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Edward64 07-26-2018 10:46 AM
I kinda like Sessions right now re: investigation. He seems to be the only person that has said no to Trump and survived.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/26/polit...ion/index.html
Quote:
Attorney General Jeff Sessions defended Rod Rosenstein on Thursday, saying he has "the highest confidence" in him one day after House conservatives introduced a resolution to impeach the deputy attorney general overseeing the special counsel Russia investigation.

"My deputy Rod Rosenstein is highly capable. I have the highest confidence in him," Sessions said during a news conference in Boston when asked about the impeachment effort against Rosenstein.

On Wednesday, GOP Reps. Mark Meadows and Jim Jordan took aim at Rosenstein by introducing a resolution to impeach. The move escalates an ongoing feud some House Republicans have had with the Justice Department, which they have accused of withholding key information from Congress.

The resolution on its own does not mean that the House is on the verge of voting to impeach the deputy attorney general, and conservative House members agreed Thursday morning to holding off on a vote to impeach Rosenstein until after the August recess.

Sessions suggested on Thursday that Congress should focus on other issues instead of targeting his deputy.

PilotMan 07-26-2018 10:48 AM
The timing of his process to remove Rosenstein seems to me, to be tied very closely to the elections this fall.

With no word from Mueller, no update on the progress, only little bits of information coming out from the investigation. The R's are looking for a way, any way to turn the conversation and nullify the effect of the investigation continuing or running deep toward the election. They have to realize that the threat from worse news, or a linger of the investigation has more of a threat to the election, than the anger that would be felt from a forced shutdown, or forced attempt to end it. It would seem they have already set these two options against one another and are ready to move on to do what it takes to either shut down, or neuter the effect of the investigation as the election moves closer.

The timing of this is critical.

bronconick 07-26-2018 11:29 AM
Jim Jordan is working on emulating Dennis Hastert, announcing a bid to be the next Republican leader while being a pervert or enabler.

JPhillips 07-26-2018 12:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bronconick (Post 3212757)
Jim Jordan is working on emulating Dennis Hastert, announcing a bid to be the next Republican leader while being a pervert or enabler.

Who will be the first talking head to argue that ignoring sexual abuse makes him more qualified to be Speaker?

JPhillips 07-26-2018 03:52 PM
There will never be a "worst" statement, but this is bad. Trump talking about the trade deficit:

Quote:
"In other words, if we didn't trade, we'd save a hell of a lot of money."

NobodyHere 07-26-2018 05:25 PM
But if we don't trade, then where will Trump branded clothing be made?

Ben E Lou 07-26-2018 08:17 PM
Breaking News: Internet flips out over least surprising DJT news this month: that he knew about infamous Trump Tower meeting in advance. *shurg*

Thomkal 07-26-2018 10:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3212808)
Breaking News: Internet flips out over least surprising DJT news this month: that he knew about infamous Trump Tower meeting in advance. *shurg*


Cohen says he'll testify to Mueller about it. Until that happens, I can't be very excited about this.



Also Avernatti says that he will represent 3 more women who had affairs with Trump and paid by AMI for their stories. One of the women became pregnant.

Edward64 07-27-2018 05:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3212812)
Cohen says he'll testify to Mueller about it. Until that happens, I can't be very excited about this.

Yeah, I'll wait and not get my hopes up yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3212812)
Also Avernatti says that he will represent 3 more women who had affairs with Trump and paid by AMI for their stories. One of the women became pregnant.

This should be interesting and entertaining. The dems should have hired Avernatti to do opp research before the elections.

Ksyrup 07-27-2018 06:41 AM
Given the Q&A above about tying the Daniels payment to campaign finance laws, isn't the fact that there are multiple affairs/payments potentially bad news? Seems to me it can show a pattern of him paying women off to stay quiet that has nothing to do with running for President, and everything to do with him being a celebrity scumbag husband with enough money to shut people up.

Clearly, the fact that he's had multiple affairs in and of itself isn't going to change anyone's minds at this point. If the pregnancy is true, curious if there's direct evidence he demanded an abortion. Would love to see how that is twisted by Trump fanatics.

Edward64 07-27-2018 07:38 AM
I think this shows small progress which is a good thing.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/n...troops-n895126
Quote:
North Korea turned over what are believed to be the remains of 55 U.S. service members who were killed during the Korean War of the 1950s on Friday local time, the 65th anniversary of the armistice that ended the fighting, the United States and the United Nations said.
:
The return is part of an agreement reached during the June summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The transfer sets off a lengthy series of forensic examinations and tests to determine whether the remains are human and whether they are actually U.S. or allied troops who were killed in the conflict.
:
Joint U.S.-North Korea military search teams collected 229 sets of U.S. remains from 1996 to 2005. But efforts to recover and return more remains stalled for more than a decade as Washington and Pyongyang clashed over North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The United States, meanwhile, alleged that the safety of its recovery teams wasn't being guaranteed.

Edward64 07-27-2018 07:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3212828)
Given the Q&A above about tying the Daniels payment to campaign finance laws, isn't the fact that there are multiple affairs/payments potentially bad news? Seems to me it can show a pattern of him paying women off to stay quiet that has nothing to do with running for President, and everything to do with him being a celebrity scumbag husband with enough money to shut people up.

I think your second sentence is what he will use as a defense (unless there is a smoking gun that actually ties campaign funds to payment or proof that the payments were to influence the election).

