Ok hoops, I'm curious to know your thoughts on why you and AE are both still alive at this point then. I know it must be a pain in the ass always be a suspect no matter what, but I'm curious. For example, McKerney last night instead of either one of you.

Updated votes through 1099:
Taz - Ardent (1064), Taz (1066), Stkelly (1070), KWhit (1071)
Ardent - Desnudo (1081), King (1084), Penny (1085)
Hoops - Gram (1092)

So, if true, why are you voting for yourself again?

If you have AE as high on your trust list as you say, I would think you would have followed his lead and voted for Taz.

In trying to catch up, I've spent a lot of time on the barkeep/hoops postings, as you might imagine. I'd need to hear from barkeep to make sure (maybe after the game), but it certainly seemed to me after reading that after the initial debate that they really weren't sold on the other being bad......but the situation might help keep them both off the sith's list for the time being. And of course, knowing now that I/barkeep am/was a regular Jedi makes their exchanges read differently than it did while I was casually following along.

I'm not sold completely on hoops, but there are others that seem more worrisome to me. Tanglewood is way up there for me. I also don't know how you can have AE on your trusted list, but I guess that depends on how you view the mind control possibility -- I'm looking at the "simple" game described at the beginning and have doubts about it.

I do agree with most of the rest of your "good" list, with the exception of yourself, who I would have neutral/leaning bad right now. No offense.

Yes, it is possible. Although you are wrong about sparing Qwik, making it a tie spared me as I was the vote leader. The problem I have with a Jedi using it, is that they had to be sure that I was a Jedi. If I were in that position I would have to be positive on my ID of someone.

Desnudo, I don't think that there are more than two Sith. If that is the case, then they could have picked up by the end of Day 2 that Barkeep and I were likely to spar - he said as much prior to the night kill. As each day has gone on, there has been more heat on me just for being alive. So why would they bother taking me out if the remaining Jedi are more likely to do it for them the next day?

I'm glad I haven't been voted off the island yet because I would prefer to make the Sith have to do it themselves.

I don't know if this is their logic, but I've been working with this assumption in terms of their night kills for a couple of days now.

In terms of Ardent, I think they set him up last night with the "jedi mind trick" vote switch to create heat on him today. There is absolutely no reason to have killed him last night after taking this action against him during the Day phase.

Updated votes through 1099:
Ardent - Desnudo (1081), King (1084), Penny (1085)


I'm starting to think Desnudo is on the Sith side as well and this may fit well with why Barkeep/Path, hoops, and myself are still alive. I could see Desnudo pulling the strings on this one.

I'm pulling the wool over your eyes, heh. You need to lay off the juice.

At this point I want to keep Ardent alive another day. So I'll put my vote where I think it is most likely to be useful, rather than pursuing KWhit. I have much more confidence in Ardent as Jedi (90%) than as KWhit being Sith (35%).

VOTE TAZ

You're looking at this the wrong way, then. With sabers possibly representing roles, we've had a number of different colors.

Dubb's role, whatever it is, doesn't make this game simple to me either.

Compound that with the fact that I wanted to vote Qwikshot just 2 minutes before the deadline...when isn't it obvious I've wanted Taz gone for two days now...means this is NOT a simple game.

Welcome to my circle.

I think you are the one that needs to lay off the juice. I think you are way off base with Taz. And I think there's a very good chance you are pulling the wool over my eyes.

If I were the Sith and the three of you were Jedi, believe me when I say that you would have been gone long ago. I learned my lesson with hoops in your Survivor game.

Depends on who they're trying to spare.

I thought I remembered AE switching his vote from Qwik to you, which is why I say to spare Qwik (or both).

But as I say, it depends on what the Jedi are trying to accomplish, and *which* of you they're certain of.

You have that reversed.

I don't know. I've been hoping that my actions will cause a clear divergence. That if I were to die and revealed for as a Jedi, the remaining should be able to get a read on the Sith.

I think you need to take your head out of...well, you know. I'm not pulling the wool over anyone's eyes. I originally tried to stay quiet in this game and was PULLED IN BY DUBB, a bad guy.

