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Look at the last three Vice Presidents: Dan Quayle, Al Gore and Dick Cheney. During the campaign, these guys were given marching orders to trash the presidential candidate of the opposing party. This seems to be a recipe for success, as much as some try to downplay the need for negative campaigning. Biden fits this role perfectly. |
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It's the weekend, there's jack shit else going on that has a shot at pulling viewers/listeners/readers. And it's no accident that Obama timed the impending announcement this way, it's an easy two day front pager if he does it tomorrow. I always think of it as a "Tawana Brawley story", which picked up momentum by being the lead on an extremely slow news weekend |
One thing about Biden that could be problematic. He was involved in a plagiarism issue that ended his 1988 campaign against Michael Dukakis. I don't know if that would have any traction if it was resurrected, but it was Biden's downfall in 1988.
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Well, that and a second mini-scandal regarding cheating at Syracuse law school. Neither one seems terribly "fresh" but let's not kid ourselves and suggest that they won't be bandied about. |
Hillary Clinton FTW!
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At least I can claim that Joe Biden and I lived in the same town at the same time.
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Interesting situation with the inTrade markets today:
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Link: Worthwhile Money » Fleeting opportunity in Dem VP market |
I'm amazed at the attention, and they way they are doing it, the media has in who is going to be Obama's VP. It's rather funny.
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I'd be happy with Biden as he was my man for the top job :)
That said, I love the media falling all over themselves, bitching about how this is awful and hurting the campaign. Frankly, no one else cares. They're at home, doing what they do on the weekend, be it seeing a movie, watching the Olympics, drinking, or whatever. But the media just feels so burned by this that they keep hammering away at Obama. Frankly, I think it's a pretty smart move- getting a little more media out of this than it would normally get and getting quite a few addresses to text for donations and vote reminders come Novemeber. SI |
In the end, you've got to go back 48 years to find an election where a vice presidential candidate had any influence on the general election. The reality is that it creates a buzz for a few days, but when people cast their ballots in November it doesn't have any real impact.
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That's why I think the real genius of this is the cell phone contacts for election day GOTV operations.
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I'm starting to think this is less and less true. I mean the mantra that the VP doesn't matter. In this day and age when everything can be tagged to a Presidential candidate as a negative, I think they are more and more important. It's a purely negative effect- I don't think a VP can directly win you an election but I think they can help you lose it. That said, as you said earlier- they indirectly play a role as hit man and that can very much help win/lose an election. SI |
Heh...now CNN's saying that it's Biden.
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Sources: Obama picks Joe Biden as VP candidate - CNN.com
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I don't expect McCain to announce his VP until after the Democratic convention.
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Of course not. It will be a big story when he does but why fight the news cycle when he can have it all to himself the next week and then ride that wave to the convention and get wall-to-wall good coverage. Plus, having the later convention also tends to help in the polls so all that adds up to a nice bump for McCain and he won't try to spoil that. SI |
The Person who can play Echoes Wins. Otherwise I'm am voting against every incubative party.
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Pretty surprised at the selection by Biden. Would he have made this same selection a month ago when his polling numbers were much better? It feels like a safe decision to avoid losing the core Democratic voters, especially in New England where New Hampshire has suddenly become a toss-up, but I'm not sure that it helps him at all with independents or moderate Republicans.
The biggest concern has to be keeping Biden's mouth in check. He's well known for being a quote machine for all the wrong reasons. |
I'm not surprised. He needed to distance himself from Hilary, restore some eroded confidence in his campaign and somebody who can talk bad about McCain while he keeps his suit clean. Good pick.
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I don't know anything about Biden, but I have to admit, when I read "Hillary wasn't on the short-list", I had to give Obama some props for that!
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+1 Apparently she never was but they kept up the pretense to not totally piss off her hardcores. I wonder if they are a lost cause (the 50% that won't vote for Obama), not only because of lack of VP interest but of what little help Obama has provided in paying off her massive debts? |
Biden was Obama's best choice. Biden has been in the senate for 35 years, he's an irish catholic, and he has a life story that people can relate to. He's straight to the point and has the credibility to attack McCain on McCain's biggest strength, foreign policy. Biden was Obama's best choice.