If there are other payments and they have been occurring for a while, it lends credibility that payments to Daniels/McDougal just before the election was nothing special, just part of a "celebrity scumbag husband with enough money to shut people up".

Secret tape may not add to legal jeopardy for Trump or Cohen - Chicago Tribune
Quote:
At issue is whether the payment the men are discussing was campaign-related and intended to influence the election, in which case it would likely be regarded as a contribution, or whether it was merely meant to shield the married Trump from an embarrassing revelation harmful to his personal life. Also important is whether the payment to McDougal from the Enquirer's parent company, American Media Inc., functioned as a backdoor campaign contribution or as a legitimate media company expense.

"It's a piece of evidence. It's not a smoking gun," Rick Hasen, a campaign finance law expert at the University of California, Irvine, said of the recording. "It's relevant to the investigation, and it's relevant to considering whether Trump or Cohen or AMI committed campaign finance violations, but on its own, it does not constitute proof of any violation."

He added, "It does not establish either a motive to spend illegal or unreported money in violation of the campaign finance laws, and it doesn't establish that any money was actually paid for this purpose."

Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani has said the conversation wasn't campaign-related and that Trump and Cohen didn't make a payment to buy the rights.

Atocep 07-27-2018 06:46 PM
The EU has realized what people in the US realized some time ago. You have to treat our President like a toddler.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...rce=reddit.com

Edward64 07-28-2018 12:35 PM
Hopefully Geraldo is right and there are some troubling business dealings that Mueller can go after. I don't think infidelity is that impactful, collusion would be great if it can be tied back to Trump directly, but think soft underbelly is his business.

Two thoughts:

1) If I was Trump, I would reach out to Cohen and see if he can be brought back into the fold (is it too late?)
2) If I ever have to deal with a lawyer on sensitive matters, I'll make sure I'm not being taped or ask lawyer to turn it off

http://thehill.com/homenews/media/39...robe-of-trumps
Quote:
“@MichaelCohen212 is soft underbelly of @realDonaldTrump,” Rivera tweeted on Friday. “We all have secrets-incl @POTUS- To have your secret keeper cooperating w a hostile govt agency-as Cohen is apparently doing-insures this scandal has legs & will pivot from porn stars & collusion to Trump’s business dealings.”
:
“Cohen recorded everything,” said Bryan Lanza, a former Trump campaign official. “The juiciest parts may be yet to come.”

More than 100 of Cohen’s recordings, including conversations with reporters and others discussing topics related to the president, have been seized by the government.

corbes 07-28-2018 12:44 PM
From the Dept. of Lest We Forget

Quote:
“There were three agencies, and each was like its own stovepipe. Each had its own boss, and they did not communicate,” Sabraw said at a Friday court hearing in San Diego. “What was lost in the process was the family. The parents didn’t know where the children were, and the children didn’t know where the parents were. And the government didn’t know either.”


‘Deleted’ families: What went wrong with Trump’s family-separation effort - The Washington Post

JPhillips 07-30-2018 08:21 AM
Giuliani is now saying that collusion isn't a crime.

The pee tape is real.

QuikSand 07-30-2018 09:02 AM
It's patently obvious where the goalposts eventually land, right? At some point the MAGA message will simply shift to "as long as the Russians, whom we were working with of course, didn't actually go into the voting machines and change votes, then there's nothing wrong with what we did together to alter the US election." And 40% of America, and a theoretically valid Electoral College majority, will effectively agree that we have always been at war with Eastasia.

PilotMan 07-30-2018 09:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3213041)
It's patently obvious where the goalposts eventually land, right? At some point the MAGA message will simply shift to "as long as the Russians, whom we were working with of course, didn't actually go into the voting machines and change votes, then there's nothing wrong with what we did together to alter the US election." And 40% of America, and a theoretically valid Electoral College majority, will effectively agree that we have always been at war with Eastasia.


+1000

Edward64 07-30-2018 10:08 AM
Had to read more. He may be right but that's not the full story.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/30/polit...ntv/index.html
Quote:
The President has repeatedly denied that there was any collusion between his campaign and Moscow. But he has made a similar argument to that of Giuliani's, telling The New York Times in December that "There is no collusion, and even if there was, it's not a crime."

At a CNN town hall in April, former FBI Director James Comey, whom Trump fired, said collusion "is not actually a thing that exists under the federal laws of the United States."

Instead, Comey continued, the question is whether any Americans conspired with a foreign government to commit crimes against the US, which is a crime.
:
And speaking to CNN in May, Carrie Cordero, a CNN legal analyst and an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said collusion isn't a crime "in the literal sense" but that there could be related criminal violations in colluding, such as receiving foreign money in a political campaign or assisting with or being an accessory to computer hacking.

No evidence has publicly emerged that the Trump campaign has engaged in these activities, though Mueller's investigation is ongoing.

corbes 07-30-2018 10:21 AM
Let's review.


Quote:
If collusion has no legal meaning in the context of the Russia investigation, then “why has the word … captured everyone’s attention?” What’s more, how did a word with no legal relevance to the case become so associated with the Trump-Russia allegations?

