer (if taken) is one year and then the player is a UFA. If he signs an offer sheet while he's a RFA his team can match it so if he wants out of Minnesota and assuming Minny will never trade him he's got to give them 5 years - so again the later he starts that contract it could hamper him trying to get one last deal at the end of his career.

You keep narrowing your criteria down farther and farther to try and make your point. First it's no young players get huge contracts, now it's no young players who are his exact size and weight get big contracts. Fact is that if he can even remotely hold his own in the NBA by the time he is 22, he'll be able to cash in. Rubio is also not your typical 18 year old as he's been a professional for years and has played alongside NBA players on international teams.

NBA General Managers understand the difference in a 22 year old and a 24 year old. In fact, the 22 year old may have more value as he's younger and hasn't reached his full potential yet. Point Guards have only recently come in vogue in the NBA and we've seen a lot of them cash in already or plan to in the coming years. It's a point guard league as opposed to a big guy league that it was at the beginning of the decade.

I don't think staying in Spain is bad developmentally. But if Rubio thinks he will be a star, he will make more money over the course of his career by playing in the NBA right now. He'll be able to sign 2 big free agent contracts in his lifetime as opposed to maybe only one if he waits two years. This is the reason that all the young stars are signing shorter extensions so that they can hit free agency at a younger age (Lebron, Wade, Bosh).

But if he's unsure how he'll stack up in the NBA, then he can hang out in Spain and save a couple million. I still think he runs the risk of having huge expectations over there and anything short of him being a star will raise a lot of questions. It would decrease his trade value (if he truly doesn't want to play in Minnesota) and hurt his overall stock. Not to mention the fact that he won't be developing at an NBA level.

I personally feel the best situation for Rubio would be a Flynn-free Minnesota. He'd be able to start right away and develop on a team with zero expectations. He would be able to hone his skills against NBA talent on a daily basis. Staying in Spain is the best option for the T-Wolves as they can let him develop for 2 years without having to pay him a dime (or lose time before he's a free agent).

Worst case (baring injury), he goes to Spain for two years and comes over at age 20 in 2011. He gets his 2 guaranteed, 2 option deal and then gets extended (no way they make him play for the qualifying offer) for 5 years with an opt out after 3-4 years at age 24. So, he will probably be able to opt out at age 27 or 28 and get another 5 year deal (a la Amare/Lebron).

So, it comes down to whether his 2nd deal is at age 28 or age 26-27. My guess is that if he "starts the clock" now, he will be pretty raw the first two years. This will probably impact his first extension. Even if he recovers in years 3-4, I don't think he makes as much at age 22 for his second deal than if he was more polished at age 24. Plus, his second deal will have an opt out after 3-4 seasons so age won't matter much at that point (27 or 28 vs. 26 or 27). History has shown PGs have a pretty long career if they are good so I don't think teams will mind giving him a nice contract at age 28.

My big fear with him is that he comes over and struggles for two seasons and ends up getting shoe-horned as a backup PG. There's not a lot of patience for raw European guys. If they bomb out after a few seasons, most get tossed aside. If I were him, I'd want to be 100% sure I can play a quality 20 minutes in the NBA from day 1 to maximize my chance at being a star. I also would much rather play for the Knicks instead of the Wolves - I'd have a much better chance at a big contract with NY exposure.

I wouldn't rather play for the Knicks right now. There will be a ton of pressure on him and that team has zero talent. There are no expectations in Minnesota and at least he has a couple guys who can put the ball in the hoop.

OK, tell me one guy under 6-5 who's gotten a big 2nd deal with no production. If it's that "narrow", you should have no problem coming up with guys averaging 8+, 5+ like Nene did and getting $11+ a season on potential. If Rubio ends his first contract at 8 points, 5 assists and 22 MPG (a la Nene), it's not likely he gets $12 mil a season. It would be unprecedented for a young PG.

If he stays in Spain for another season or two, he will be better equipped to play in the NBA. And, if by doing that, he ends up in a better situation when he does arrive - all the better.