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and Biden thinks Obama talks clearly and articulately. |
Obama-Biden
Osama Bin-Laden |
I think McCain is going to waltz to the presidency.
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You forgot that Obama is also clean. And that you can't enter a 7-11 to get a donut without seeing an Indian. |
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He also said Obama was not ready to be President. McCain already has an ad out that captures him standing by that statement. Biden was also accused of plagarizing a speech in 1988. |
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I've seen that mentioned several places already. Certainly not the best of name combinations given the circumstances |
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FWIW, I'm sure that the Republican VP will have likely said a few unkind things about his running mate. The concern with Biden is less what he has said and more worry about what he has yet to say in the coming months. |
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I thought that McCain ad was pretty weak. My guess is they aren't actually running it anywhere and just used it as free air time from the cable networks. I guess it at least keeps McCain in the discussion. |
Two good quotes from Republican Senators. The Lugar one surprises me a bit.
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Hagel Quote:
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I agree, but I think you have to look at the good things Biden can bring which I mentioned. Look at it objectively and not just as a Republican hack. Biden does have a big mouth and he may say something stupid and he may not. I'm sure Obama has weighed the risks and rewards. The article Bucc posted does a good job of outlining the good and bad with Biden. I never said that Biden was a good choice, just that he was Obama's best choice. Who else is out there that can go after McCain on foreign policy? Jim Webb and who else? |
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That's not going to be that big of a deal. A classic example is the 1980 republican primary, where George H. W. Bush trashed Ronald Reagan's economic policy, referring to it as "Voodoo Economics". Guess who Reagan picked as his VP? |
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Don't forget to add a quote from Republican Senator John McCain. |
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What was 'Republican hack' about my comment? There's not a person that pays attention to politics who doesn't know about Biden's mouth. There's nothing partisan about that comment. Even the Democrats know that. I disagree that Biden was his best choice. Obama needed to pick something, anything different. Instead, we got a senator from New England. That didn't appeal to the middle last election and it's not going to this time. If anything, the selection of Biden brings the possibility into play that Obama becomes a campaign M.C. of sorts to draw the crowd while the true debating occurs between McCain and Biden. Biden, for better or worse, is that kind of an overshadowing presence. |
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There's nothing shocking about those two comments from those two senators. |
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Biden was born in PA and is a Senator from DE, where does the New England part comes in? |
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Much like the East Coast folks somehow consider Ohio and Michigan part of the Midwest, anyone west of the Mississippi considers anything north of Washington D.C. part of New England. Having lived in Baltimore, I certainly understand that no one south of New York likes to be lumped into New England, but that's what happens. |
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I agree with this, although I don't think its a big deal. Its not Clinton, so its not a bad choice. |
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Ummm...no. |
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If you don't have that directional dyslexia, than your smarter than most of the population. I didn't say I agreed with it, but it does happen relatively often. |
I just read this comment at syracuse.com
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Not really knowing much about Biden, are these true? |
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Yeah, probably, since I did get a Masters degree in regional geography and did a study on people's perception of where the "Midwest" is. But I had not heard of the calling all of the Northeast "New England", even from anyone out here in the West. |
I constantly hear educated people describe New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and even Maryland as "New England."