* * *

[Backstory omitted] prompted me do some digging on the intellectual history of the word “collusion” in the context of L’Affaire Russe, how it got injected into the bloodstream of the conversation, and how it has come to so dominate discussion of Trump-Russia matters that the president can simply tweet “NO COLLUSION!” to convey a huge amount of meaning to his supporters and opponents alike. How did the word “collusion” get introduced into the public lexicon? And who is initially responsible for introducing it? The answer, it turns out, goes back to July of 2016 at the Democratic National Convention.

On July 22, 2016, Wikileaks released more than 19,000 emails from top members of the Democratic National Committee. Two days after the release, Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager Robby Mook told CNN that, according to “experts,” Russian state actors had stolen the emails from the DNC and were releasing them through Wikileaks “for the purpose of actually helping Donald Trump.”

Mook did not use the word “collusion,” but the press, in reporting his comments, did. Within the hour, in an article timestamped at 9:55 a.m., the Washington Examiner reported that Paul Manafort and Donald Trump Jr, had responded to Mook’s allegations and “vigorously denied any kind of collusion between Trump Sr. and the Russian president.” (To be clear, Manafort denied “any ties” between Putin and the Trump campaign, and Donald Trump Jr. criticized Mook for “lie after lie.” Neither one of them mentioned “collusion.”) Ninety minutes later, at 11:27 a.m., ABC News repeated what it termed Mook’s “allegation of collusion between the campaign and Russia.” And three hours later, at approximately 12:35 p.m., Bernie Sanders’s campaign manager, Jeff Weaver, told CNN’s Jake Tapper, “If there was some kind of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian intelligence or Russian hackers, that clearly has to be dealt with.”

From there it was off to the races. Over the next two weeks, the word “collusion” was used hundreds of times by politicians like Martin O’Malley and media personalities such as Trevor Noah.

The term caught on, I think, because it captured the general suspicion that the campaign was somehow in on the hack or knowingly benefiting from it while carefully eliding the fact that no tangible evidence had yet emerged tying the Trump campaign to the Kremlin. (Remember that news of the Trump Tower meeting and other contacts between the campaign and Russian actors had not yet become public.)

After this initial spurt, the collusion frenzy tapered off. Through August and September the word appeared only sporadically in the press, as other stories edged out the Trump-Russia narrative for dominance in the campaign. But when Wikileaks published more than 50,000 emails from Clinton’s campaign chairman in October of 2016, the term had a renaissance of sorts.

The popularity of the term continued to wax and wane throughout the final months of 2016. When a big story would break about Trump, the campaign, or Clinton’s emails, the word “collusion” would appear in headlines. Not every story described the relationship as collusion. Some referred to it as “ties” with Russia. Others questioned whether Trump was “coordinating” with Putin. Collusion had not yet become the de facto term to describe the Russia connection. But it was very much in the mix.

On Dec. 9, 2016, the Washington Post reported that the CIA had concluded that Russia intervened in the 2016 election in order to aid the Trump campaign. Although the Post did not mention the word “collusion” in its article, other media outlets such as the Economist, the Guardian, and CNN included the term when they picked up the story. After that day, the use of the word “collusion” spiked dramatically. It became the universally accepted term to describe any potential relationship between Donald Trump’s campaign and Russia. Even the individuals under investigation bought into the use of the word. In July of 2017, for example, Jared Kushner told reporters “Let me be very clear: I did not collude with Russia.” And in September of 2017, Donald Trump Jr. testified before Senate investigators “I did not collude with any foreign government.”

It’s probably here to stay, despite its being a legal non sequitur.


Where the Heck Did the Term “Collusion” Come From? - Lawfare


More context:

Quote:
No impeachment myth is quite as inaccurate and tenacious as the notion that an impeachment inquiry must wait until evidence emerges that the president has committed a crime. This argument has been explicitly made by unembarrassed Trumpists such as Ed Rogers in the Washington Post. More importantly, it is the implicit argument underlying the obsessive commentatory over whether President Trump has committed a crime, like obstructing justice or striking a quid pro quo with Russia.

Impeaching Trump: Four Eternal Myths - Lawfare

corbes 07-30-2018 10:23 AM
Quote:
The problem with dwelling too much on the covert forms of collaboration, which we have come to call “collusion,” is that doing so risks letting Trump at least a little bit off the hook for what is not meaningfully disputed: that the president publicly, knowingly, and repeatedly (if only tacitly) collaborated with a foreign power’s intelligence effort to interfere in the presidential election of the country he now leads. Focusing on covert collusion risks putting the lines of propriety, acceptable candidate behavior, and even (let’s be frank) patriotism in such a place where openly encouraging foreign dictators to hack your domestic opponent’s emails falls on the tolerable side. It risks accepting that all is okay with the Trump-Russia relationship unless some secret or illegal additional element actually involves illicit contacts between the campaign and Russian operatives.

The Wall Begins to Crumble: Notes on Collusion - Lawfare

NobodyHere 07-30-2018 11:50 AM
Rand Paul buckles again

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3...-for-kavanaugh

JPhillips 07-30-2018 11:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3213041)
It's patently obvious where the goalposts eventually land, right? At some point the MAGA message will simply shift to "as long as the Russians, whom we were working with of course, didn't actually go into the voting machines and change votes, then there's nothing wrong with what we did together to alter the US election." And 40% of America, and a theoretically valid Electoral College majority, will effectively agree that we have always been at war with Eastasia.