Just an FYI, but if Rubio plays two years in Spain and comes over, he will be younger than Wade was for his first season with Miami. Rubio would do exactly what Wade did in play his first 3 seasons on the initial deal and then sign a long term extension for big money with an opt out clause after 3 years. Wade is now finishing his 6th full season and getting ready for his third contract at age 27. Rubio would be in the exact same spot if he spent two years in Spain.

The best thing for Rubio is to go to Spain for a year or two and force a trade to Mike D'Antoni's Knick team. That's a system where he would flourish and getting a little more polish in the process won't hurt. Plus, if he does anything to back the NY hype, he will get top dollar from them on his first extension. There will be more pressure on NY to justify the price/hype of Rubio than there will be on Rubio to be great. If Rubio is just average, NY will spin him as the next Nash and he will cash in.

He could be the next Nash in Minnesota and he still might not get a big extension from the Wolves. I don't see the economy getting any better up there in the next few years and they will already be looking at big money for their other young players (Love, Jefferson, Flynn and maybe even Gomes).

Devin Harris. He didn't get $11 million (very few do) but he cashed in nicely at around $9 million a season when he was averaging 10 points and 3 assists a game. Udrih and Tinsley are two other young guards who got paid handsomely without doing much.

You are correct that Rubio won't get $12 million a season with those stats. But he won't get that kind of money at 22 or 24. So the 2 years in Spain really don't mean much if he ends up playing shitty in the NBA.

How do you figure? Wouldn't he be better equipped to play in the NBA by actually playing in the NBA for a couple years?

That's fine, but Rubio would still be able to make more money by coming to the NBA now if he has a good career. It's not to match what Wade is making, it's to make as much as Rubio can possibly make. The more years he's in the NBA will mean the more money he will ultimately make.


If he doesn't play well in Spain, his trade value drops through the floor. Spain doesn't shield him from anything. And there is no way the New York media spins him as the next Steve Nash if he's average. New York media destroys young players and gives them huge expectations off the bat. If he can handle that, then great. But I think for a teenager in the NBA, he's better off tucked away in Minnesota where no one will care if they make the playoffs.

And if Minnesota won't pay him the big bucks, he can eventually go to someone who will. That's why it's important for him to get those rookie contract years out of the way so he can enter the open market where a team like New York will give him a max contract.

And what exactly is New York going to give the T-Wolves to get Rubio? They really have nothing that they'd want. I'd be looking at other teams if I were to deal him.

Harris signed a 5-year, $40 million extension at age 24 and made less than $8 mil this season. That's about what Rubio can expect for a "best case" on his second deal if he comes over and plays for the Wolves this season. On the Knicks, he can make a lot more than that and they will be in a position to extend him ASAP.

It's not up to the T-Wolves whether he plays for that qualifying offer 5th year or not - that's up to Rubio. I'm sure the T-Wolves would prefer to offer him a long term deal, assuming he lives up to the hype, but if he doesn't want to be there that 5th year is his out. He declines the extension, declines any RFA offer sheets and takes the qualifying offer in year 5 to become an unrestricted FA and go where he wants.

If he does turn out to be a superstar Minnesota could offer him a maximum qualifying offer after that 4th season too - 6 year deal at the league max with max raises but it can't have any options.

If they give him a contract with an early termination option it has to be a 5 year deal because a contract cannot have an ETO in the first four years of it.

They could do a contract with a player option but if you had a bunch of drama getting him here in the first place how willing are you to let him have that luxury in his contract?

The problem with Rubio doing what Wade, LeBron etc did contract wise is that he would have to be in Minnesota all that time. Wade and LeBron are players that could carry the team - Rubio's not that guy. He could be a great facilitator but he's going to need talent around him to win. Also I'm assuming he wants to be part of the LeBron train in NY and play for D'Antoni - if he has to wait 7 seasons (4 rookie + 3 contract then opt out) in addition to the 2 he would spend in Spain...LeBron will be heading toward mid 30s at that point. I'm sure he'll still be a good player but not what he's going to be for the next 5-6 years.

There's lots of scenarios - it's going to be interesting to see what he does.

How do you figure? If he turns into an All-Star, they'll have to max him out or let him go. Harris was just a 10 and 3 guy off the bench.