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"Midwest" is an informal term, but since when are Ohio and Michigan not considered to be a part of it? Even the US Census considers them to be in the midwest. Midwestern United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia "New England" very specifically refers to 6 states. I've never heard anyone call New York (or PA, or NJ) "New England". |
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He voted for the war initially, but as with other Democrats, he has since made statements along the lines of regretting the vote because the war was sold as something it turned out not to be. on gun control, ontheissues.org's VoteMatch profile on Senator Biden indicates that he's pretty heavily *in favor* of gun control, rather than the opposite. On the death penalty, he seems to be in favor of capital punishment - the Biden Law of 2004 created a handful of new capital offenses. Including, interestingly, one that would apply to those who kill by acts of terrorism or weapons of mass destruction. |
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That Wiki entry is a perfect example. It shows ND, SD, NE, KS, and MO all as possibly not being part of the Midwest. Most people in those states would be shocked to hear that and would be even more shocked to hear OH and MI are definitely midwest states. In that sense, it's no different than many's perception of 'New England'. There's a whole lot of people that would have no problem putting MD, PA, NY, NJ and DE in that category, but I know from living in MD that people in that state will try to distance themselves from that association as much as they can. Point being, whether you say 'East Coast' or 'New England', the vast majority of the states would view Biden as very similar candidates, whether you can prove otherwise or not by tearing apart their individual policy beliefs. |
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I have actually known New Yorkers with college degrees who insisted to me that New York was part of New England. |
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I have never heard anyone refer Maryland, New Jersey, or New York (the state I live in) as part of New England. If anything, we are in the Mid-Atlantic region, and Maryland could be part of the South. |
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I'm not one of them. :) Of course, a lot people think that New York is New York City. It seems like they forget that we have that this huge piece of land northeast of the city where other New Yorkers live. |
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I've lived in Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut and Maine and I have never heard anyone, in any of those states, refer to any state south of Connecticut as being a New England state. New York is definitely not a part of New England and Delaware, Pennsylvania and Maryland are Mid-Atlantic states. |
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Exactly. People in those states are quick to correct any association with New England. They don't want to be considered as any part of that region. |
we were talking about this last night at dinner - I don't think McCain really has any good choices for a VP candidate - and I think a lot of his potential choices are staying far away and don't necessarily want the job
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Yeah, pretty much anybody that McCain picks will be a bad pick. I don't think either candidate had a good choice though, honestly. Joe Biden's pretty weak if you think about it prior to the pick actually being made. Now, of course, it's suddenly pure genius, but that's just because Obama is untouchable. |
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eh, I don't think biden is a weak pick. He's got MAJOR foreign policy experience, so that counters what the Repubs would say about that (given he could have been Secretary of State and still used that, but no worries), and he also is a vet, so that will counter McSame's incessant babbling about that. |
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Its weak in the sense that Biden doesn't really have a lot of appeal. I read it as a safe pick. The "risk" that people are talking about, that Biden has a big mouth - really, who cares, lots of veeps have had mouths and said dumb things, I'm not sure its ever hurt a campaign. So he's a guy with not much downside, but I have a hard time seeing that he brings a lot to the table. I fully expect McCain to pick a woman now. Any woman - Farrah Whitworth-Rahn would be a fine pick. |
if McCain picks a woman does that imply that he's going to cheat on his wife with her? since he has a history of that...
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Depends on if its a hot chick or not. McCain only bangs the finest foxes. |
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See. Untouchable. |
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Huh? It has more to do with having their own region, the Mid-Atlantic region, than immediately disassociating themselves from New England. There's really no argument about wanting or not wanting to be considered part of a specific geographical region. It simply is: those states are Mid-Atlantic states. |
Interesting choices for McCain:
 OR  But he will choose:  In the end, I'm not sure the VP matters that much. If Bush can get elected with Quayle and Carter with Mondale, I can't see either of these choices hurting Obama or McCain any worse. The only bad choice for McCain would be Liebermann, outside of that I don't see it being a big issue. Seems to me as the choice is Obama or "the guy running against Obama". If enough people like and trust Obama, he will win - independent of what people think about the McCain ticket. |
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Mizzou B-ball fan is just trying to take a little cheap shot for some reason. But ya, they correct people because anyone that says anything to the contrary is a moron. Like if someone referred to Puerto Rico as a "State", or as Alaska as "part of Russia". It's just wrong, it's not like "midwest" or "northeast" where there's no clear defining line. |
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Looks like we have to change the name of the thread. |
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Historically, the VP doesn't seem to really matter in terms of election results, and I don't think the VP really matters all that much after the election in a practical sense, but I don't know if all the old rules apply anymore, in this era of 24/7 news coverage outside the VP candidates' houses. The media has decided the VP choice is more important than ever this year, and that might have an impact on the voters. For entertainment value, I'm rooting for Sarah Palin, though that's never going to happen. I'd definitely watch in the VP debate though. In a quiet room. Alone. With a glass of wine. |
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It's seems like TMZ is running all of the election media coverage this year. |
McCain CANNOT pick Romney.
