Haven't really been keeping up with Europe but apparently there is a second wave going on (or in-progress)? Easing of lock downs and reopening the economies.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/europ...ntl/index.html

Jup, Spain and France especially are just stumbling towards desaster. Especially in Paris, Madrid and the South of France you already have hospitals stretched and operating in contingency modes.
UK could also be ugly. Cases not jumped as much yet but their procedures are an utter shambles with private contractors not suited or having the power they need.

Testing and Tracing was never properly set up. Yeah, France and the UK for example now tests a lot but has no lab capacity or PH ressources to go along with that, meaning they face the same issues as the US with looooong wait times for results and difficulty accessing them for the public (basically waiting in line for hours).

Germany so far still keeping up with demand, but the margins get smaller and what's already a wrinkle is that age of cases creeps up. 0-49 stayed stable the lasz 2 weeks, 50+ up 40%.

And fall/winter isn't even close, which will 100% have a negative aspect. Some People are under the insane impression that the spread not disapearing in Summer means it won't be that bad. As if the 'floor' (spreading under worst, for the virus, circumstances) says anything about the 'ceiling'.
It's a respiratory virus spread best indoors ...

There is no "Europe" in this context, so I can't speak about the other 50+ countries on the western part of Eurasia, but the Netherlands is seeing the start of the second wave in North and South Holland. Infection rate (R) is 1.4 here right now, probably bigger than in this part of the country. Hospitalization rate is behind on the wave of infections, but R is reason for concern.

Almost as if an expected second wave in the fall and winter is going to second wave?

SI

One more time: there really is no "Europe" in this context. There's a wide variety how countries are coping with this, are hit by it, either by their own actions or by random luck. Hence, my previous similar statements, I'm only going to comment about the situation here (the Netherlands) and it will only reflect on how it is here, and probably only on where I live: in the outer regions of a crowded city (a small city with a high population density). I have hardly a clue about how it goes in other provinces, like those that border Germany and Belgium. Let alone, how good or bad it is over the border in Belgium and Germany, not to mention our other neighbor across the North Sea in the UK (from where I live, the border with the UK is technically closest). My hometown is in the middle of what our neighboring countries this week have upgraded to a "red zone": stay away, 2 weeks of quarantine compulsory if you've been there. But it doesn't feel like we're in a red zone at all.

Perhaps how good things were going about 6-8 weeks ago here are catching us off guard. It felt like it was gone (it wasn't) and people were slowly getting "back to normal". But "good" was relative, Maassluis was the center of the COVID-19 news for about a week when a mini-outbreak wiped out a chunk of nursery home's population.

As a result, I think people here are thinking: "huh, second wave already? This wasn't supposed to be back until flu season, when it starts raining again." But since about 3 years ago it doesn't even rain anymore in September, flu season used to slowly start mid to late September (*looks at calendar*). And this September even more, it actually feels like it's July on the Mediterranean coast. I posted in the extreme weather thread about it being 30 Celsius in September. Nobody alive has experienced that before in this country. Who said it will get cooler, just watch?

Besides that climate change, what I think is catching people off guard is the not knowing/realizing they could be carrying it. Sure, it might not help that we're not allowed to test without any symptoms, despite we all know you can have it without showing symptoms. Testing is limited, we can't waste the resources. Digging up some numbers, we're heading towards 2K positive cases on a capacity of roughly 25K test per day, with a 17M population. Knowing that still a good portion of those tested isn't really showing symptoms, if you want to get tested, just say you have symptoms.

Tonight was a new press conference by the minister-president and the minister of health care, but it's like: okay, we see more people catching it, testing positive, but very few getting severely ill. As if it only hops around between healthy people. They tried to urge all to remember the social distancing rules, but so much has gone out of lockdown, in rural areas people are starting to act like it's vanished. Despite that the number of infected people in the big 4 cities is spiking to higher numbers than the peaks in April/May. But apparently the Facebook feeds of people are no longer flooded by COVID-19, or whatever.

