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MartinD 05-13-2009 03:56 PM

Apologies for not checking in earlier - got in a bit later than usual, and have only just been able to catch up in the last 20 minutes or so.

Will post my vote for today shortly...

Danny 05-13-2009 03:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2020691)
I also think that Jackal is just playing his role with the vote movements early and having fun with it. So

unvote EF

vote ntndeacon

My move here is partially self-defense at this point as I would likely have to end up here anyway.


PB can you please go back to the regular font

Chief Rum 05-13-2009 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2020570)
I'll run some math on the first part of Chief's pet theory: "Two people at random are likely to be villager/villager"

In a vacuum, if you assume 4 wolves + 1 sympathizer, then there are 16 "good" and 5 "bad" votes at this point.

16/21 * 15/20 = 240/420 = 57.1%
OK, this part does hold up although it is not much of a margin. If there are 6 "bad" votes then it doesn't hold up (exactly 50%).

The initial thing that tweaked me on this was the idea that we had to be villager/villager. I understand that the wolves like to shape the conversation, which shifts the probability from where it would be in a vacuum. But the wolf assignments are random. There isn't much they can do about "quiet player backlash" if NTN is a wolf, just to give one example. I've been a wolf a number of times on Day 1 where I've been stuck in cross-fires with another wolf and had to work like hell in mid/late day to generate movement away from me and my partners.

Also, the communication patterns of the wolves may make it difficult for them to shake out the votes just so (1 for each of two leaders) this early in the day.

I agree with Lathum that it is somewhat convenient to come up with a Day 1 theory that puts himself in the clear, clears two more players (the guys with votes) and creates discussion around 8 people.

If it in fact turns out that Chief was right then at the end of the game I will tip my cap to him (assuming he is not a wolf with inside info) but this feels a little too neat to me.


I have countered the "cleared" part above, which is a ridiculous assumption on both Lathum's part and your own, but I entirely agree about the potential flaws to running with this theory without more evidence, which is why I strongly advocate no one apply it right now (and maybe not ever). Your "communication" example is an excellent point to consider. This theory is based on the underlying assumption that the wolves are fully involved and available and working together with their votes, which is an entirely unsafe assumption to make. It's just another reason why at this point the theory is meaningless, but it will be interesting to see if it plays out anywhere near correct.

BTW, this theory is based on wolf decisions, and the wolves have no idea who the sympathizer is. So from their perspective, assuming four wolves, there are 17 villagers. Meaning the likelihood of a villager vs villager battle is 17/21*16/20 == 64.7%. That's a little more likely than your numbers, FWIW.

Poli 05-13-2009 04:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa (Post 2020359)
did you get hold of Poli's crack?


Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2020361)
Do you mean qrack?

Funny, funny. One more of these and I started using the letter Q repeatedly.

Poli 05-13-2009 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia (Post 2020445)

UNVOTE NTNDEACON
VOTE NO LYNCH


If all the villagers have some sort of role, I think the risk of getting rid of one is just too great.


Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93 (Post 2020452)
How do we vote out needies if we are too afraid to lynch villagers? How do we get information that leads to the lynching of needies if we are afraid to lynch villagers? I do not think this is a good idea Pass.

While Hoops definitely has my ear with what I think is logical (no offense to Eaglefan, I know we've had our fights over the word 'logic") deduction on voting Eags, I think Pass's thought has merit. Since we all have roles, clearly we're all beneficial to the cause. Not lynching allows more of us to be involved and help root out the wolves. It slows the game down in other words and forces the wolves to eliminate us slowly while we gain more and more information.

Lathum 05-13-2009 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum (Post 2020725)

So, no, if you think my theory in some vindicates me, you pretty much about read that as wrong as you could. So kudos to you--not many people could pull that off to so far effect.


If you don't think your theory looks like you are deflecting attention from yourself to another group of people then your out of your fucking mind.

claphamsa 05-13-2009 04:06 PM

something tells me Poli is gonna run off abotu 15 posts.... quoting post from hours ago :)

Poli 05-13-2009 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2020479)
There is no randomness. Since there is some confusion I will reveal that the only way that a no lynch vote would win is if everyone voted that way. If there is someone with votes on them, then the no lynch votes are wasted, even if they are the majority. I'll update the rules with this option.

Bah.

ntndeacon 05-13-2009 04:07 PM

hey as long as he throws the spotlight on all those needies on me I am all for it.

hoopsguy 05-13-2009 04:07 PM

Chief, I don't worry as much about you = cleared (obviously not the case) as floating the idea as a way of changing the direction of the voting.