If you think I'm a bad guy, well, you need to go see a shrink.

Entirely possible. I was up until 2:30 last night and had to be up at 7:00 to deliver newspapers at school. I don't sleep well during the day, so I can't even take a nap. :(

Apologies if I had it backwards. I'm totally scatterbrained today.

Yep, AE had his vote for me and then switched to Qwik.

I think that's a fair point. The last 10 or so posts have been very interesting and are having some effect on my feelings in my previous post. It seems I have to have a small timeframe of thinking "out loud" when coming into the middle of a game..... :)

Straight up, how certain are you of Taz?

Taz said a magic word earlier that has me...thinking. Maybe I ran into a jedi on my way to the galley instead of a Sith. I'll think about it.

Right now I probably trust AE more than anyone else.

Vote Taz

Why do you believe there are only two Sith?

Ah, what the hell


UNVOTE TAZFTW

I don't know about hoops, but aside from such an event being basically canonical, to me that idea would also mesh nicely with dubb's death. The idea that there are Dark Side-capable Jedi among us, but not necessarily every malevolent entity is Sith.

I still don't know if it's better for us if there are more or fewer Sith though. The more there are, the easier it will be to find them, but the more there are, the bigger a mess of trouble we're in right now, too.

Here's what I know:

Taz came in somewhat late to vote me out. McKerney, a jedi, saves me. Why wasn't anyone compelled to vote for me? Because McKerney voted so late. The Sith obviously felt they had me gone.

The next day, I start out the charge on Taz. It's between Taz and Qwikshot, another jedi. I'm doing my own thing, going to the galley, and run into some guy with a hood over his head. I see his hand raise up, next thing I know, I'm fighting Qwikshot.

All I can remember about the time inbetween is wanting to vote Qwikshot.

How certain am I? Well, having a last second switch makes me pretty certain.

Tanglewood's late vote to try and seal off Qwikshot is also incredibly suspicious.

I saw this coming

a


mile


away.

My head out of your wool? Yes Dubb accused you, but we have no idea how much he actually knew. The only thing that we know is 100% is that he was evil. I've pointed out in previous posts why I think your logic is flawed. I can see the bandwagon building, so I'll leave it rolling and then we'll see where we stand after we lynch another jedi.

Get me lynched, I dare you. You'll kill a jedi. If the rest of the jedi don't band together and lynch afterward I'll bury my head in shame.

Especially in light of having voted for you first.

If he were switching from somebody else to try and break a tie, that's one thing (god, how tired am I? 'break a tie' originally came out as 'vote a try.' ugh).

But switching from somebody he professed to believe to be a Jedi to the other potential lynchee asscheeks up against the deadline, even there I could see just a change of heart. But with the chaos over your vote switch? It's like somebody miscounted the vote.

vote Tanglewood

Well most of the rest of the "jedi" seem to be following your lead and not mine. So good luck with what you reap.

Can I get an updated list of who is still in the game, or perhaps a list of those that have fallen? Saldana hasn't updated post 1, and I'd like to start tracking who's voted for who today...and who hasn't voted.

My doubt about there be two Sith is the setting this game is in. In the first post Saldana calls it Episode -17 and follows that up with 1000 years before Yoda/Vader/etc... Saldana also said the KOTOR games were used a source material (although I believe the KOTOR games take place 4000 years before the films). Sith are certainly more abundant in the past than at the time the movies take place, so I'm inclined to think there are more than 2.

Right, but just as we aren't the totality of the Jedi Order, I don't believe the Sith we'd be facing to be the totality of the Sith Order.

Therefore, it makes sense to me that a Sith infiltration on the Embleton flight would be a master/apprentice situation rather than a Sith Collective.

There could be a ton of Sith, but it doesn't mean they associate with one another the same way the Jedi Council do.

Sack, cartman, path...guys, do the right thing here. Obviously we saw last night that one or more of us can be compelled to vote for someone else. We need to band together, right or wrong for one candidate. If it's a close race between two, they're going to switch the vote to their advantage.

