You're not paranoid, you are just mistaken, nobody is out to get you.






Note to self- tell members of the "Out to Get Hoopsguy" group when our next meeting is. Must tell Abe, Alan, Lathum, ntndeacon, Martin D, Danny, Passacaglia, Jackal, EF, Telle, RendeR, Claphamsa, Autumn, dubb, saldana, DT, Chief Rum, RendeR's puppy, my son, the Penguins, etc.

If he knew you were going to be cleared, wouldn't it make more sense for him to "trust" you?

Render's puppy is in on it as well? Wow, I didn't realize it ran that deep.

dubb got lathumed

That what ran that deep, what are you talking about. Alan's said too much already.

I have to admit, having several good runs lately, I don't feel nearly as stressed out as usual about possibly getting voted out early. I hate to say that but hey, this just may be my time.

You looked at the wrong code. It should be:

International indeed. The plot is bigger than we expected.

You are way too easy about getting lynched. I'm starting to think that you're the duke. Or maybe the brutal. I dunno. But something's not sitting well with me.

Big girls need love too.

Hey Telle, I'm not the duke nor am I a wolf of any kind, frankly, I fought it hard last night. If I do it again, it's just a repeat.

Looking back at what's been posted, I agree with Alan's reasoning from post 1071 - can't see a good reason why the wolves would have used the Criticizer on EagleFan if he isn't a wolf.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

I could be wrong about this, but I don't have a case to justify voting for hoops, and I'm not sure enough that Lathum's vote is both voluntary and for the benefit of the village (although it could easily be one or the other) to vote for PB.

There are other people I have suspicions about who aren't involved in today's 3-way lynch vote, but there's no point in wasting a vote trying to bring someone else into the picture when there's very little chance of the lynch going outside the current three candidates.

Feel free to discuss suspicions, Martin.

As of post #1113:

5 - PurdueBrad - Latham (790), hoopsguy (822), Telle (1020), Abe (1045), The Jackal (1050)
6 - EagleFan - Alan T (951), Autumn (969), DaddyTorgo (971), dubb (1014), saldana (1080), MartinD (1112)
3 - hoopsguy - Barkeep (985), Passacaglia (1016), PurdueBrad (1017)

Who hasn't voted yet?

Claphamsa, EagleFan, PackerFanatic, Poli, Lerriuqs, Chief Rum

But then I would have to see that the game had a deleted post every time I opened the forum. And like the telltale heart, the guilt, it would be too much.

And EF can't vote, so we've got five.

Man I start the voting on a guy and STILL can't get invited to the damn meeting.

Ok after reading things over, I see little reason not to vote for PB. Lathum has been as clear as he can be with-in the rules that he believes PB is a wolf, or bad, or something evil. If it were a forced play it seems to me that he'd have a different "feel" about things. I still like hoops as an alternative to PB, I just don't see the need for one after further reflection.

Unvote hoops
Vote PB

Here I was happy that you and Lerriuqs did not seem to be part of the club.

And you ask why you didn't get an invite to the meeting? :)

VOTE EAGLEFAN

I am not sure what to think about the whole PB/Lathum situation...so I am just steering clear.

Take solace that I have moved my vote away from you.

I never once said it was optimal for day 2. Lathum pointed out it wasn't optimal and I never disagreed. Quit putting words in my mouth.

I'm likely heading out in a few minutes and won't be back until after the deadline. Good luck in tonight's vote. Hope whatever way it goes, it ends up good for us.

So, why are you voting EagleFan?

Fixed.

What a wolfish thing to say. Just who is this us? Hmm? Hmm?

See that's why I think it makes sense to get to the bottom of it. And the easiest way to do that is to lynch PB. I don't like the idea of having lingering issues like this.

This too is a good point. Not lynching PB or Lathum today likely means the issue reappears tomorrow.

Love the Poe reference.

Unless the person who is lynched ends up being a wolf.