Also, if it's such a good thing to be playing in Spain as a young player, why doesn't everyone do it? Why didn't Derrick Rose head over there after he was drafted for a couple years? Why didn't Brandon Jennings hang there another couple years?

I mean if Spain is the place to be to develop, it's odd that all these guys want to get to the NBA as quick as possible.

Because they weren't 18-years old with a massive buyout. Spain is nice when you're 15-19 years old. Once you hit 20, you're developed enough to try in the NBA.

If Rubio didn't have the buyout issue and was going to a better situation than Minnesota, it might not be a bad idea for him to come to the NBA now. I think New York or even Oklahoma City might be a nice fit for him to play next season with some success. As it sits now in Minnesota, he's going to have no shooters, multiple PGs and a team without a coach in a small market. I'd probably stay in Spain as well if faced with paying $5 million to join that situation.

The buyout issue is so overblown. Just about everyone is reporting that it will be reduced a lot so that both sides are happy (the team is losing a ton of money and can use the cash). Not to mention that his shoe deal alone in the U.S. will more than cover that buyout. That doesn't include all the other endorsement deals he has on the table in the U.S. Rubio is the most marketable guy who was drafted.

Wilson Chandler would be a start - not enough obviously but Chandler can play and the Wolves could use a good wingman. Other than that though - got me. David Lee is not going to be worth the contract his stats might get him. He would make an excellent 6th man though if you could sign him to a reasonable contract.

I don't really know where a decent trade would even lie. Golden State for Curry + Biedrins + Wright? Nellie loves Curry though.

Rubio's been a pain the entire draft process but Minnesota screwed this up too. They should have just taken Rubio and Curry and been done with it. Curry's got a much better chance of being useful in the league than Flynn or anyone else drafted behind him. In fact I would say Curry's the 3rd best prospect in the draft (which isn't saying much for the draft). Golden State probably takes Hill and makes the deal for Amar'e and NY takes Flynn. Then if Rubio pitches a fit you trade him for Flynn + Chandler - that way you still got your guy in Flynn plus a free Wilson Chandler.

If I were Kahn and I really did want Rubio (don't know why he wouldn't) I would go to him and ask him if I trade Flynn will you shut up and play. If he says yes I trade Flynn to one of a couple teams in need of a PG and then he doesn't have another rookie PG on the roster with him. If he doesn't agree to play then I leave him in Spain until someone is willing to overpay for him. If he's going to trade him then he needs to stop this nonsense about him and Flynn playing together and that he will wait forever for Rubio...nobody believes it anyway.

Lee doesn't have much value for Minnesota since they already have Love and Jefferson. I would have offered up Rubio for the 8th pick and Chandler. Then taken Terrence Williams with the pick. Would have been a nice young lineup of Flynn, Williams, Chandler, Jefferson, and Love.

Rubio's been playing pro ball since he was 14 - he's played against some of the best NBA players already in the Olympics. If he's not ready to try the NBA by now what more is two more years of pro ball in Spain going to do that the last 5 haven't already?

OKC would have been an issue because of Westbrook - he's apparently as fragile as Rubio when it comes to having another young point on the roster. NY won't be any better this year than last - they're not going to want to spend money to improve and so far the biggest addition is Darko. NY and Minnesota are equally bad - the only difference is his stats would be much better playing D'Antoni-ball. If Duhon could average 8 assists a game Rubio may have led the league in assists there. NY's the ideal situation for next season though assuming LeBron shows up and the much, much larger market - can't imagine why he wants to force his way there :)

They kind of have a Terrence Williams in Corey Brewer already and 8 would have been way too high for him.

Lee would have tremendous value with the right contract - he's a high energy workhorse. Perfect 6th man that would give them a nice 3 man frontcourt rotation. Of course Lee is going to want $10M + which should make him far less attractive in a deal.

I would have to think that if he was Juan Rubio, he wouldn't be nearly as marketable. For some reason, the first name really works....he sounds like a superhero.

Btw, really curious thing.

3 players have been drafted from the same Spanish team, DKV Joventut, that is of course a record as i even doubt that two players from the same European team have been ever drafted in the same year.