Hmm, interesting. If it is the belief that dubb was the apprentice, then the Sith Master is the only one left? If so, the only way he wins is to last until there are only 2 people left? This will be one long game if is true.

I can guarantee Taz votes me today. In all likely hood, I'd guess one or two players will feel compelled to vote me tonight before the deadline. We have to keep the #1 vote getter, regardless of who, high enough to where the vote cannot be swung.

Nope.

Forgot to add that it could be shorter if there are any conversions.

Then you're relying on the compelling votes. Interesting, just like yesterday.

I'm not convinced dubb WAS the apprentice. Didn't his death seem to indicate an affinity for the Dark Side, but no control over it?

Nope, I'm relying on my death reveal as a Jedi to get you unanimously voted for the next day.

That's an interesting point.

And Taz unvoting himself makes it, if I read the count right, 4-3, making it much easier for the Sith to accomplish just that.

Hmm.

You won't be a jedi.

Yes, I will.

If you are a jedi, then your deductive skills need work.

Only if you stolen some clothing.

If you're a jedi, you're doing a terrible job of it.

AE's Hit List:
1. Taz
2. Desnudo
3. Tanglewood

Remember this if I'm gone due to some compelling votes from the lynch.

I could say the same for you.

I think you did, dork.

No, I said your deductive skills need work.

As do yours. You're voting for a jedi. I'm voting for a Sith.

You'll have A TON of explaining to do when I'm gone. I'm looking forward to your death.:)

I look forward to it. I love to write. The pressure you are applying to me almost makes me want to vote for Taz just to prove a point. But that won't happen. I would never do that as a jedi.

Sack, as a Star Wars idiot, could you explain this in real short words that I might understand? :D

You would never do that as a Jedi. As it is, I have more important stuff to do than to argue with a nimrod who can tell which side is up.

It is easier for two Sith to get onboard undetected than have a werewolf ratio of I don't know, let's say 4 Sith getting onboard.

Ok, get going on that important stuff then. I'm sure you'll be back at 9:29 to vote anyway.

okay. We...what, we've got 13 people left on board here? Okay, 13 - Sith != complete Jedi Order. If there are two Sith on this ship, and 11 Jedi, those 11 Jedi aren't all there are in the universe. However, Jedi do tend to travel collectively, so it makes sense that there are several of us here.

The Sith, on the other hand, could well have a number of adherents...but that doesn't mean they travel collectively the way we do.

There could be a million Sith in the galaxy, and have us still only have a master and apprentice on board. Two escapes detection much easier than four or five.

It's part of what makes the Dark Side so insidious. It's like a shadow - always there, but you can never quite grab hold of it. It's not like an army that you can confront on the field of battle.

I almost DO hope there are more than two, so that if we manage to crack that shell, we can get them in quick succession. But the fewer there are, the more I fear for our survival hopes, because we'll have to lose good Jedi to find them, and they still get their crack at us at night. :(

Desnudo, my thought that there are two Sith is because that we haven't found one yet. If we still have a seer, this is mathematically unlikely.

Lets say we start with 4 Sith, which means 19 Jedi. One of which is the Seer himself.
Night 1: 17/4 - lost Superman
Night 2: 14/4 - lost Eagles/Alan/Lathum
Night 3: 14/3 - Dubb scores as Sith (more on this below)
Night 4: 12/3 - lost Schmidty, Qwikshot

1 - [(17/21) * (14/18) * (14/17) * (12/15)] =
1 - (.8095*.7777*.8235*.8) =
1 - 0.4147 = 58.53% chance on pure random selections of hitting a Sith. And that is including Dubb as a Sith even though I don't believe he was.

Given some rational decision making, the seer should have better chances than this and they go up even further if he was allowed a scan on Night 0.

Going with a 20-3 ratio seems steep, although I guess it is possible if they had two Sith and Dubb winning with a Sith victory.
53.5% chance of just randomly hitting a Sith with four scans. If there was a Night 0 scan allowed that value jumps to 61.6%.

The 21-2 ratio seems pretty impossible for the Sith, but it does up the ante for the Jedi seer to find one (will run the numbers if someone wants me to). And if you figure that they have a conversion somewhere along the way, due to the lure of the dark side, then this makes a little more sense.