I'm in FL this week and the primary commercials are just wild. The GOP ads are little more than arguing who is more like Trump. This is true not just for House races, but state races too. Politics have always been tribal, but I've never seen anything like how the GOP has identified with Trump.

RainMaker 07-30-2018 04:15 PM
Another round of tax cuts for the rich.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/u...cuts-rich.html

jct32 07-30-2018 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3213067)
I'm in FL this week and the primary commercials are just wild. The GOP ads are little more than arguing who is more like Trump. This is true not just for House races, but state races too. Politics have always been tribal, but I've never seen anything like how the GOP has identified with Trump.

I vote mostly R. We had our primaries about a month ago. There were guys who said stuff like this. "Vote for me so we can support Trump" That was an automatic disqualifier for me.

JPhillips 07-30-2018 04:45 PM
I'm so old I remember when changing laws through presidential fiat was tyranny.

JPhillips 07-30-2018 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3213067)
I'm in FL this week and the primary commercials are just wild. The GOP ads are little more than arguing who is more like Trump. This is true not just for House races, but state races too. Politics have always been tribal, but I've never seen anything like how the GOP has identified with Trump.

I just saw my favorite, an ad for a Commissioner of Agriculture whose first priority is Promoting the Trump Agenda.

RainMaker 07-30-2018 06:15 PM
There is a weird cult-like aspect to his support. I mean people have always been passionate about politicians but the part about trusting them over your family and friends is bizarre.

RainMaker 07-30-2018 06:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3213106)
I just saw my favorite, an ad for a Commissioner of Agriculture whose first priority is Promoting the Trump Agenda.

The agenda that has been so disastrous to their industry they have to offer up billions in welfare for farmers.

Atocep 07-30-2018 08:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3213110)
The agenda that has been so disastrous to their industry they have to offer up billions in welfare for farmers.

And they'll still vote for him.

Radii 07-30-2018 09:29 PM
https://slate.com/business/2018/07/s...ly-argues.html

"Conservative Think-Tanker Accidentally Argues That Single Payer Could Save Americans $2 Trillion"

lungs 07-30-2018 10:19 PM
The rumors I've heard is that dairy will receive $0.75 per hundred lbs of milk produced in 2018. If this is in fact true, I'll be in line to collect $20,000 for the 2 million pounds of milk my farm produced before ceasing production. Had I continued this year at full capacity, using those same numbers I would have received over $100,000.

USDA also revised and extended an insurance program that guaranteed collecting a payout. I've collected over $10,000 already on that because they use my production levels from 2011-13 as a baseline. While we didn't intentionally do this (honest), the rules stated that we still had to be milking cows when we signed up. We signed up on May 30th, and the cows left on May 31st. I'll be eligible to collect the rest of this year.

And then we should get a little payout in the fall for a slightly below average crop year in 2017. Usually that's more than $10k. Some years we get nothing, some years we get something. I won't count this one against Trump.

So, as you can see, my medium sized farming operation stands to take in quite a few handouts from the government this year. Do I regret selling? Not at all. I projected to lose $250,000 this year and that was before Trump's tariff games sunk the milk price some more. I think my dad says it best, government assistance for farmers is usually just enough to keep them dumb enough to keep producing. That's talking about the less than financially astute farmers who are not too worried about eating a few hundred grand of their equity (or are even aware they are burning it). Farming is a disease and many will think everything is just fine and keep plugging away until that banker finally pulls the plug on them.

These government handouts will unfortunately only delay the inevitable for many farmers that should probably call it quits.

QuikSand 07-31-2018 07:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radii (Post 3213121)
https://slate.com/business/2018/07/s...ly-argues.html

"Conservative Think-Tanker Accidentally Argues That Single Payer Could Save Americans $2 Trillion"

A fascinating case of battling headlines. If you want evidence that tribal thinking isn't just a plight of the lower classes and under-educated, here you go. The math behind this honestly isn't hard... but getting away from the message that you have decide in advance that you support... that's really hard.

albionmoonlight 07-31-2018 09:05 AM
EDITOR: We need a pic of Manafort that makes it looks like he just ate an innocent toddler's soul.

STAFF: Got it!

Kodos 07-31-2018 09:23 AM
It does have a certain Hannibal Lecter feel to it.

Ksyrup 07-31-2018 09:29 AM
That's one of my favorite games - matching pics with headlines with news source.

cuervo72 07-31-2018 09:50 PM
Seems to make the yearly rounds, but the first I've heard of it. Reactions are, of course, amusing.

Resurfaced Mike Pence Opinion Piece About 'Mulan' Reminds Us Just How Messed Up He Really Is

JPhillips 08-01-2018 07:40 AM
Jeff Flake may be doing something.

He's in Africa now on vacation, meaning that Mcconnell's plan to push judge nominations through by keeping the Senate in session in August isn't working. Flake is on Judiciary, so without him the committee can't pass any nominations without Dem votes.

It's unclear whether he's coming back soon or if he's staying away for the whole month, but it appears that calls to actually do something are being answered.

Butter 08-01-2018 07:45 AM
Does vacation count as doing something?

JPhillips 08-01-2018 08:00 AM
It does if he's purposefully keeping the Judiciary committee from passing on nominations.

Lathum 08-01-2018 08:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cuervo72 (Post 3213203)
Seems to make the yearly rounds, but the first I've heard of it. Reactions are, of course, amusing.

