I’m not sure I buy the polls that say RFK hurts Trump. His base is so solid and a lot of people who went for Biden last time may go for RFK.

Indeed: httpx://newrepublic.com/article/179548/poll-voters-trump-dictator-threats

Trump really goes against everything we know or assume about a normal candidate yet people still try to treat him like one. As I mentioned earlier here, the more Trump is out there in media, etc, the worse he does. I don't mean just articles covering him, but his tweets, clips from his rallies, statements, anything directly from him. The more exposure he gets the worse he polls.

Kyrsten Sinema announces she won't be running for reelection, and will instead retire to her Super-yacht "Pharma-Money."

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This is why I’m holding out hope as we get closer to the election more people tune in and realize they don’t want another exhausting four year with him.

It'll be interesting to see. I guess the theory is that Trump has his voters but RFK takes those moderate Republicans who would hold their nose and vote for Trump anyway. Plus he gets the anti-vax vote which heavily favors the right.

Yeah, but how many people would have voted Biden over Trump now go to him is the question.

there are a large number of republicans or right leaning independents who would never vote Trump. What percentage splits to RFK instead of holding their nose for Biden

This would be funny if there weren't millions just like him voting

Trump voter tells NBC that a woman won’t make a good president because she “has no balls to scratch.” pic.twitter.com/hn3xiXouGK

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 5, 2024

Biden and RFK are pretty similar moderates on most issues. I don't know why you'd vote RFK over Biden if that's what you're looking for instead of Trump.

I think RFK's base is anti-vax crowd and conspiracy theorists. The people who never forgave Trump for lockdowns and the vaccine. If RFK had come out with a pro-Palestinian stance, I think it would hurt Biden. But he seems lockstep with what Biden is doing there. His stance on Ukraine helps him with Republicans more than Democrats too.

My guess is we'll know more by who is attacking him. It seems like Trump's side has been more concerned of late.

That's two of the Dems biggest thorns (with Mancin not running 3rd party for president.) She was really in the running for worst politician on the Dem side, so i hope she enjoys all the money she made off of it.



I also saw that just recently Kari lake had a big fundraiser for her Senate run and several current Senators were speaking. Really Republicans a multi election denier is the best candidate to support?

Did you really ask this question?

Yes, I saw something a couple of weeks ago about how, like some form of toxic osmosis, GOP mainstreamers have fallen in line with backing Kari Lake.

I'm not sure how many (R) voters you could find that believe the election was on the up & up.

Like me, all may not agree with Trump's take on how it was bogus, but it's not a group where you'd find much confidence in the system in general I don't believe.

edit to add: this comment is to simply point out that election questioners being supported by (R) voters doesn't feel like it should come as any real surprise. I'd have far more doubt about a candidate who swears it was on the up & up at this point, and I don't think I'm any sort of Lone Ranger about that.

And speaking of horrible politicans:


Sen. Bob Menendez hit with new conspiracy and obstruction of justice charges | CNN Politics

Do you have any real reason to believe the 2020 election was fraudulent other than you didn't like the result?

Or that with more and more technology and real time reporting/visibility, we see how the sausage is made, which gives rise to assumptions that things aren't on the up and up? Things like, "Biden got 250K votes dumped in the middle of the night" when that's just a function of how a precinct batched and released votes as opposed to any kind of fraud? And that's how it always worked, way before we got to see it happen in real time?

I just can't get that the average Republican citizen thinks that the best thing to do is kick out all the Dems and start over. jan 6 happened, was investigated as much as Republicans would let it be, and to date not a single Dem has been charged with being behind any of it. not a single reporter/far right journalist has ever come out with a story that the Dems were behind it all and used whatever the Deep State is to cover it all up. Not a single election denier currently in Congress has come up with legitimate evidence that Dems were behind it just conspiracy theories about FBI/CIA involvement, Antifa, Black Lives Matter, nothing. Donald Trump could have come forward with legitimate evidence at any time if he had it and this country would be in turmoil. He doesn't have to go through the Courts-just release it and watch the country burn. Hell even a couple of the Proud boys before going to jail for years were shouting Trump won! when it just didn't happen.