If we are not villager/villager (43% chance, if Sympathizer does not equal villager, using 4+1 line) then the wolves would probably be in favor of changing the current dynamic to get one of their own out of a potential showdown.

So, the question I'm asking myself is whether or not you are trying to do exactly that.

Lathum 05-13-2009 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 2020730)

I don't even know if he is playing in character this game as it's pretty much like any other game where someone looks at him and the paranoia begins (usually ending with him being a wolf).

?


find the last game I was a wolf and acted this way.

With the exception of being converted last game I don't even remember the last time I was a wolf.

Someone looks at me I look back, period. I always play that way so I guess I am always a wolf.

Autumn 05-13-2009 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poli (Post 2020756)
While Hoops definitely has my ear with what I think is logical (no offense to Eaglefan, I know we've had our fights over the word 'logic") deduction on voting Eags, I think Pass's thought has merit. Since we all have roles, clearly we're all beneficial to the cause. Not lynching allows more of us to be involved and help root out the wolves. It slows the game down in other words and forces the wolves to eliminate us slowly while we gain more and more information.


Except we can't reveal the information the unlisted roles provide, so I'm not sure we're going to be accumulating much of anything.

It's always tempting not to lynch a bunch of villagers, as we usually do, but even if we get some good scans or something, without a voting record that's not going to give us much.

hoopsguy 05-13-2009 04:10 PM

Dola, using your logic that the wolves don't know Sympathizer then they would only feel the need to move/influence the vote to protect their own about 1/3 of the time.

MartinD 05-13-2009 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poli (Post 2020756)
While Hoops definitely has my ear with what I think is logical (no offense to Eaglefan, I know we've had our fights over the word 'logic") deduction on voting Eags, I think Pass's thought has merit. Since we all have roles, clearly we're all beneficial to the cause. Not lynching allows more of us to be involved and help root out the wolves. It slows the game down in other words and forces the wolves to eliminate us slowly while we gain more and more information.


From post 463:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2020479)
There is no randomness. Since there is some confusion I will reveal that the only way that a no lynch vote would win is if everyone voted that way. If there is someone with votes on them, then the no lynch votes are wasted, even if they are the majority. I'll update the rules with this option.


Is 'no lynch' a viable option? All it takes for the 'no lynch' to be overridden is one lynch vote - suspect that we (as a group) are going to struggle to get that level of consensus...

hoopsguy 05-13-2009 04:10 PM

I'm going to give up on "dola" today - too many of you guys posting :)

Danny 05-13-2009 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MartinD (Post 2020773)
From post 463:



Is 'no lynch' a viable option? All it takes for the 'no lynch' to be overridden is one lynch vote - suspect that we (as a group) are going to struggle to get that level of consensus...


I didn't say viable, but it is an option.:p

Poli 05-13-2009 04:11 PM

Martin, see my "Bah" post above.

Poli 05-13-2009 04:11 PM

Danny sucks. There, I said it.

MartinD 05-13-2009 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2020775)
I didn't say viable, but it is an option.:p


Just one that appears to have the proverbial snowball's chance... :lol:

Danny 05-13-2009 04:12 PM

Plus it's my game, so I can go with my own bias of not liking no lynch votes :)

MartinD 05-13-2009 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poli (Post 2020777)
Martin, see my "Bah" post above.


I did see it - unfortunately, that would be after I'd made my post, and it's a bit late to do anything about it at that point ;)

Danny 05-13-2009 04:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poli (Post 2020779)
Danny sucks. There, I said it.


Hmmm, maybe this game could use some random GM events. I wonder if it would be viable for lightning to strike a player inside the therapy room

EagleFan 05-13-2009 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2020758)
If you don't think your theory looks like you are deflecting attention from yourself to another group of people then your out of your fucking mind.


:lol:

Queue Lathuming in 3.....2.....1......

Poli 05-13-2009 04:15 PM

You could always Bull Moose Special me. That seems to work like a champ. I thought I was darn near invincible last game when ntn passed me the rifle.

I felt like I was on Hee Haw.

BLLLEEEWWWH. I was gone.

Telle 05-13-2009 04:15 PM

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I don't have much reason to vote for him.. but I don't like the other options either. I've stated my case against voting for ntndeacon due to "tendency to be quiet". I also think it's too easy for wolves to hide a vote on EagleFan and claim it's because of his vote jumping (note that Passacaglia vote jumped a lot today too.. 5 different votes). So let's keep this a three-horse race and see how things shake out.