Resurfaced Mike Pence Opinion Piece About 'Mulan' Reminds Us Just How Messed Up He Really Is

This is insane

whomario 08-01-2018 10:12 AM
Somebody woke up in a sweat today ...



http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...ssia-probe?amp

JPhillips 08-01-2018 03:23 PM
What the flippity fuck?

ISiddiqui 08-01-2018 03:32 PM
Solitary confinement? What is he, a child who was brought over the border by his parents?

Thomkal 08-01-2018 06:48 PM
Not just the start of the Manafort trial that set off Trump's twitter-fest this morning:


https://abcnews.go.com/US/special-co...ry?id=56973384

bbgunn 08-01-2018 10:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lungs (Post 3213122)
The rumors I've heard is that dairy will receive $0.75 per hundred lbs of milk produced in 2018. If this is in fact true, I'll be in line to collect $20,000 for the 2 million pounds of milk my farm produced before ceasing production. Had I continued this year at full capacity, using those same numbers I would have received over $100,000.

USDA also revised and extended an insurance program that guaranteed collecting a payout. I've collected over $10,000 already on that because they use my production levels from 2011-13 as a baseline. While we didn't intentionally do this (honest), the rules stated that we still had to be milking cows when we signed up. We signed up on May 30th, and the cows left on May 31st. I'll be eligible to collect the rest of this year.

And then we should get a little payout in the fall for a slightly below average crop year in 2017. Usually that's more than $10k. Some years we get nothing, some years we get something. I won't count this one against Trump.

So, as you can see, my medium sized farming operation stands to take in quite a few handouts from the government this year. Do I regret selling? Not at all. I projected to lose $250,000 this year and that was before Trump's tariff games sunk the milk price some more. I think my dad says it best, government assistance for farmers is usually just enough to keep them dumb enough to keep producing. That's talking about the less than financially astute farmers who are not too worried about eating a few hundred grand of their equity (or are even aware they are burning it). Farming is a disease and many will think everything is just fine and keep plugging away until that banker finally pulls the plug on them.

These government handouts will unfortunately only delay the inevitable for many farmers that should probably call it quits.

Just wanted to say thank you for your insight, lungs. I like hearing how Trump policies actually affect people in their areas of life around the country.

RainMaker 08-02-2018 03:06 PM


miked 08-02-2018 03:37 PM
Because employers are keeping the extras to stuff in their pockets and line the pockets of shareholders?

Marc Vaughan 08-02-2018 03:39 PM
Hardly a puzzle - most 'new' jobs are poorly paid and the employers see employees as easily replaced so don't give raises, simply hiring new staff as other people leave.

The government isn't raising minimum wage so the tax cuts have just lead to higher profits and share buy-backs, workers as expected in most cases have been unaffected unless they own shares.

Corporations are run for profit, if they are to give back to society and support the region that they are based in then they need to be pushed to pay fair salaries, give workers protections and have taxes enforced upon them - something which doesn't appear to be a priority of politicians... instead they increase the deflationary aspects of wages by weakening unions and healthcare provisions further in the hope of strengthening their political advantage.

CU Tiger 08-02-2018 03:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Vaughan (Post 3213398)
Hardly a puzzle - most 'new' jobs are poorly paid and the employers see employees as easily replaced so don't give raises, simply hiring new staff as other people leave.

The government isn't raising minimum wage so the tax cuts have just lead to higher profits and share buy-backs, workers as expected in most cases have been unaffected unless they own shares.

Corporations are run for profit, if they are to give back to society and support the region that they are based in then they need to be pushed to pay fair salaries, give workers protections and have taxes enforced upon them - something which doesn't appear to be a priority of politicians... instead they increase the deflationary aspects of wages by weakening unions and healthcare provisions further in the hope of strengthening their political advantage.


Hogwash.


Every industry I know is dieing for good workers. Good companies value and pay their employees. If you work for a company that doesnt(royal you not specific) then quit and go somewhere that does.

RainMaker 08-02-2018 03:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CU Tiger (Post 3213399)
Every industry I know is dieing for good workers. Good companies value and pay their employees. If you work for a company that doesnt(royal you not specific) then quit and go somewhere that does.

Then there must not be a lot of "good companies" because real wages are not going up.

JPhillips 08-02-2018 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CU Tiger (Post 3213399)
Hogwash.


Every industry I know is dieing for good workers. Good companies value and pay their employees. If you work for a company that doesnt(royal you not specific) then quit and go somewhere that does.

National statistics on wage growth don't support that idea.

Marc Vaughan 08-02-2018 04:04 PM
CUTiger - which industries are you thinking of, its not something I've noticed locally here and even in industries which I know are desperate for workers the companies are just working their existing workers harder.

They can do this because the workers have no savings and can't afford to quit their jobs (and lose healthcare etc.) and limited time to even look for another one even.

In case people are interested the area I see this in most is the horse one where Trumps immigration policies have lead to a huge deficit in staffing.

I'm not sure what can be done about things really without some sort of impetus to force corporations to help society move forward - heck that NPR article intimates that its 'ok' to pay awful wages because they contribute to healthcare ... until America actually faces up to the fact that capitalism doesn't magically cure everything the middle class will continue to become poorer as time goes on.

PS - Please note that I'm not meaning 'skilled technical' people in general, this is aimed more at the more common jobs which have a more generalised skillset such as retail etc.