Kari Lake bent the knee early and often. It is as simple as that.

Lake is behind in most polls and has an uphill battle. Biden is polling well behind Gallego so I think her best bet is Biden drags Gallego down. Kind of like how Trump dragged down candidates in Georgia and other parts of the country.

She wants to lose so she can spend a few more years grifting and visiting mar a lardo

Harvesting of ballots filled out by Godonlyknowswho?

Mail-in bullshit (which should never have been allowed outside of special situations that fit under the old absentee standard)

Anybody that trusts all that bullshit is probably part of the problem, not the solution.

So help me God, I swear I'm not giving you a hard time for the hell of it here.

But, umm ... are you kidding? I mean, the quoted part above is pretty detached from any reality I'm aware of.

I know more that believe NO (D) should ever be in any office of any kind that have a problem with removing some. Hell, I'm not sure how many I know that have a problem with Jan 6 (though I definitely know some that say one thing in public and something else in private)

And that's true across everything from the most over the top MAGAs to some of the weakest suburban soccer moms.

Most aren't as succinct about it, nor as open about it, as I tend to be but if you think there's more than a fraction of (R) voters who think having any (D) in office is a good idea then I'm not sure what to even suggest.

Every side cries when they lose elections. It was the evil Russians who prevented the unlikable Hillary Clinton to lose. Just like it's Dominion or one of the other conspiracy theories that cost an unlikable Trump to lose.

Honestly, elections are just coming down to who has the candidate that freaks out suburbanites the least. Republicans running on a platform of being obsessed with children's genitalia didn't play as well with those voters as they thought. Democrats running a guy who would be in a home if they were a family member may not be a good plan either.

But whoever wins, the other side will cry about it being rigged or whatever. Anything but an ounce of self-reflection.

And just ftr, for those who may have missed it along the way, I have consistently said that Trump has barked up the entirely wrong tree with where the election took a detour into Crookville.

I trust Dominion (euphemistically representing the various types of electronic machines, etc) far more than I trust individuals counting votes by hand. To the extent that if Georgia went to paper ballots -- a huge talking point for the hardcore MAGA backers here -- I wouldn't even bother to go vote anymore.

Hence most of them voting for a guy who wants to be an authoritarian ruler and democracy be damned. True patriots.

apparently the North Carolina GOP is about to nominate a guy for governor who called the holocaust hogwash. Unreal.

I think many Dems should be sitting out the holocaust denial stuff when they're doing the same with Gaza right now.

You realize mail-in ballots have been used for years in a number of states without an issue, right?

See, this is where the statements, "mail-in ballots are a problem" and "mail-in ballots help the other party more than mine" intersect. Pardon me if I'm not just the tiniest bit skeptical of the real reason you are opposed to them.

...such as the entire states of Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Hawaii, Oregon, California , Vermont and Washington and the District of Columbia.

I can only say that you'd have to trust me that I have opposed them from the first time I heard of them, which was long before

I'm alright with limited use of it (what I think of as "the old absentee rules" which included providing proof of the reason you couldn't vote in person, that was basically how Georgia did it I can't say how other places did it so ymmv) but that's about it.

If you don't care enough to show the fuck up then I struggle to believe you care enough to put in the effort a vote should have behind it. Plain & simple as that.

Damn, that's an awful lot of places that I'd really rather didn't get involved in national elections at all.

Most have already proven that they're incapable of competent self-governance at the state level as it is.

Poltical chuckle I saw a little while ago.

Apparently that guy who keeps losing to Uncommitted, Phillips (?) has tonight congratulated "Joe Biden, Uncommitted, Marianne Williamson and Nikki Haley for all having more appeal to Dem party loyalists than I do"

I mean, might as well find the humor in the situation I reckon.