Now, I don't believe that Dubb was a Sith. Going back to post #726 he had a "pale lavender blade", not the "scarlet of a Sith". And I'm including the part of that post that seems to make this most clear (bold supplied by me).

Long post, but you asking the question forced me to put some numbers behind my instinct on why I think there are only 2 Sith.

I have some earlier calcluations in the middle of the above post, based on a bad set of assumptions (basically did 17/21 four times, which I quickly realized was not correct). So please disregard the following text that appears in the post above:

Would just edit it out, but I try very hard to avoid editing during WW games, per the conventional rules.

I really think Taz is good and would like to go the Tanglewood route today, but to prevent a quick switch like yesterday I have to vote this way as I really feel AE is good.

Vote Taz

AE is more help to us in the long run, but I really feel this is a jedi/jedi showdown again.

dola - and I notice we have 2 guests view us now too.

For the time being, I'm going to stay on Tanglewood. I still believe AE is Jedi, and I don't know what to think about Taz.

Latest vote count, as of Post #1159:

Taz - Ardent (1064), Stkelly (1070), KWhit (1071), Hoops (1108), JeeberD (1120)
Ardent - Desnudo (1081), King (1084), Penny (1085)
Hoops - Gram (1092)
Tanglewood - Sack (1128)

Have not yet voted: SnDvls, Path12, Taz, Tanglewood, Cartman

SnDvls just voted.

Latest vote count, as of Post #1164
Taz - Ardent (1064), Stkelly (1070), KWhit (1071), Hoops (1108), JeeberD (1120), SnDvls (1160)
Ardent - Desnudo (1081), King (1084), Penny (1085)
Hoops - Gram (1092)
Tanglewood - Sack (1128)

Have not yet voted: Path12, Taz, Tanglewood, Cartman

fixed it for ya

I'd prefer to vote Tangle, since he seems the most suspicious in my mind with the late switch.

I'd also like to hear from Gram why he's voting against what AE is saying when AE is so high on his trust list.

I'm not sold on Taz, mainly because I'm not fully sold on AE, though I am leaning more in favor of him being good than I was earlier. If Taz ends up good than AE is gone tomorrow, but we're down yet another Jedi.

Anyway, my vote is 99% Tangle or Taz. I just need to decide which one.

that's the boat I was in, but if I had voted Tangle and all the other non-voters had done the same all tangle would have to do is show up late like he tried yesterday and lynch Taz.

If taz is good we're down a jedi, but I think we'd have two strong targets in AE and Tangle.

Well, I'm willing to try and start a bandwagon then. If it's close before I leave work at 5 Pacific I'll likely switch, but just to see if anyone wants to follow Sack and I:

VOTE TANGLEWOOD

All right, I'll play ball Path. I believe Barkeep was a jedi, erego you are to. I'm tired of watching jedi after jedi get eliminated. I really believe Taz to be a jedi based on his behaviour and the reaction to him. Tanglewood's mis-vote certainly highlights him as a suspect in a botched frame-up attempt.

Unvote AE

Vote Tanglewood

So that puts us at 6 Taz, 3 Tangle, 2 AE and 1 Hoops. Any Taz voters willing to jump to Tangle?

Call me a bandwagon jumper. I hope I'm not wrong about this vote.

VOTE Tanglewood

Go wolves!

This game is giving me a headache. Guys, we have to unify with our votes. I can't say this enough. Yesterday should be all you need for evidence. We have to have a clear cut lynch.

While I'm currently okay with my two most suspected wolves on the block right now, I'm still concerned about someone feeling compelled to vote.

then get with us and don't allow another tie. If you move off Taz then I can too and thus no tie....right now.

I am, but I want to make sure he can't jump in and sway it late again. Waiting on AE's move.

It doesn't hurt right now to see if there is movement towards one of the top two suspects (which we all seem to agree with so far, you said yourself that Tangle was way up on your list).

I just think that we can come to an easier consensus on Tangle than Taz but that nobody wanted to waste their vote. We'll see. There's always time to switch if need be.