CU Tiger 08-02-2018 04:17 PM
I'm not smart enough to debate you guys on charts and national averages. Better said Im distrusting of stats until I can analyze their collection method, sample technique, etc. I dont know if the graph above is accurate, fictitious, regional or universal.


What I do know is this. I can't find people. I start guys out with a high school degree at $22/hr and give them a company truck. Have good benefits, etc. We are in an area where the mdian home price is $189k. A guy fresh out of high school with no training can make $65k his first year here. 5 years in I have guys making $85-100k. These are skilled but uneducated jobs.


Im not an anomaly.Monday night I sat at the local contractor association meeting. The #1 topic was on finding and hiring good people. One of our member decided it would be interesting to have a poll. There were 37 companies in the room represented. 35 of the 37 were currently hiring and 31 of the 35 needed 5+ people. Universally we are paying more than ever. And cant get applicants.


I have to be careful to respond logically. Its just a hot button emotional issue to me. I get so tired of the oppressed middle class narrative. This is STILL the land of opportunity. If you are willing to work for it, you can change your lot in life. It will mean being uncomfortable, it will mean sacrifice. But anyone who is talented and driven enough can succeed to darn near whatever level they want here.


I think there is a bigger problem about expectation and what a living wage is etc (here is a hint a cell phone isnt a need. An Iphone definitely isnt a need. And a new model Iphone damn sure aint a need)



I think anyone who knows me at all IRL would tell you I'm as average as they come. I'm no smarter than anyone. No unique unusual skill. Not Mr. Charisma by any stretch. But I grew up in foster care. In government housing. And I've now built 3 companies to 7 figure values. I'm not special in anything except my work ethic.



If you want to work 40 hours and complain about your lot in life, you are free to do so. I just refuse to feel sorry for anyone who is only working quarter time.

NobodyHere 08-02-2018 04:26 PM
So are you hiring?

CU Tiger 08-02-2018 04:31 PM
lol. yes. want a job?
Got about 8 friends?

cuervo72 08-02-2018 05:29 PM
How "backwoods" is Backwoods, SC? Is that more for effect or is it an accurate description of the area? I'd imagine if there's that much of a need for workers the area would be desirable and growing and could pull workers from other areas. Of course those workers would need to know jobs are there, have the ability to pick up and move, etc.

It seems as though people from, say, coal mining towns might easily find something else in the current market if they were willing/able to move. It seems more reasonable than pushing for bygone industries to return. Not everyone is inclined to do so though.

RainMaker 08-02-2018 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CU Tiger (Post 3213405)
I get so tired of the oppressed middle class narrative.

You can argue whether it's oppressive or not but the statistics point to real wages being more or less stagnant since the 80's while the economy has boomed. Purchasing power has gone down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CU Tiger (Post 3213405)
This is STILL the land of opportunity.

Your level of success is still heavily dependent on your parents income level.

America being the "land of opportunity" is the narrative. The real "land of opportunity" would be a better fit for countries like Canada, Finland, Norway, or Denmark. Countries with much lower intergenerational earnings elasticity.

whomario 08-02-2018 06:53 PM
No offense, but how exactly is your personal experience in one town/region of one state relevant to the vast majority of americans and describes the actual state of affairs better than longterm studies looking at a wide spread of areas, job field/areas and demographics ? Anecdotal evidence doesn't make statistics irrelevant ...

I mean, it's not exactly feasible for an underpaid office worker to up and leave his/her firm in Portland and move to South Carolina on a whim. Even if they knew of those open jobs. Even if you disregard (which it sounds a litte bit like you do) that they might actually be doing exactly what they want to do in life and is living where he wants and where he has social roots set down.

While a new Iphone is certainly not some sort of human right, it also isn't exactly snobby to expect to be paid a reasonable amount in your field regardless of wether a little less is still plenty enough to get by. If everybody just gets by, that isn't going to make all those people very happy that are trying to actually sell all their manufactured goods to the middle class.

And if that employee and 20.000 others would do so, this still would leave a few million people in jobs that are not paying what they should in a strong economy. So that can't be stated/talked about because in your region a few hundred more could earn a decent living and aren't ?

Distribution of people and need for skilled workers is of course an issue in pretty much every western country, but that isn't exactly forced by ignoring other (and dare i say broader) issues with regard to wages in other regions and/or fields.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3213416)
The real "land of opportunity" would be a better fit for countries like Canada, Finland, Norway, or Denmark. Countries with much lower intergenerational earnings elasticity.

And much lower educational expense, a working social support system and much more affordable healthcare ;) This simply all adds up over the lifetime of the average person, no matter if there are people who manage to live where there is well paid work, are happy with that work/region, this don't have to go to College to find their dream job and manage to not get seriously ill/injured along the way.

Edward64 08-02-2018 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3213416)
Your level of success is still heavily dependent on your parents income level.

America being the "land of opportunity" is the narrative. The real "land of opportunity" would be a better fit for countries like Canada, Finland, Norway, or Denmark. Countries with much lower intergenerational earnings elasticity.

We're back to this again. I would suggest a happy compromise that US is "one of the top spots for land of opportunity". Still pretty darn significant.

Just for reference, my analysis. TL: DR version is sure the Nordics may have more opportunity but where do most people in the world want to immigrate to? The US.