Assuming you have the means of transportation, a job/schedule that will allow it, and a reasonably available polling location.

Why Do Nonwhite Georgia Voters Have To Wait In Line For Hours? : NPR

Everyone has a spare five hours, right?

Yeah, and interesting that here in KY, the GOP legislature is trying to cut the few early in-person voting days, too. Because, I guess, people who care enough to show up to vote really don't actually care unless they prove it by showing up on one and only one day, during a work week.

It's important enough that people should show up, but not important enough to make a state or national holiday that would make it easier for people to vote. I mean, first it was, you should care enough to show up in person to vote; then it when people showed up early, it's now... well, if you REALLLY cared about voting, you'd show up on election day!

Funny how that works...

IT SHOULDN'T BE CONVENIENT! IT SHOULD BE PAINFUL!!!

(at the same time omg uber is down how am i going to eat?!?)

:devil:

Biden with 68% in Minnesota, a crucial swing state. Obama got 96% in 2012.

There is NO place in Georgia that doesn't have a reasonably available polling location. Period. Reasonbly available is different than "make it so easy you have to make an effort to avoid it" which is why some will still cry that phony bullshit.

And it's literally illegal in Georgia to deny anyone time off from their job to vote if they're work hours do not allow for them to vote before or after (a two hour window before or after work is the requirement, otherwise they literally HAVE to let you off). And that law was expanded as recently as last year.

So two of the three hystertics from the lefty propaganda arm you listed are utter bullshit.

And God only knows there's not a shortage of rides available for those who claim to be unable to get to the polls, (wouldn't be hard to find some that'd pay you for the privilege honestly).

Voting by mail is still easier. There's no evidence that it results in fraud. So I'll just keep doing it that way.

Just because it hurts the feelings of people who have meltdowns over beer cans and syrup bottles because their candidate lost isn't a good enough excuse to end it.

Heck, most of the new data is showing that higher turnout benefits Republicans now and if they ever got on board with early voting and mail-in ballots, they'd probably control every branch of government.

This was good! :p

Nikki Haley to exit Republican presidential race Wednesday | CNN Politics

Like Thanos this was inevitable.

Given the left's insistence that Biden can't get their votes, I expect Biden's team is reaching out to Cheney and Haley to get their quiet support or open endorsement.

No chance Haley endorses him. She has aspirations to run in 2028. I suspect she will be kissing the ring by spring break. They all do.

Yeah, if Haley endorses Biden then any chance of her running as a Republican again for any office will be gone.

She's done already, she just doesn't realize it yet. If Trump wins there's no path for her and if Trump loses she'll get the blame.

Everything Trump Touches Dies.

Thought experiment: Is there someone that you can think of that could have the strength to pull off a third party or independent candidacy and win this Presidential election? If there has ever been a year that it could happen, it would be this one. I just have a hard time imagining who, and what their platform would be beyond "I am not them."

Joe manchin


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Probably not, no.


Fuck no.

LOLOLOLOOOLLOOL....


No, seriously.


I would think it would have to be someone with a big name, universally liked and deep pockets. I the person is hard to some up with, but I think the platform is even harder.

I don't see it.

There aren't enough "double haters" out there to win a majority of EVs.

Taylor Swift

I think the Rock would be someone that might have enough appeal to draw some votes. He seems similar to Arnold when he rose up and maybe even a little more appealing.

It seems like Oprah used to have that much sway, but not sure I see anyone like that now. People don't like Bezos or Elon and I can't think of any huge multimedia stars nowadays that are not at least somewhat polarizing.

Really I think the thought experiments are:

1. If Trump loses, can you build a third party?
2. If Trump wins, who is groomed as the heir?

In the case of 1, I don't think he goes away. Is there any appetite to try to push him out? Is starting over easier than waging that battle?