Which in a Lathum-PB run-off, best I can tell, you aren't getting.

I disagree. I think Lathum/PB remains an issue even if EF or Hoops shows up a wolf. For instance if EF shows up wolf then perhaps it says something about Lathum. And with hoops, his being pulled from a completely different direction doesn't mitigate Lathum/PB being a wolf.

Give me time, my game's still young...:D

VOTE PB

I want to see where this Lathum PB thing goes...

About this Lathum/PB issue. Lathum has painted a picture here where he wants PB lynched b/c he has been lead to believe by his role that PB is a wolf. Lathum also supports an EF lynch even though his role says PB is a wolf. Lathum also has painted a picture where even though his role says PB is a wolf, that if PB isn't a wolf he is in the clear. Am I missing the part where this is supposed to make sense?

I'm likely out until close to deadline. Good luck.

And for the last time, [Channels Nixon] I am not a wolf[/ends Nixon].

I would vote Lathum right now if it wouldn't be throwing my vote away, the way he has presented this play just makes no sense to me at all.

Nope. Something's rotten in the mental institution - and it's not just the milk.

Dubb, I think you have it covered.

If PB is not a wolf, I expect that there are going to be pretty pointed questions coming Lathum's way. This is not me trying to set something up, just recognizing how it will likely go down.

If PB isn't a wolf and Lathum isn't "revealed" to be good like he said he's sure he will be, he will most certainly be a heavy lynch target.

Well I'm outta here folks. Not sure if I'll have a chance to get on before deadline or not. Kinda depends on whether the little ones will happily watch cartoons or whether they'll demand more of my attention.

Guys, I have flipped my stance (and have internet at my meeting!). Don't vote for Lathum, I think it is a role problem, NOT a wolf problem. I'm not a threat to the wolves at this point that they would make this play. So I still don't think Lathum is a good choice.

Instead: Listen to whatever other options he puts out there and that may be your wolf.

:confused:

Was there a run of Lathum votes I missed? And how did you come to this conclusion?

So he comes in, drops that message and then leaves. Yea, because that wasn't a post that needed explained or anything.

I will be on a date for much of this evening and may not be back until after lynch.

Yep, I'm kind of perplexed by how he would draw that conclusion as well.

But, my vote is already on PB so it isn't like I can vote for him twice.

What's with Abe and all his dates. You sure you have time for Werewolf, buddy? Never mind therapy.

Vote count?

I've got 7-7-2 EF/PB/Hoops.

Telle has a pretty recent count showing votes on the last page, I've got today's vote history log going below but it is a harder read.


790 - Lathum votes PB 1-0
810 - DT votes PB 2-0
822 - Hoops votes PB 3-0
823 - Clap votes PB 4-0
846 - Dubb votes PB 5-0
875 - Clap unvotes PB 4-0
951 - Alan votes EF 4-1 PB over EF
969 - Autumn votes EF 4-2 PB over EF
971 - DT unvotes PB votes EF 3-3 PB/EF
985 - BK votes Hoops 3-3-1 PB/EF over Hoops
1001 - Dubb unvotes PB 3-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1014 - Dubb votes EF 4-2-1 EF over PB over Hoops
1016 - Pass votes Hoops 4-2-2 EF over PB/Hoops
1017 - PB votes Hoops 4-3-2 EF over Hoops over PB
1020 - Telle votes PB 4-3-3 EF over Hoops/PB
1045 - Abe votes PB 4-4-3 EF/PB over Hoops
1047 - Jackal votes EF 5-4-3 EF over PB over Hoops
1050 - Jackal unvotes EF, votes PB 5-4-3 PB over EF over Hoops
1080 - Saldana votes EF 5-5-3 PB/EF over Hoops
1112 - MartinD votes EF 6-5-3 EF over PB over Hoops
1120 - BK unvotes Hoops, votes PB 6-6-2 EF/PB over Hoops
1123 - PF votes EF 7-6-2 EF over PB over Hoops
1137 - Lerriuqs votes PB 7-7-2 EF/PB over Hoops

I'm probably not going to be around much from here on out. Off to soccer practice (still can't believe I was talked into doing this) shortly.