If we move off, it actually promotes a tie. I think it's 6-3-2-1. Two more votes to Tangle would make it 5-4-2-1. I want to avoid a lower vote total if at all possible. In other words, the person we lynch needs to have a couple of votes over his closest opponent or the vote may be switched.

The only other scenario I have right now is that maybe we're toying with two Sith right now. If that's the case, it doesn't matter who's the leading vote getter.

unvote Taz
Vote Tangle

Ardent, if you stay you are potentally allowing a person a lot of us feel is a jedi dieing.

Sndvls, if one other person is willing to switch over to tangle then I will. That way it's another 6-3-2-1.

Are Taz and tanglewood's votes still outstanding?

but you know Taz and Tangle both still have to vote and they will vote for each other leaving a 3rd player to have to tie it up and thus putting the target on their back tomorrow. Would the sith really risk that?

Very well, though I'm not compelled to vote Tangle as I was Qwikshot.

Dola, I'll stick to it. If someone else will swap over, I will.

Last concern:

Let's say both their votes are still out there, and they're both Sith.

Let's say the vote is 6-3-2-1....where the 6 and 3 can be just about anyone. If those two come in and vote me...and compel someone else to vote me...Hmm...it would still be 6-5. I can dig that.

yes both votes are still outstanding.

Maybe hoops will move with you as you two seem to be attached at the moment.

Mmmmm....dang it. What to do.

All right, I'm diving in.

Unvote Taz

Vote Tanglewood.

by my count the only outstanding votes are Taz & Tangle

is this correct?

Taz would make me feel a whole lot better about Taz by voting Tanglewood at this moment.

The problem I see is that if I vote Tanglewood and he comes up Jedi, do I not still look suspicious?

As opposed to how swimmingly things are going right now? ;) I agree that Tangle is by no means a slam dunk, but it appears most people who I somewhat trust believe either you or Ardent or both, to be jedi.

This how people have the votes? As of Post #1190 ...

Taz - Stkelly (1070), KWhit (1071), Hoops (1108), JeeberD (1120)
Ardent - King (1084), Penny (1085)
Hoops - Gram (1092)
Tanglewood - Sack (1128), Path (1168), Desnudo (1169), Cartman (1172), SnDvls (1179), Ardent (1186)

Not Voted - Taz, Tanglewood

Whew? Anyone else see the weight come off my back? That would be my instructor making my 10 page assignment a whole lot easier.

That wind you felt was my sigh of relief.

As for Taz, as a Jedi, he should be afraid of someone being compelled to vote for him. I'd think he wouldn't want the vote to be close between him (a self proclaimed Jedi) and someone he doesn't know the status of.

Out of here in a couple minutes. I'll leave my vote where it's at. Sure would be nice to see a bit more margin though.

Triple: It wouldn't take much "compelling" to move the vote back over from tangle to taz...and I'm afraid I may be the target of such a move again.

Unvote Ardent Enthusiast

Vote Tanglewood


Well, earlier when I voted, it seemed to be choosing only between AE and Taz and I'm not convinced Taz is a sith (especially with his erratic play). AE has been fishy, but I don't think he's been nearly as fishy as Tanglewood and his "vote" last night. So, tangle it is. I think by doing this, we can clear alot of things up. Hopefully he'll come up sith and then AE will jump to the top of my trust list, even with his weird play.

I'll move the vote off of Taz if it is needed to prevent a possible two-vote swing.

I'm concerned there could be a 2 vote swing, hoops.

UNVOTE TAZ
VOTE KWHIT

I'm basically throwing this vote away right now in terms of seeing the guy lynched tonight, but creating a four vote difference between Taz and Tanglewood. Might as well vote on the guy I've been suspicious about in an effort to lead conversation there tomorrow if/when he is still around.

I'll say this:

As we get closer to the deadline, if someone comes in and changes their vote without an explanation at all...and by that I mean

UNVOTE YODA
VOTE R2D2

and absolutely nothing else, you may have a candidate of someone being compelled to vote. For a better example, look at my vote switch from Taz to Qwik.