And on that note, I'm outta here. Not sure I'll be on again before deadline.

MartinD 05-13-2009 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2020782)
Plus it's my game, so I can go with my own bias of not liking no lynch votes :)


In other words, 'it's ma ba', and ah'm aff hame if ah dinnah get tae dae things mah way'...

(Translation available on request :p )

Telle 05-13-2009 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle (Post 2020788)
VOTE PURDUEBRAD

I don't have much reason to vote for him.. but I don't like the other options either. I've stated my case against voting for ntndeacon due to "tendency to be quiet". I also think it's too easy for wolves to hide a vote on EagleFan and claim it's because of his vote jumping (note that Passacaglia vote jumped a lot today too.. 5 different votes). So let's keep this a three-horse race and see how things shake out.

And on that note, I'm outta here. Not sure I'll be on again before deadline.


forgot...
UNVOTE ABE
VOTE PURDEUBRAD

Chief Rum 05-13-2009 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 2020758)
If you don't think your theory looks like you are deflecting attention from yourself to another group of people then your out of your fucking mind.


I guess I'll fit right into this game then.

ntndeacon 05-13-2009 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2020785)
Hmmm, maybe this game could use some random GM events. I wonder if it would be viable for lightning to strike a player inside the therapy room


runs around in little circles afraid of lightning strikes...

Poli 05-13-2009 04:16 PM

Yeah, I missed that Lathumesque response.

PurdueBrad 05-13-2009 04:19 PM

I'm moving my vote again, based on something that just happened. The person that earlier said I was the unfortunate victim of a run suddenly flips and votes me? Come on.

unvote ntndeacon
vote Telle

PurdueBrad 05-13-2009 04:19 PM

From here on out, I'll only move if a wolf reveals or absolute self-defense.

Like the type size better Lathum?

PurdueBrad 05-13-2009 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2020785)
Hmmm, maybe this game could use some random GM events. I wonder if it would be viable for lightning to strike a player inside the therapy room


Thank you Nurse Ratched, that'll do.

PurdueBrad 05-13-2009 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Telle (Post 2020788)
And on that note, I'm outta here. Not sure I'll be on again before deadline.


AND hit and run to boot!

Chief Rum 05-13-2009 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2020764)
Chief, I don't worry as much about you = cleared (obviously not the case) as floating the idea as a way of changing the direction of the voting.

If we are not villager/villager (43% chance, if Sympathizer does not equal villager, using 4+1 line) then the wolves would probably be in favor of changing the current dynamic to get one of their own out of a potential showdown.

So, the question I'm asking myself is whether or not you are trying to do exactly that.


Understood completely, and that's one reason why I strongly advocate not using this theory at this moment, but keep it as something in mind to look back at in the future. Maybe in game, maybe after the game. In fact, if anyone used my theory to try to build a case at this point in time, it would seal me voting for that person, because no one knows better than me how ripe for flaw this theory is at this point in time.

BTW, the Sympathizer is/isn't a villager isn't a choice or a semantic to be judged with respect to the theory. The theory is based entirely on wolf decisions, what they know, and they do not know who the Sympathizer is.

My guess is the Sympathizer will have his/her vote on a candidate who is clearly not being lynched, therefore ensuring they do not accidentally vote a wolf out.

Poli 05-13-2009 04:21 PM

Last time I heard those words I think Jackal was defending himself against one of my votes last game.

AND I WAS RIGHT.

Poli 05-13-2009 04:22 PM

My previous post was intended to follow PB's Hit and Run comment.

Poli 05-13-2009 04:22 PM

I'm off to work out...I may be back before I head off to church.

hoopsguy 05-13-2009 04:23 PM

For what it is worth, I'm very interested in seeing how this plays out and I think I would prefer the original run-off of NTN vs EF rather than PB as the lynch.

My perceptions, as of right now:
Telle does not want NTN to be voted off.
Autumn did not like the NTN/EF run-off, pushed for new candidate.
Chief Rum posted a theory suggesting we were likely villager/villager.

Now maybe these are all 100% innocent reactions, but right now I'm starting to convince myself that we've got a wolf on the wire in those first two people.

Chief Rum 05-13-2009 04:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2020771)
Dola, using your logic that the wolves don't know Sympathizer then they would only feel the need to move/influence the vote to protect their own about 1/3 of the time.


True, but this theory is dependent on a villager-villager Day One battle, and the wolves' only consideration right now is vote spread.