In the case of 2, I don't think he goes away until he is dead. I assume he attempts to keep it in the family NK Style, but who knows.

Tom Hanks?

Tom Hanks, wildly viewed as a Pedo by the alt right? That Tom hanks?

If we had a national popular vote I think there's a possibility for a third party, but not with the electoral college. I can't come up with any scenario where a candidate wins enough states. As soon as you start flipping states to a third party you can see how it closes off enough others to make it impossible.

I'd only vote for Otm Shank.

The Rock was one I thought of. Taylor Swift as well, but she is probably too far Left. The Rock could sell as moderate, though I still don't know what a winning sales pitch is. Mark Cuban is another, but I don't think he has the level of charisma needed.

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"If we had a national popular vote I think there's a possibility for a third party, but not with the electoral college. I can't come up with any scenario where a candidate wins enough states. As soon as you start flipping states to a third party you can see how it closes off enough others to make it impossible."
Maybe. What would be more likely with a strong third-party candidate is they would win enough States that no one wins enough electoral votes and then we have a real mess. Then again, if someone could get on every state ballots and let's say Biden has a stroke. A strong candidate could pull all the blue states and maybe the purple as well.

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You're about a month too late - she's hated by the right wing now.

Mark Cuban is someone who I think could draw 10% in an election this weak. Would probably run as a moderate populist.

Charles Barkley! All of those Trumpers who love people who just say it like it is... let's put them to the test, lol.

Cuban was ho I thought of fist followed by The Rock

Popular non-politicians are popular because they are non-politicians.

As soon as they put a D or an R next to their name, they lose that appeal.

"Popular non-politicians are popular because they are non-politicians.

As soon as they put a D or an R next to their name, they lose that appeal."

Right, which is why we are talking about someone not putting the R or D beside their name.

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To the surprise of no one, the Old-Ass Mutant Dementia Turtle is endorsing Trump.

pic.twitter.com/jrSihH0Vd2

— Team Mitch (Text MITCH to 47137) (@Team_Mitch) March 6, 2024

I think it's the right election but the wrong electorate, and that electorate is why we have these nominees in the first place. Basically the same malfunctions that have us picking poor candidates are the ones that would keep us from latching on to any third-party potential.

"I think it's the right election but the wrong electorate, and that electorate is why we have these nominees in the first place. Basically the same malfunctions that have us picking poor candidates are the ones that would keep us from latching on to any third-party potential."

You are probably not wrong. That is why I was wondering even more about the platform a third-party or independent candidate could even have to have any real success. I think "I'm not them" can only go so far. A moderate stance could probably pull some Dems and the anti-Trump Republicans, but that wouldn't be near enough. I just can't think of what it would take to chip away from Trump's baked in 35-40% that wouldn't knock out more voters from the moderates than it would gain.

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I did a little mental math, what I was working out led to an interesting question that I'll pose to you (yes I'm targeting you because of geography since I'm exponentially more familiar with that 35-40 percent in Georgia than I am in other states)

Here's my question for ya: let's stipulate that 35-40 percent. I wonder how many of those have been consistent (R) voters prior to 2002 (the gubernatorial flip that signalled two decades of strong (R) electoral performances)? My hunch is that it's a fairly low number.

Here's why that question matters, where my thinking kinda went.

The most successful option for a 3rd party right now?
Might be Trump sans the (R)

Backup QB syndrome?

Jon, just based on what I have observed, I don't feel like many of his most die-hard supporters were even politically active until 2016. I doubt many would have even considered themselves Republican before Trump. Trump gained the Republican party members while losing the party members as well. You are not wrong he would probably be the highest vote-getter of any independent if he had left the party after 2020.