1) he's a mormon - the religious-right already has a hard time stomaching mccain as it is - let alone with a MORMON as a running mate 2) he's a MUCH better speaker, and looks much more fit and presidential than McCain - he'd make McCain look and sound comical 3) personally I think Romney has wayyyyyy too much political-baggage from his time as governor of MA (how the fuck did this state ever elect him anyways??) - he's a known flip-flopper. He'll say two different things in front of different crowds - on the national stage this will be so much more noticeable I think Romney's best bet is to wait 4 years and try it again as the headliner |
Pawlenty is the guy for McCain. Younger than Biden, less well known and less likely to make waves with the right wing of the GOP. Plus, being in Minnesota makes it even more worthwhile, to get the home state bump of him being there, too.
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Again, I wouldn't prefer Romney if I were McCain - I would go for the potential home run (or strikeout) with Jindal or Palin. IMO, McCain could really siphon off some of the Hillary vote by going with Palin. McCain and Hillary are very similar on many issues and adding Palin might be enough to sway the unhappy Hillary democrat voters. But, Romney is the *safe* choice and that's the way most people go at this stage. |
FWIW when I was just up in Alaska there was a huge broohaha about her abuse of power or something. It was all over the press until the other guy, the Senator stole the show by being indicted. Their airport is named after him BTW.
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I dunno if Romney really helps in Michigan. During the primaries wasn't there a lot of grumbling from people in Michigan about him claiming to "be from there" despite the fact that he was essentially a carpet-bagger?
and I don't think biden is a better speaker or looks more presidential than obama (well okay maybe he looks a little more presidential, but he's not a better speaker). Romney vs. McCain in speaking is like night and day. Romney's about 1000x times a better speaker. If you think Biden is a better speaker than Obama, okay, but there's no way he is a better speaker than Obama to the degree that Romney is better than McCain. McCain can't even read his speeches off the teleprompter, and is a bumbling fool in debates. |
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I believe that one of her staffers (according to reports, the staffer admitted that Palin had no knowledge or involvement) was responsible for the abuse of power. I really like Palin a lot. She's just isn't being mentioned really. |
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It is Massachusetts. They seem to elect based on pedigree and old-money. It does seem like the current governor, Patrick, isn't getting a lot more love. |
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Wasn't it involving Palin's sister and a...hang on: Palin's abuse of power | BLOGS FOR JOHN McCAIN Quote:
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Ok so the husband of her younger sister files for divorce then he is let go from his position, and abruptly so, yet she had no knowledge at all? Hmmm, that pig stinks like a pig if you ask me. Unless of course the younger sister was from a different mother and father, they dont talk to eachother and perhaps live in separate states... nope, nope and nope BTW, I like her a lot too, with those sexy glasses on and her business suit, I do. |
That's what I was alluding to earlier. If you believe that a VP should help bring his/her state into play, there's no way a Republican would pick Minnesota or Massachusetts. I do realize that Minnesota is now considered a toss-up but after its presidential voting record the past 40 years, I wouldn't touch it.
McCain has the same tough choice for VP as Obama. Picking Biden would solidify the alientation of the anti-Obama Clinton supporters (particularly in the way Obama wanted nothing to do with them). McCain has the same problem with the neo-conservative bloc (particularly with loudmouths like Rush saying it's a do-or-die choice). |
These Rasmussen numbers stolen from 538 make Biden look like a good choice.
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I was just reporting what I read. |
IMO, Bayh would have gone with Obama's message of "change" and youth as he's been a very independent senator. Biden was the safe choice who could be a better attack dog (which may be a better choice). McCain has the same options with Palin/Jinal vs. Romney. The difference is I think McCain has more to gain from a big splash VP and less to lose.