It's summertime!

you posted a link to a game where you made a fake reveal that won the game for the wolves and said "read this if you want an example of optimal play"

still catching up but this is not necessaraly true. Unless there is more info available I probably don't vote PB tomorrow

no

no

no

no

show me where I said PB is a wolf and my role leads me to that?

Who's putting words in someones mouth now?

Checking in mid-meeting. I know there wasn't a run of votes. I originally called for Lathum votes after my lynch. I changed my mind. I think this is a dynamic of his role rather than a set-up, from him, anyway. I believe he likely was given a list of people and one IS actually a wolf. Be back shortly.

wow, I feel like CR at 3 AM

So, we have a showdown between PB and EF, right?

I am surprised at the EF run. I think some of you are neglecting some logic practice here, unless I am completely missing something.

The main point is the wolves' decision to criticize EF last night.

Those of you voting for EF (assumedly) are betting he's a wolf. So let's say you're right, and he is. Now put yourself in the wolves' position between the deadlines last night, trying to decide who to criticize.

The wolves just escaped with one of their wolf buddies, EF, scraping by in a close Day One vote. The other candidate, ntndeacon, came up good. What does that situation mean for EF, your wolf buddy? It will mean the following:

A. The village will want to put some meaning behind the Day One vote, which means testing EF's allegiance by lynch or seer.
B. So EF has a better than good shot at being scanned
C. Scanned or not, EF will almost certainly, without being cleared (awful hard to be cleared as a wolf, of course), be a candidate for lynch.

Considering all these, which would have been self-evident to the wolves last night, their option for criticism is either to deprive a villager of a vote or to deprive one of their own to attempt to garner trust. We know EF was criticized, and we're assuming he's a wolf. So we know the wolves are trying to buy fake trust for a wolf (EF), but at the cost of his vote.

So those of you figuring EF is a wolf are betting the wolves would knowingly deprive a fellow wolf of his vote on a day when he's likely to be the primary candidate for lynch. Does that really make sense to you?

It certainly doesn't to me. It would take several leaps of logic to go with the wolves criticizing a wolf EF on the day he is likely to be targeted for lynch. It's far more likely they targeted a villager likely to get votes to make it more likely he'll be lynched (and a wolf won't be).

Given PB was also the next likely candidate to get votes (even before Lathum's quick vote), it's even possible the decision to criticize EF was not only to make sure he goes down, but also to protect PB.

IMO, you guys are nuts (or wolves) if you're voting for EF right now, short of the seer popping up and screaming wolf.

And with that...

VOTE PURDUE BRAD

Zuh?? :p

That's it. Q words from now on.

I've got nothing else to do at this point.

unvote Hoops

vote EF

I don't hate this vote though just because Lathum did admit it was a decent play as well. Be back shortly.

lathum... should i vote EF?

part of me wants to vote for hoopsguy right now...this whole situation of EF being unable to vote and Lathum being compelled to vote for PB reeks of a master wolf pulling the strings behind the scenes...hoops, chief, and barkeep immediately spring to mind as where i should vote for, as they have pulled the wool over my eyes enough times before.

not saying that there arent plenty of others capable of fooling me, but they have all had the greatest success at it

OK, I've been working wth this stupid vote thing from yesterday on and off all afternoon and I think I've got it right now. Not sure how much it is going to factor into decisions today, but if so then here it is:

205 - Poli votes Lathum (1-0)
210 - Lathum votes Poli (1-1)
240 - Poli unvotes Lathum (1-0)
242 - Lathum unvotes Poli (0-0)
244 - Dubb votes Saldana (1-0)
251 - EF votes PB (1-1)
252 - Poli votes Abe (1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe
253 - Lerriuqs votes Pass (1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass
272 - PB votes Hoops (1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Hoops
273 - PB unvotes Hoops (1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass
284 - Pass votes Lerriuqs (1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs
304 - Saldana votes Dubb (1-1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/PB/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb
323 - EF unvotes PB, votes Hoops (1-1-1-1-1-1) Saldana/Abe/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops
326 - Lathum votes Abe (2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops
328 - Hoops votes EF (2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops/EF
329 - Jackal votes PB (2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe over Saldana/Pass/Lerriuqs/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB
333 - PF votes Lerriuqs (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Lerriuqs over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB
335 - Clap votes PF (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Lerriuqs over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/Hoops/EF/PB/PF
341 - Pass unvotes Lerriuqs, votes Hoops (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Hoops over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/EF/PB/Lerriuqs/PF
343 - PB votes EF (2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/Hoops/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Lerriuqs/PF
347 - Pass unvotes Hoops (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Lerriuqs/PF/Hoops
357 - PF unvotes Lerriuqs (2-2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/PF/Hoops
370 - Pass votes for NTN (2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PB/Hoops/PF/NTN
372 - EF unvotes Hoops, votes PB (2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF/PB over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF/NTN
374 - PF votes NTN (2-2-2-2-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF/PB/NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF
381 - PF unvotes PB, votes Lathum (2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) Abe/EF/NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum
396 - Lathum unvotes Abe, votes EF (3-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Saldana/Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
416 - Dubb unvotes Saldana, votes EF (4-2-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
420 - BK votes NTN (4-3-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
425 - Abe votes NTN (4-4-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF/NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
443 - Pass unvotes NTN, votes No Lynch (4-3-1-1-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over Pass/Dubb/PF/PB/Lathum/Abe
452 - EF unvotes Lathum, votes PB (4-3-2-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN over PB over Pass/Dubb/PF/Abe
455 - Autumn votes PB (4-3-3-1-1-1-1) EF over NTN/PB over Pass/Dubb/PF/Abe
457 - Telle votes Abe (4-3-3-2-1-1-1) EF over NTN/PB over Abe over Pass/Dubb/PF
530 - NTN votes PF (4-3-3-2-2-1-1) EF over NTN/PB over Abe/PF over Pass/Dubb
532 - Pass votes NTN (4-4-3-2-2-1-1) EF/NTN over PB over Abe/PF over Pass/Dubb
536 - PB unvotes EF, votes NTN (5-3-3-2-2-1-1) NTN over PB/EF over Abe/PF over Pass/Dubb
577 - Telle unvotes Abe, votes PB (5-4-3-2-1-1-1) NTN over PB over EF over PF over Pass/Dubb/Abe
581 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (4-4-3-2-1-1-1-1) PB/NTN over EF over PF over Pass/Dubb/Abe/Telle
595 - MartinD votes PB (5-4-3-2-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN over EF over over PF over Pass/Dubb/Abe/Telle
603 - NTN unvotes PF, votes PB (6-4-3-1-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN over EF over Pass/Dubb/Abe/Telle/PF
604 - Autumn unvotes PB, votes Telle (5-4-3-2-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN over EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/Abe/PF
605 - Chief votes EF (5-4-4-2-1-1-1-1) PB over NTN/EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/Abe/PF
668 - Poli unvotes Abe, votes Telle (5-4-4-3-1-1-1) PB over NTN/EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
669 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (5-5-4-2-1-1-1) PB/NTN over EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
679 - PB unvotes NTN, votes Telle (5-4-4-3-1-1-1) PB over EF/NTN over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
699 - Alan votes NTN (5-5-4-3-1-1-1) PB/NTN over EF over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
701 - NTN unvotes PB, votes Telle (5-4-4-4-1-1-1) NTN over EF/PB/Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
707 - NTN unvotes Telle, votes EF (5-5-4-3-1-1-1) NTN/EF over PB over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
711 - PB unvotes Telle, votes NTN (6-5-4-2-1-1-1) NTN over EF over PB over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF
713 - EF unvotes PB, votes NTN (7-5-3-2-1-1-1) NTN over EF over PB over Telle over Pass/Dubb/PF

don't make me do it, please, i can't, i won't i don't want to, no no no!!

stop stop stop stop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

up to you

if it was up to me i would vote dubb, then everyone would yell at me for throwing away a vote!