Before this post gets any longer, I think our sense of "back to normal" takes away the cautiousness. not just because we're back to normal (we aren't!), but people acting like the semi-lockdown is over. And the lack of seeing it around us is seriously making us all, well, less cautious. Unaware. Naive? Dare I call it ignorant?

Went to get my regular 4-5 week haircut at the mall. My haircut place did a great job on masks and social distancing but very disappointed to see large minority of people not wearing masks inside the mall. Covid fatigue I'm sure, made me want to take off my mask also.

There was an anti-lockdown demo in Trafalgar Square today. One of the placards read ‘A virus smarter than the people it effects’... oh, the irony!

Been to that place! Not near as active as Times Square but still fun.

Maybe this will end up being a better fit for the political thread, but who knows what's going on.

Last week the CDC published that COVID is spread by droplets and aerosols. Today the CDC revoked that and said it was just a draft.

Been trying to keep up on vaccine progress or lack of.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...?mod=home-page

I'm not sure if this has always been there but I noticed today they had vaccine "target effectiveness".


Don't know what "target effectiveness" really means but as a layperson reading this, I am somewhat disappointed. But something is definitely better than nothing.

Yeah. Hopefully that's a floor and the actual number is better.

We can get well over 50% with masks and distancing.

The flu vaccine effectiveness last year was around 45%.

Interim Estimates of 2019–20 Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness — United States, February 2020 | MMWR

Do they consider "effectiveness" as prevention from getting the virus, or do they consider it as mitigating seriousness of contracting the disease itself? Because my son got the flu vaccine last year, then ended up getting the flu in like January and had some mild-to-moderate symptoms for about a day. My wife and I didn't get it at all with a lot of close contact to him (though we did start on the flu meds as soon as we found out he had it).

The flu study is a reduction in positive confirmed cases of flu.

Yeah, so in this case I would think that it will be some percentage effective in preventing COVID, but another percent effective in preventing severe cases. Thanks

That cheers me up some.

More good news I guess.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...ial-u-n1240446

Good news, bad news with this virus:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...s/?arc404=true


So it appears this mutation may not have made Covid-19 deadlier, but may have made it more contagious.

Now, it hasn't been peer reviewed yet, note.

I'm really worried about the effect ofa vaccine that is 50% effective. People expect a vaccine will be a cure, and when reports of vaccinated people getting sick start rolling social media will drown in anti-vax stories.

The latest estimates are @400000 deaths by Jan 1, and I'm starting to lean towards 1000000 or more before this is over.

The 4th vaccine entering Phase 3 made me wonder what was the success rate for a Phase 3 vaccine?

There's a chart in the middle of the article. For vaccines (infectious disease) it's at 85.4% once a drug gets into Phase 3 (think I'm reading that right).

Clinical Trial Success Rates by Phase and Therapeutic Area | American Council on Science and Health

However, there's a big caveat. Still a lot of unknowns.

So bottom-line. Eagerly awaiting a FDA approved vaccine. But won't be in the first set of vaccinations (wait 4-6 weeks maybe?).

I'm curious where this goes and if it can be validated. There have been other studies about the "G Strain" supplanting the "D Strain" (I believe) from earlier in the summer.

However, I'm a but surprised about a paper that found it "more contagious", "with higher viral load", and yet not "deadlier or changed clinical outcomes". That seems to fly in the face of what we "know" about this virus.

Then again, we're still learning about it so I'm definitely open to the idea that what we thought we knew a few months ago isn't actually true, but, man - it seems like we're starting to know more about it and this goes against a lot of that.

SI

Generally mutations make viruses less deadlier (while also making them more contagious). And that was the hope with Covid mutations that it would make the virus less deadly. It's a bit saddening if the mutations did not make it less deadlier while making it more contagious.

And again and it annoys the shit out of me this is not clarified in all those articles: This all happened in February/March for a lot of areas ! What happened in NYC (there was a study showing that, while IIRC correctly the West Coast had the old one dominant for a while), Italy, France etc was almost exclusively caused by this very version of the virus people keep speculating is a weaker version. In Italy 100% of tests showed exactly this one from Feb 20th.
It might well be weaker than the older version (as you said that makes sense for a virus) but that does not change anything because that switch happened in February/March and not recently. So pinning any hopes on that as a "well, the virus now is less dangerous" thing makes no sense.