I think it's going to be a tough sell for Obama to say he's there for change and to bring people together and then choose one of the more partisan senators who's been in Washington for 35 years as a running mate. Still, this whole thing is window dressing. In the end, it's going to come down to whether people in Florida, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Penn and Wisconsin feel good with Obama as the president. If a majority does, he wins. If they don't, McCain will win. Outside of an enormous gaff or complete senior meltdown, what McCain does probably won't matter down the stretch (unless it's attacking Obama). |
After this non-stop barrage of "we don't need four more years of Bush/McCain", poor Dick Cheney wants his critics back.
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Obama's "Change You Can Believe In" only means change away from Bush/Cheney and then saying McCain/? = Bush/Cheney. Not knowing, I checked McCain's website to see what his slogan is and I see it's "Country First" (is that right?). What the hell does that supposed to mean? |
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re: Midwest (not just this reference but a couple more down the thread) -- I think there is a growing tendency to break the Midwest down into sort of a heartland version (Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska) and an upper version (Michigan, the Dakotas, Minnesota). Personally I've never quite settled on what the hell to do with Ohio but there's nothing other than pure geography than would ever have me call it Midwest. As for the New England thing, (checks map to be sure), that also happens east of the Mississippi too. Although I probably most frequently just call it all Northeast and consider New England a subset of that broader term. And New York is the most common (mis)application of it I think. And re:Maryland (somewhere down the thread) -- I don't believe there's many people on either side of the Mason Dixon line who considers it Southern at this point. I'd be shocked if Marylanders would approve of that and equally shocked at finding many Southrons who would either. |
Do you guys think that this effectively buries the Clintons? It doesn't sound like she (and definitely he) would have any place in an Obama administration?
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Bayh is better for message, but obviously, message won't get him the presidency. Things won't really change until some more of you old people die off. |
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I hope so. I always hated that "first black president" B.S. |
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That's what they'll be saying about you, esp. since you are already over 30. :) |
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If Obama wins the election, yes. If he loses the election, no. |
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I'd have a tough time believing she'd take one at this point ... although as for them being "buried" I'd say it's still premature to count them as having a stake through their hearts just yet. After all, I have to think they're in a whole different position if Obama loses. |
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I think that if Obama loses the election Clinton will be very hurt if the feeling is that she or Bill did not get behind the ticket enough. The dem blogosphere is already fairly on that point of view as it is. |
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I would be surprised by that. That's what people are saying NOW, but if Obama actually loses, the interpretation will instead be "we nominated the wrong person." Or maybe not, lots of Democrats still don't realize how bad a choice Kerry was. They ask "what's wrong with Kansas." |
I'm going to step in here for a second and say I actually liked what I saw of Biden from the early debates, and I might actually end up voting Obama because of this selection.
I've been a long time repub. and most recently on the libertarian side. I just hope these idiots don't hike up taxes and put in more stupid social programs for people that don't deserve them... |
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I had originally hoped (although I knew it was a longshot) that biden would get the top of the ticket - I really like him, so I was enthused by this news. |
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Kerry was always a wooden candidate and my recollection is that he was more "guy who could beat Bush" than someone that people were particularly excited about. I truly think Obama is the best candidate the Dems have this time around and is the best they've had since Bill -- much better than Hillary. But that's just my gut. My choices are rarely those of the majority. :) |
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I was supporting Bill Richardson during the Democratic primary. He and Joe Biden were the only two guys I would have voted for president, and I made up my mind to vote for McCain once it got narrowed down to Obama and Clinton. |
They didn't waste any time getting this ad out:
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I really think this hurts Obama in the long run. If his message is all about change, why is he looking more and more like any other liberal candidate? I think Bayh would have been a much better choice if he really wanted to appeal to the middle and go with the whole youth, change, etc. Biden is exactly the type of VP choice I would have avoided if I was him.
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You're not kidding. I read online this morning that the news broke around 1:00 AM and the McCain camp released this ad at around 1:35 AM. I'm sure this ad was in the can for weeks in preparation for a Biden nod but still, it just goes to show how quickly campaigns move these days. |
Mole in the Obama campaign??!! :eek:
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No, the Mole is right here on FOFC. Wrong thread, though. :D |
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