US vs Rest of World - re: Land of Opportunity - Front Office Football Central

According to Chetty's analysis (see reference in link above), best predictor of upward mobility is not necessarily "income level" but ...

Quote:
... The strongest predictors of upward mobility are measures of family structure such as the fraction of single parents in the area. As with race, parents' marital status does not matter purely through its effects at the individual level. Children of married parents also have higher rates of upward mobility if they live in communities with fewer single parents.

Edward64 08-02-2018 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3213416)
... the statistics point to real wages being more or less stagnant since the 80's while the economy has boomed. Purchasing power has gone down.

I do agree with this. As a whole, low to middle class have not had the gains as the upper class for sure.

whomario 08-02-2018 07:54 PM
Not doing this again beyond this one statement: Statistical data isn't discountable by claiming some sort of narrative/"feels"/desire based factor (McDonalds isn't a superior place to eat just because lots of people do, nor does the amount of fans have any bearings of the quality of a sports team. It merely measures their popularity gained at least for a good portion by historic popularity/success carrying over) and aiming to be better than 25th should not be a worthwhile goal for the No1 country in terms of economic power (by a landslide).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3213429)

According to Chetty's analysis (see reference in link above), best predictor of upward mobility is not necessarily "income level" but ...

US ranks near the bottom there too when comparing with other western developed countries, FYI (at least it did around 2010).

https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2...und-the-world/

Marc Vaughan 08-02-2018 09:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CU Tiger (Post 3213405)
What I do know is this. I can't find people. I start guys out with a high school degree at $22/hr and give them a company truck.

Out of interest you say you 'give them a company truck' - so what size truck and what sort of licence do you need to be able to drive it? ... just wondering how common qualified people are, if its a large vehicle then there is probably a declining pool of people who can do that job, simply put driving is something which is 'known' to be time limited as a profession so I can't see many younger people trying to move into that profession knowing within 10-15 years its likely to have been automated out of existence.

Marc Vaughan 08-02-2018 09:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CU Tiger (Post 3213405)
I have to be careful to respond logically. Its just a hot button emotional issue to me. I get so tired of the oppressed middle class narrative. This is STILL the land of opportunity. If you are willing to work for it, you can change your lot in life. It will mean being uncomfortable, it will mean sacrifice. But anyone who is talented and driven enough can succeed to darn near whatever level they want here.
My main concern with the US isn't the lack of opportunity - I think you can do a fair bit IF you have some economic opportunity to start with (ie. capital to start a business or/and get an education) .... its the lack of stability generally if things don't go according to play, ie. if that startup business folds or you get sick etc. .... most countries give you some fail safes to ensure you can get up and try again ... this might be via. you having your rent/mortgage interest paid and a level of income guaranteed or whatever ... and it generally includes free healthcare.

66% of people in the US can't afford to take an unexpected bill of $500 and have less than a months income in savings, that combined with the lack of a social safety net is incredibly bad for the countries mental health imho and it prevents a lot of people from stepping out and attempting to setup companies and such ... which is detrimental to the US.

cuervo72 08-02-2018 09:36 PM
I'd guess a pickup which is outfitted with tool boxes, maybe along the lines of this? https://www.buildertrend.com/blog/wp...tion-Truck.jpg

My dad had one very briefly, I think (maybe when he was a foreman?). It wasn't actually his, he just had use of it to get to/from jobs. It wasn't like he could go driving it around for pleasure.

RainMaker 08-02-2018 10:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3213429)
According to Chetty's analysis (see reference in link above), best predictor of upward mobility is not necessarily "income level" but ...

Well income level and how many parents in a home go hand in hand. Although a country like Canada has similar numbers to us in single-parent households yet crushes us in the mobility numbers. So there's likely more to it.

And remember that the ruling party supports policies that increase single-parent households. So if that is the cause for the lack of mobility, our policies don't address it (and make it worse).

The "land of opportunity" was a slogan to encourage immigration as well. Now we're openly hostile to that (well depending a bit on the shade of skin).

Drake 08-02-2018 10:33 PM
I'm seeing wage stagnation in my sector (education IT), but that doesn't surprise me because we're generally behind the wage curve...and are a bit of a soft landing spot for older IT guys who don't have the desire to keep up with the "latest and greatest" and just keep systems running.

I will say that anecdotally, I hear a lot of what CU Tiger is talking about here in south-central Indiana with regards to the skilled trades (mechanics, body shops, plumbers, electricians). Every time I have work done, the conversation turns to how difficult it is for them to find quality help (i.e., not meth addicts) who are willing to work hard and put in a full day. Some of this is, of course, guys in the 50-65 age range griping about how soft the current generation is...but I hear enough of it that I wonder if there's not a grain of truth in it (that they can't find people, not that kids are softer now than my generation was).

AlexB 08-03-2018 01:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drake (Post 3213451)
I'm seeing wage stagnation in my sector (education IT), but that doesn't surprise me because we're generally behind the wage curve...and are a bit of a soft landing spot for older IT guys who don't have the desire to keep up with the "latest and greatest" and just keep systems running.

I will say that anecdotally, I hear a lot of what CU Tiger is talking about here in south-central Indiana with regards to the skilled trades (mechanics, body shops, plumbers, electricians). Every time I have work done, the conversation turns to how difficult it is for them to find quality help (i.e., not meth addicts) who are willing to work hard and put in a full day. Some of this is, of course, guys in the 50-65 age range griping about how soft the current generation is...but I hear enough of it that I wonder if there's not a grain of truth in it (that they can't find people, not that kids are softer now than my generation was).