DEFINE_ME

(Graphics in the appendix)

So, yup - just restating what was found out and reported on this summer about what had happened months prior.

Looks like the Washington Post article shows that graphic at the very end but doesn't really talk about it in the article so you'd have to bring that knowledge with you from other articles/papers.

Idle speculation: Because of that timeline, I wonder if it is actually more deadly but has been offset by how we've made it less deadly with the better knowledge we have of treating the virus. Which would also be bad news. As ISiddiqui says, viruses tend to mutate to less deadly (the whole "downward pressure" idea because if you kill hosts, well, it's harder to reproduce.

SI

My phone doesn't do graphics from the Post for some reason and i admittedly skimmed the article ... (But there were a wave of them over here recently from a lot less dilligent media, often of a certain tendency to declare it all over)

Many scientists actually don't think it is even close to being that functionally different (even the respective study authors are very cautious with that Interpretation). It might just be due to migratory effects, i.e. being introduced by more people from the outside. (In Asia both versions were evenly spread in April still btw) Coincidence happens and with still lowish numbers has a disproportionate effect.

Also scientists are in agreements that this virus (like coronaviruses in general) is not mutating significantly, that's just not sth they are build to do. More than, say, Measles or others but way less than the Influenza Viruses. And if you read about dozens or hundreds of genetically different versions that's correct. But that's way less exciting than it sounds. 99,9 % of genetical changes don't have any effect (or in animals/humans just visual ones, too).

The sum of it is discussion on purposely infecting candidates for vaccine research. Obviously not educated enough to understand the pros and cons of this approach but TBH, doesn't sit well with me when we are talking about a life threatening infection. Interesting ethical dilemma.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/23/healt...ntl/index.html

That idea is beyond dumb on so many levels.

Sure seems like Boris has been working to purposefully expose people to the virus for the past few months.

A long read. What I got out of it was

• Vaccine by late 2020 or early 2021
• First set of vaccines won't be as effective as later ones
• Everyone will get vaccinated by 2H 2021
• Over time/years, it'll eventually become like the flu

Or in other words, long road ahead and die with a whimper, not a bang. I think most of us know this but I am disappointed by the 2H (or actually Nov) 2021 projection. You would think most of US could get vaccinated in the 1H.

Disappointing that article only had one paragraph on therapies, I think therapies are just as important as vaccines especially in the near term.

Here’s How the Pandemic Finally Ends - POLITICO

There are way too many people out there that consider an upcoming vaccination "the mark of the beast". I'm very curious if attitudes change in the Evangelical community by then.

Lol at masks and avoiding large gatherings in 2021. Lots of people won't do that now. I'm pretty sure that before football season ends we'll see full college stadiums.

Not that different than these articles written back in March:
Coronavirus: How does the Covid-19 outbreak end? - Vox
How Will the Coronavirus End? - The Atlantic


Some of the future predictions were a bit off and there were no dates. But the process and ideas were the same.

SI

I do have this morbid thought: we are, as an American society (and I'm sure this is true around the world, too - just to different percentages) working towards herd immunity. The people who will take the vaccine and the people who don't trust a vaccine/wear a mask are working towards it - just in different ways. One part is working towards avoiding it until they can get vaccinated while another part is working on catching it and getting immunity that way.

SI

I wonder if masks will start getting more "creative" as Halloween approaches.

I hope so. I usually get a laugh or two when I go out grocery shopping in my plague doctor mask.

Somewhat related, wife and I were discussing if Halloween was even going to happen much this year.

Wouldn't parents be concerned about kids taking candy (1) from someone's hand or (2) from a candy box that had a bunch of other hands in it and afterwards (3) unwrapping candy that's been touched or breathed on by someone etc.