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Yeah this guy is a disaster-a host interviewed him for her radio show, and he was shockingly bad with his answers for someone who already held a high position in North Carolina.


https://twitter.com/TaraServatius/st...06184717447351

From the point of logistics, that someone would have to be well underway with the work to get their name on state ballots for November, due to the different rules for independent candidates to get on those ballots: Filing deadlines for independent presidential candidates, 2024 - Ballotpedia

It’ll need to be someone independently wealthy (e.g. Ross Perot like), is willing to spend his own money (what’s $5B anyway), is not beholden to Dems or Reps.

Closest I can think of is Bloomberg. He’s swapped parties before. Anti-Trump but calmed down his rhetoric when faced with the possibility of Trump winning.

Trump probably wins the most states, but he can't get to a majority of electoral votes IMO. I think he could carry a lot of low population states, but the split in GOP/Trump votes is going to give Dems the midwest, AZ, maybe GA and NV. Trump vs. GOPer vs. Biden would get Trump a lot of votes, but not close to enough electors.

I didn't call a win, I just said "most successful 3rd party option atm"

I don't believe he's gonna win with the (R) this time, so I sure as hell ain't going out on any limb with him as an (I)

I do think that Trump would be the most successful independent candidate if he ran that way.

In a Trump (I), Biden (D), Haley (R) race, Haley gets the least votes, right?

That would be my prediction. With the big exception that Trump is super lazy and may not actually be on many state ballots.

But this is the new playbook for the party, right? Folks like Boebert, MTG, etc, who get fame by yelling loudly, and then try and jump on that fame for a buck at the expense of governing. He was a nobody, made a big speech about gun rights or something, and then everyone swarmed him to run for under-the-radar positions. I'm surprised that couple that pulled a gun on people walking by their house in St. Louis aren't in the governor's mansion yet.

Um, who the fuck is Boebert? Is that the little b that was drinking and smoking in a common area with other people watching a show.

You are completely jacked if your world view is that the average, or below average Republican voter is like that. And I see, and have seen, the average Republican voter on a daily basis. For many years.

She may not be the average Republican voter (though I'd say there are probably a lot of vocal voters in her mold), but I don't know that she's far from the typical Republican congressperson.

(edit: Boebert just got a nice puff piece about her in the NYT, too)

That's what his supporters are for in-between their court dates.

This sums it up nicely.

Politician 1: the Supreme Court is 9 space iguanas in masks, only landed gentry can vote, left handed minorities count as 3/5ths of a human, dream president is Errol from True Detective & seat belts are banned

Politician 2: I like tax cuts & babies.

GOP voters: NO BRAINER, #1

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) March 7, 2024

I've seen both MAGA folks and Dem folks sharing this on facebook.

Everyone thinks that the other side is the evil empire.

I spent an hour yesterday playing "Tie Fighter" destroying rebel scum.

Just sayin.

Who they are electing as their leaders would indicate otherwise.

Oh yeah, certainly.

Or at least I sure as fuck would hope so.

Dark Forces Remaster up next?

Yup. Whatever side you are on, the other side is oppressive evil that needs to be stopped.

Nah. There's a lot more blame to go around than that. This forum has provided ample evidence.

When you had to wear a mask at Subway 3 years ago.

Assuming Trump is on all the ballots, I'd say yes. I think she'd sit somewhere around 15% at best.

I was responding to someone answering eating Broccoli soup. Can’t find the thread. The soup is a bit cold and I can’t find the response; however,this is my response:

“I think she'd sit somewhere around 15% at best.[/quote]
This kind of nonsense makes me want to vote Trump. Most likely won’t vote as it would be disingenuous.

You seem like you may want Numbers, not actual Huamns perhaps.”

That is all.

Well, now I can’t remember how to delete. Dang it.

Joe sounding pretty damn solid so far

dola- even Mike Johnson looks impressed

line of the night is going to be to the justices "you're about to realize how much electoral and political power women have"

lol. Biden calling out the republicans who tout the infrastructure money that they voted against.

MTG using the UGA student as a political pawn is beyond gross.

Sounds familiar.

some dude was just screaming and looked like he was removed. Anyone know what that was about?