Quoted for the quaffing of the quadruped.

Saldana, best I can tell this is not your Star Wars game :) Hopefully we do a little better job of wolf hunting in this one than the villagers did in that game.

Seriously, I'm more or less discounting the "compelled vote" without more evidence. There are plenty of other potential explanations for Lathum's actions, many of them ending with PB as a wolf. Which has been my stance all day.

Whoever pointed out the power of blocked votes (a mechanic that is definitely in the game, per the moderator post this morning) rising as we get fewer villagers was exactly right. The idea that we would get to a one vote decision today where EF's inability to defend himself would come into play is pretty hard to fathom with 20 players. Even if that is exactly where we are at this moment. Still, almost two hours until deadline.

well thats who I would advise you to vote, but I don't think thats an option today

So can someone explain to me why the wolves would criticize EF if he's a wolf?

the consensus is that they did it to gain trust for EF since he was on the block

for exactly the reason you are illustrating....we would instantly assume that the person who was criticized is a villager, much like we assumed that everyone that came down to hades was a villager...right up until the point in time when the wolves sent one of the own down...it put him right in the middle of the COT.

I believe the argument is that he was obviously potentially on the chopping block today - so to try to get attention away from him, they criticize one of their own, hopefully giving the impression that they're criticizing a villager instead.

But at the cost of one of the four votes (assuming four wolves) they can control in a showdown vote involving a wolf? And the only one that can be made without suspicion, too. And with EF liekly to be scanned that night anyway?

Really, that's what you guys are going with?

I think he meant when he turns up good look elsewhere than Lathum.

I question the quizzical quandary of the quagmire we're in.

Que nous.

Quickly I question the quest for typing in q's.

I'm not sure why you conceive this as such a perplexing wolf play.

i agree that the likelyhood of a missing self defense vote is very slim, but the converse of that is also very true- with 20 people in the game, the likelyhood that the wolves would need his vote today in order to save himself or another wolf is very slim, so it is the perfect time to try to buy trust without losing the ability to influence the vote.

Poli = quiet, quirky, quick to quarrel?

We don't know if EF was scanned last night or tonight, and to press the seer into revealing early when there's a wolf involved in a day 1 showdown is a sensible wolf play.

But we've counteracted that need to reveal if EF is in fact a wolf.

the fact that i needed to point the converse of his logic out to him frightens me...he typically thinks over his theories and finds his own holes in them much more completely

unvote eaglefan
vote hoopsguy

I wouldn't mind if hoops re-enters the voting, I feel like three-way races in a game with so many people left would be better for vote analysis.

Well, I'm going to be very disappointed if I re-enter the voting and I'm not around to argue after being here all day. I'm out of here in about five minutes.

Occam's Razor for one. Two, they could build a case against a non-wolf (let's say PB for argument's sake) and take away that person's vote. Three, a likely seer scan would have made the move entirely irrelevant. Four, as I already noted, they remove the one vote they can count on to be used without suspicion (EF's own) later on in the game.

Not saying no way the wolves would do this, I am saying it's the low percentage play, and by a good deal. IMO, we should be playing the odds this early in the game, and not go for longer shots.

Yeah that would be unfortunate. Honestly I don't see things moving that way at this point.. we kind of need to learn something about PB or EF.

Vote Purduebrad

To qualify: I question the quibbling, but I have no qualms in keeping a vote either close or tied. Personally, I had hoped to see more quizzing of Telle.

Q's are both quirky, quiet, and quarrelsome. I fear I am in a quagmire here.