We were wondering how we would distribute the candy and were thinking about a spaghetti fork/spatula where we would scoop the candy into kids hands.

We are skipping Halloween. Not going to mess with it. My job tells me to protect my bubble, so seeing a bunch of random people is not worth it.

And our subdivision is a very popular stop for the towns people.

We were talking about this, too. We're either doing nothing or leaving out a bowl of candy for kids to take from at their own risk. Not really excited about this and bummed that we're going to miss a fun year for Halloween with our 5yo :(

SI

If Im drinking bourbon and get a runny nose, do I have covid?

Better drink more bourbon to find out.

We've got a really good Halloween system going where my B-I-L sets up a firepit at that top of his driveway and we sit there and drink lots of beer while we hand out candy while our kids go trick or treat in the neighborhood.

It is going to suck to not get to do that this year. We've really distilled it down to a perfect holiday (beer, candy, fire).

Yes. We build a fire in the fire pit in the driveway and sit by it. We have a table by the sidewalk and let the kids get what they want and we enjoy life.

This year is a no go.

If there was ever a right answer to a question, this is it to every question. Drink more.

Wife and I had a discussion and have agreed not to patronize stores that do not have mask required.

There is a bagel store close by that my wife drops by after a run. For the past 3 weekends, there's been customers lined up without masks.

I know our Kroger have the mask required. I honestly don't know if Publix or Target does, I'll pay closer attention next time.

There's also a car tune-up, oil change, tire place that is owned by someone in our subdivision. It's got a lighted up sign saying "only 1% death rate" (no idea where he got that stat), you get the idea. That used to be our go-to place for non major stuff since it was so close but we're not going to give it our business anymore.

Unbelievably stupid for a business to make a statement like that.

I walked into a pizza joint the other day that I don’t usually go to. 4 people behind the counter. Three not wearing a mask. Turned around and left.

We've made this decision with regards to our food carryout. Though I'd argue it's as much about self-preservation than anything. I don't want a bunch of people who don't care about this messing with my food. Yes, there are no confirmed food or fomite transmission cases but it's not impossible. And I suspect some of that has to do with the fact that you can't trace down the transmission means for the majority of cases.

I guess, similar idea with the car place: I wouldn't want to get into my car if some dude not wearing a mask was breathing (coughing?) in it for a few minutes before I was in it. That said, we haven't done any car stuff in 6 months because we just aren't driving it that much.

SI

Our local pizza/pasta place had the same thing the last time we did take-out. We haven't ordered from them since.

Yup. We have a new pizza place b/c of what I saw the employees of our old pizza place doing.

This all makes me wonder if these states that are "opening the economy" are really going to get the boosts that they expect.

With most places putting half-measure into place and then not even enforcing those, it seems like most everyone who wants to be out and about is already doing it.

And a lot of people who have switched to takeout/curbside, etc. aren't doing it to comply with the law but because they don't want to catch a dangerous disease.

Opening things up is not going to get these people back into stores and resturants.

Only some combination of widely available rapid testing, mask compliance, and a vaccine is going to really get the economy "open" again.

There isn't a restaurant in Newburgh where the atmosphere is worth taking a risk regarding the virus. I'd hate to get to heaven and have to tell St. Peter that I died because I absolutely had to experience the atmosphere at Perkins.

I don't know the layouts of the places mentioned but do consider one thing. If the ovens/kitchens are in close proximity to the counter, restaurant kitchens are a fucking sauna. Wearing a mask constantly in a super hot kitchen has got to be unbearable. Entirely possible they were just taking some time to breathe.

I don't know the specific situation, but if there were no customers in close proximity, and they weren't actively preparing food, they might deserve to be cut a little slack.

In my case, it's a small area. The east side is a prep station. The west side is for pizza by the slice display. The south side is the pizza oven. The real problem is the north side is the register and food pickup. The last time I went in, there were four people in this small area, one guy had a mask, but it was around his neck, one guy had a mask on his chin, below his mouth, and the two girls doing the register and takeout didn't have masks at all.

edit: It takes two steps to get from one side to the opposite side.