1.5 Ricky Rubio (DKV Joventut)
1.30 Christian Eyenga (DKV Joventut B team)
2.17 Henk Norel (DKV Joventut)

The most surprising one is Eyenga, that plays in the DKV B team, that plays in the Spanish 3rd division league.

Yeah Eyenga is the questionable pick by the Cavs I believe. He has athleticism, but that's about it is from I've read.

That pick is reminiscent of the first round picks of the Spurs. Pick a young guy in Europe. Let him stay there and learn the game more and get more experience. Then bring him over when you actually have a hole to fill.

The pick is dumber when you consider the Cavs are trying to win now and don't know if they'll have Lebron next year. With Young and Blair on the board still, seems silly not to throw a flier at one of them.

What do you find so different between JJ Reddick and Curry? Reddick is a better pure shooter than Curry and runs off picks better and he isnt anything but rotation player. I cant see how you can say Curry is the 3rd best prospect in the draft. He is so overhyped because of his tourny performance two years ago its not even funny. Flynn is just a flat out player he carried cuse on his back so many times this year when everyone else on that team had no clue how to win. I felt bad for him so many times this past year. He will be better than Curry or Rubio.

I think Curry is overated and would have been mid-first round in a better draft. But he's much different than Reddick. He's quicker and a better passer. Plus he can create his own shot unlike Reddick. I'd also say Curry has a better basketball IQ.

I don't think Curry is a starter in the NBA (could be a great 6th man), but he's a much better prospect than Reddick.

I haven't seen anything to make me think Reddick is a better shooter and he definitely can't create his own shot or pass as well as Curry. That being said, I do agree that he was overhyped based off that tourney performance as well as his dad's legacy.

Portland drafted 2 backup CSKA Moscow swingmen back to back in 2004 - Viktor Khrypa and Sergei Monia at 22/23.

Agreed for the most part. I do see think that they may have wanted to reduce luxury tax where they could. Paying a rookie scale salary wastes about a half million bucks vs just paying a min wage scrub.

Ferry's drafting and FA acquisitions have been pretty poor, he managed to do a solid job in trades. Although they were just mitigating damages that he'd previously created. It goes back to blowing a pick on Luke Jackson, and then botching Boozer. Those were substantial nails in the Bron window, and probably will end up assuring that there will be no title in the near future.

I think the Cavs have been one of the worst run organizations since Lebron got there. They haven't been able to bring in any talent to surround him with despite having some money to throw around.

we've both seen the damage a Paxson can do to a franchise first hand.

My brother and I were joking the other day about former Bulls guards being shitty in management roles. We've got Paxson, Kerr, and Jordan. BJ Armstrong is a GM in training. God have mercy on whatever team he ends up with.

Considering they put themselves in position to draft LeBron, I would say they have been one of the worst run organizations since before LeBron got there as well.

Like I said, I feel Curry is the 3rd best prospect in the draft - on the whole I think this draft blows and is the weakest one in a long time so being 3rd best of a bad draft isn't much.

I think there are fairly significant differences between Curry and Reddick. I think Curry is more athletic, a better ball handler and better shooter within the flow of a game. Reddick had help in college - Duke usually has some decent players. Curry was the team so the numbers he put up this season were with defenses throwing everything they had at him. I think Curry understands the game better and some of the poor shots or poor decisions he made this season were simply because he had to do something with the ball. On his team even a terrible shot by him was probably still better than a good look for someone else.

I don't think Curry will ever be an all-star or anything like that. I think he could be a starter long term though - a guy who averages 12-15 a night as a 3rd/4th option on the team. There is always room for a player in the league who can score and doesn't have to rely on others to do so. That's the issue with Reddick - I'm sure he's deadly in a game of HORSE but really the only thing he's capable of bringing to the table right now is hitting wide open threes.

Rubio averaged like 3.4 points per game in a minor league in Spain. He will never average 17 points in any league.

He's still a teenager, Sam. Tim Hardaway averaged 4.1ppg his freshman year at UTEP, yet somehow he managed to have a very nice NBA career. And I'm sure there are many, many other NBA players who put up similar numbers their first year in college...

What did he score the year before he came to the NBA?

Did he ever shoot 30% from the floor, 20% from jump shots?

Dude has all the makings of a bust. He'll be the bust of this draft.