Chief Rum 05-13-2009 04:23 PM

well, vote spread AND not making a vote that points a target at them saying, "WOLF!", of course.

PurdueBrad 05-13-2009 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2020806)
For what it is worth, I'm very interested in seeing how this plays out and I think I would prefer the original run-off of NTN vs EF rather than PB as the lynch.

My perceptions, as of right now:
Telle does not want NTN to be voted off.
Autumn did not like the NTN/EF run-off, pushed for new candidate.
Chief Rum posted a theory suggesting we were likely villager/villager.

Now maybe these are all 100% innocent reactions, but right now I'm starting to convince myself that we've got a wolf on the wire in those first two people.


I, and I can't believe I'm saying this, think you and I are seeing the same thing here with the ntn-telle-autumn-EF dynamic. I'm not saying this for self-defense purposes but looking back particularly at Telle's posts, that's what I think I'm seeing as well.

Chief Rum 05-13-2009 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 2020786)
:lol:

Queue Lathuming in 3.....2.....1......


Lathum knows, if he tries to Lathum me, I will have no compunction in choosing to Rum him out. ;)

hoopsguy 05-13-2009 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad (Post 2020818)
I, and I can't believe I'm saying this, think you and I are seeing the same thing here with the ntn-telle-autumn-EF dynamic. I'm not saying this for self-defense purposes but looking back particularly at Telle's posts, that's what I think I'm seeing as well.


I'm not yet ready to say that we've got a whole flock of wolves in there, but I would like to test our initial two with lynch/scan (whoever has it) and go from there. Obviously that would take a ton of villager coordination to pull off (leaving votes on those two, seer playing ball, people trusting that I'm not pulling some kind of goofy Day 1 angle, etc) but I think it represents a good starting point for our game based on my impressions so far.

MartinD 05-13-2009 04:28 PM

I'm a bit confused here - finding it hard to work out where to put my vote...

The two main candidates appear to be PB and ntn - don't really want to vote for ntn, as it seems to me that the main reason for him getting votes is that he wasn't around for most of the day (at which point I'm feeling a bit fortunate that I didn't get nailed for that one!), but a vote for PB seems a bit too much like bandwagon-jumping.

I don't see much point in voting for someone else at this point, as almost everyone else is a long way back.

Not absolutely sure about this one, but:

VOTE PURDUEBRAD

Will be on for the next 20 minutes or so - may change this if I feel there's sufficient reason.

hoopsguy 05-13-2009 04:29 PM

Danny, do you have a current vote count?

Danny 05-13-2009 04:30 PM

I'm working on it now

Danny 05-13-2009 04:34 PM

As of post 5597:

1 - Abe - Poli (252)
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
3 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416)
5 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Autumn (455), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
2 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335), NTNDeacon (530)
5 - ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), PurdueBrad (536)
1 - Telle - PurdueBrad (581)

Autumn 05-13-2009 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoopsguy (Post 2020806)
For what it is worth, I'm very interested in seeing how this plays out and I think I would prefer the original run-off of NTN vs EF rather than PB as the lynch.

My perceptions, as of right now:
Telle does not want NTN to be voted off.
Autumn did not like the NTN/EF run-off, pushed for new candidate.
Chief Rum posted a theory suggesting we were likely villager/villager.

Now maybe these are all 100% innocent reactions, but right now I'm starting to convince myself that we've got a wolf on the wire in those first two people.


My concern about the NTN/EF run off was the fact that there wasn't any movement. It seemed like no one was eager to shift off either of these, and four votes on each so early seemed a bit much.

I tend to think neither are wolf or else we would have seen an earlier push to get off of them, but maybe you're right that the push has just come later.

What is our vote count? Telle is the only one to have pinged my radar. I would consider shifting to him, but I'm wary of shifting off to one of the early vote getters for the reasons above.

Abe Sargent 05-13-2009 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny (Post 2020850)
As of post 5597:

2 - Abe - Poli (252),
1 - Passacaglia - Lerriuqs (253)
1 - dubb - saldana (304)
3 - EagleFan - hoopsguy (328), Lathum (396), dubb (416)
5 - PurdueBrad - The Jackel (329), EagleFan (452), Autumn (455), Telle (575), Martin D (595)
2 - PackerFanatic - claphasma (335), NTNDeacon (530)
4 - ntndeacon - PackerFanatic (374), Barkeep (420), Abe (425), Pass (532), PurdueBrad (536)
1 - Telle - PurdueBrad (581)


YTou list 5 for ntn but count it as four


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