Looking more and more like something was put in the water in Indiana.

GA initial returns not positive. FL appears ready to fully plunge into deep red territory.

CNN reporting independents in Georgia swung 20 points from +9 in 2020 for Biden to +11 for Trump. If that is the case she is cooked. Call it now.

I will not panic.
I will not panic.
I will not panic.
I will not panic.
I will not ...

I'm not seeing that. Georgia votes are actually looking ok right now, but still very early.

Maybe a different source? What are you using to track?

SOS website, and professional analyst from people who know the state. Like so:



Independents swung toward Trump bigly.

There are also a number of red counties showing Trump slipping 1-5%.

I'm not concerned about exit polls. For the most part the ear;y exits are usually off.

I just got a very bad feeling...

Yes, this is what ABC just drilled down to. Harris running ahead of Biden in a few counties. Early, but hopeful there.

There are a number of counties with a red shift in Georgia also. It looks unclear to me :confused:

woopwoop

Can you point them out? I'm seeing red counties running under Trumps counts in 2020. I haven't seen a red swing anywhere yet.

by 20 points?

Miami Dade numbers are eye-popping.

As far as GA, nearly all the counties reporting votes on that WaPo map have shifted even further red.

On the WaPo map, GA looks like it's getting hit with a bnuch of tornadoes.

According to the Post site Rainmaker linked there's at least like 15 of them. Some that seem possibly significant:

- Taylor (+45 Trump, +27 in '20)
- Decatur (+29 Trump, +17 in '20)
- Randolph (-1 Trump, -9 in '20)
- Lanier (+50 Trump, +42 in '20)
- McDuffie (+34 Trump, +19 in '20)

and similar.

My sense is Georgia is running a little bit toward Harris when using the polls as a basis. I'm seeing about 6,000 total less Trump votes from the counties reporting more than 50% turnout than I had expected.

If that trend continues, Georgia goes down to the wire.

Early, though, and no idea what remains to be counted from the counties reporting a significant number of votes.

The main pattern I see is likely even worse polarization than in '20. Red areas getting more red, blue areas getting more blue. That's something we don't need.

There isn't one speck of blue on the FL WaPo map yet. Not even for Harris to gain a point in a 60% Trump county. Even Leon County, the only blue county in the panhandle, is running 5 points behind Biden's pace (still will be blue but ... sheesh).

Oh, Florida is long gone. (Some have joked that the state is becoming a “red heat sink”, which, fine by me.)

Ohio is the opposite. Appears to be blue-shifting similar to Indiana. It would have to be an awfully big shift for it to be competitive though ...

Every conservative from Ohio moves to South Carolina or Florida once they have kids. Pretty sure there's more Buckeye fans in SC than Gamecock fans.

Mark Robinson has lost his governor race. Hard hit to all the Black Nazis out there.

In counties that have gotten all votes counted or close, he's running much better than in 2020. Those Liz Cheney voters didn't pan out in the rural areas it seems. Who'd have thought?

John Kerry agrees.

She never would. Her appeal is in the suburban Republican circle.

PredictIt up to .65 for Trump

About that.




Theory they mentioned on TV is that hard right leaning MAGA folks are flocking to Florida potentially making other states more competitve as the red votes move out and into a singular state like Florida.

Electoral College math

Robinhood at .67 for Trump.

Feels a lot like 2016

He's pulling away in Georgia

Maybe my call of Harris EV win and Trump popular vote win will come to fruition. The funiest possible outcome.

The Panic Is Strong With You.

I'm not there yet. I think there are good and bad signs.

If you discount the 8M illegals who regularly vote against Trump in CA, he should be president of the moon!

Holy shit he's going to win Miami-Dade :lol:

Yeah, FL is insane,

+18.

She's cooked

Maybe Loudon was an error.

Loudoun County seems to be a data error - it went down to 96% reported after it showed 99% reported in WaPo. It seems like in NovA EV votes also come last and they usually report late, so most likely the reported figure is a data error

— Libnex (@Libnex_) November 6, 2024

I saw somebody say that was likely.

Anybody have a link or source to turnout comparisons?

Ohio blue-shift continues. 37% in, Harris is up by 45k (51-49%). Just sayin'.

Heard people say if there was a blue shift in Iowa, then there would be one in Ohio. May be a sign?

Feels like the rust belt and NC will be where she needs to win. GA not looking to hot

The one maybe bright spot for you in Georgia is that it seems like the early voting is not skewed heavily blue like it was in the past. Seems like election day vote is much bluer.

While I don't count it as a harbinger of the overall, I am most definitely pleased to see Miami-Dade avoiding regression.

I was really quite concerned about that.

And so far only one percent reporting from Gwinnett and Dekalb. Big shift once they report.

Seems like it might be tough to compare 2020 to 2024 until counties have fully reported. Republicans seem to be voting early more now and Democrats may not be using VBM as much. COVID sort of made everything weird.