As a UNC fan, it pains me to say it, but Reddick also had the advantage of a great coach in College. Coach K is really good at getting his team's offense to run through his best players.

dola: I've wondered sometimes what would have happened had Kobe gone to Duke for a couple of years and bought into the system there. I think that Coach K could have had him scoring 35 a game.

What does that have to do with anything? You're quoting numbers from when he was 18...players develop and get better with age.


No, he didn't, but Timmy didn't develop a jumper until his senior year at UTEP, and it wasn't a particularly great one at that. Rubio still has a few years to work on his shot as well...


All I know is that Rockets GM Daryl Morey is enamored with Rubio, and Morey hasn't done anything yet to make me not trust his judgment.

Well putting it this way. Reddick also played against top notch players and many more high pressure situations than Curry. Im not sure that you can say Reddick played with better players without taking into consideration the joke of the conference Curry played in.

Their college vitals look very similiar to me. Curry did get a lot more steals and assists than Reddick, he also turned the ball over much more.

2009 scouting report for Davidson


2006 scouting report for Duke

I will agree that from looking at this Curry does have a bit more potential than Reddick because he can atleast get steals and create his own shot however I would say the difference is very marginal. I had previously thought Reddick shot around 48% from 3 pointers when over their college careers it was pretty much even.

No chance! Duke has had some wonderful players (Grant Hill, Jayson Williams, Elton Brand, Christian Laetner, etc.) and none of them have come close to averaging that. They have too many other options.

Coach K is good at putting his players in situations to be effective IM really not sure where this "getting his offense to run through his best players" comes from. Other than Reddick scoring much more than any one of his teammates Duke is one of the most balanced scoring teams year in and year out because they are loaded.

I dunno where you have that numbers from but they are false :

ACB

Rubio averaged 10 Points a game shooting 40%, which obviously isn´t great but considering he sat out the first couple weeks with a wrist injury and played a couple of weeks with a protection on his shooting hand. He averaged about 13 a game his last 15 games withot the brace and shot a respectable 24/54 from 3 in that span.
He shot 81 % from the line, so that´s a promising sign unlike like for, say, Rajon Rondo.

He also ranked 14th in efficiency rating in about 23 minutes a game (no one on his team played more than 25, shorter games and a deep rotation)

He did average very few points in this years Euroleague. But he only played 5 games, all still with the protection on his hand and playing 2, 7 and 10 minutes his first 3 games.

@ jbergey : Stats are all fine and nice, but seeing Curry and Redick play there´s a noticeable difference. Not nesceserily in quality (as Redick was an amazing College player) but in style of play and ability to play on the ball and thus making a transition. Curry is lightyears ahead in terms of Passing ability, is a much more fluid athlete (kind of like Steve Nash in that aspect while Redick is more like Steve Kerr) and is much better at creating his own shot and simply has an in-between game that Redick didn´t have that clearly.
And his Turnovers ? Did you see a Davidson game this year ? It was like Wade having to play1-5 last year only even more drastic. He had a usage rate that was just unbelievable and that was with a coach (McKillop is good btw) that tried everything to take off the pressure off of him, playing a 2nd small guard and designing a ton of plays until they needed him to score desperately.
I mean, he had a game where the other teams Coach (Loyola Maryland, wasn´t it ?) double teamed him off the ball with the others playing 3 on 4 in a zone defense ...
That being said i´m still convinced Redick will eventually be a 6th or 7th man on a good team with like 12-14 points a game.

Well fuck, looks like Yao may be done...

Rockets could lose Yao for season, if not longer - NBA - Yahoo! Sports

that sucks ... He doesn´t deserve that ... :(

that does suck. gotta say i agree with this point though:

The Rockets should do themselves a favor and just start over. That isn’t easy in a sophisticated and rabid NBA market like Houston, but what everyone long suspected has reached fruition: Yao and McGrady are no longer a faulty foundation, but a collapsed one. Houston needs to proceed with an understanding that they’re no longer chasing the Lakers, but beginning again.

they need to clear cap space (McGrady and Artest) and start over. If they get Yao back that's great and he can contribute. If not he retires and they get that cap space.