From my experience, the kids being softer part is true here too.

Reading the posts I think everyone who posted is right within their own field and experiences. Marc was talking about unskliied workers, CUT was talking about a specific job that requires a certain skill/mindset, you are talking fully skilled, and I see everybody’s projection within the company I work for (we employ unskilled labourers, skilled tradesmen, admin assistants and sales staff which covers most/all of the groups covered.

Aspirations have increased, but expectations as to how live the lives people see on ‘reality TV’ are unrealistic.

Finding people for the unskilled jobs and is easy, finding the right people is really hard

Finding the skilled tradesmen is relatively easy, but they are a declining pool, and I would say that is the only area that I know where wages are rising above the norm.

Finding good dedicated sales staff is not easy at all: the younger generation that traditionally gee up the office and reinvigorate the oldies are soft in general, don’t understand that some things like working all day are not optional
(we recently had a school leaver come in for three days trial, and at 2.30pm on the first day he upped and left saying he thought he had done enough that day, turned up the next day as if that was normal! No apologies, no acknowledgement even! Just one example, and a little extreme, but it is not entirely unrepresentative of the school leavers we see)

Somyes, over here there are jobs, skills write their own cheques to a degree, their is a fluid pool of unskilled labour of questionable quality, but a diminishing pool of young skilled or even willing workers.

PilotMan 08-03-2018 06:42 AM
You know, a lot of our own observations are heavily skewed and influenced by our age and place in life. I mean, right here, on this board, we are almost exclusively 30s-50s, males, we identify with what we know. Our own generational bias comes into play quite heavily. Every single generation thinks that the upcoming generations don't understand what it takes to make it in the world. Every single generation is looked down on.

Even from my own memory, think of how negatively the boomers were looked on. Look at the unrest in the 60's that was primarily due to the boomers coming of age, having grown up in the 50's where things were really good 'for them'. Now between the draft, and culture wars, they were expressing themselves as young adults. Think that the older generations thought they were awesome?

Now, Gen X. In the 80's it was nothing about how lazy and blase they were.

Millennials. Same thing. They are the tech kids who don't understand how the 'real' world works.

Gen Z. The newest to hit the job force. Totally self serving with expectations that they should get everything handed to them (just like the boomers, imo).

It's the same story. It never ends. It's simply the lens in which one looks at the world though.

PilotMan 08-03-2018 06:49 AM
In t-dumb land. I think he's finally crossed the line where the public is totally numb to his antics. They have are burned out from him. He has flooded the landscape for the last 19 months with so much bullshit that it's impossible to give each of it the focus it deserves. So instead, he gets away with it. I mean, look at our own discussions here. We digress into these side topics without really talking about stories like, trump has loaded the seats on the wildlife protection bureau with avid game hunters and personal loyalists. So much that they are suing him for not following the charter, where it says that the 17 member panel has to be bipartisan. The list is too long to ignore all of it, but the public can't find it's way through all the bs to know what is right. Instead, we're talking about the q-anon whackjobs as if they are the real deal. This is where the conversation on trump is failing.

Marc Vaughan 08-03-2018 09:25 AM
Quote:
This is where the conversation on trump is failing.
I think the problem is that people have realised that their outrage has no effect - millions might march and protest, but if he simply lies about things and ignores them then after a while people feel there is little they can do.

I hope that the next round of elections and voting will be enough to derail his train - but in all honesty I'm not hopeful.

Drake 08-03-2018 11:37 AM
I'm waiting for a liberal populist ideologue to emerge for 2020 who will use the same tactics so the conservatives on my feed can resume their "Wake up, sheeple!" ranting.

Thomkal 08-03-2018 01:12 PM
Evan Rosenfeld‏Verified account @Evan_Rosenfeld









BREAKING: The National Rifle Association (@NRA) warns that it is in grave financial jeopardy, according to a recent court filing obtained by Rolling Stone, and that it could soon “be unable to exist… or pursue its advocacy mission.”

BYU 14 08-03-2018 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3213494)
Evan Rosenfeld‏Verified account @Evan_Rosenfeld









BREAKING: The National Rifle Association (@NRA) warns that it is in grave financial jeopardy, according to a recent court filing obtained by Rolling Stone, and that it could soon “be unable to exist… or pursue its advocacy mission.”

What a crock of shit, just fear mongering to distract and soak it's supporters for money.

RainMaker 08-03-2018 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CU Tiger (Post 3213405)
Universally we are paying more than ever. And cant get applicants.

Sounds like you are not paying enough.

PilotMan 08-03-2018 01:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3213498)
What a crock of shit, just fear mongering to distract and soak it's supporters for money.


Yep, funny how this comes a day after the news breaks that ActBlue raised a billion. ActBlue also raises funds for Everytown, which is starting to get a nice head of steam as it grows and becomes a voice of opposition to the NRA.

albionmoonlight 08-03-2018 01:56 PM
I mean, the NRA might go away. The organization has ties to dirty Russian money. But it will just be a rebranding. If the NRA name ends up being too toxic, it will just do like Blackwater and change its name.

Brian Swartz 08-03-2018 02:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RainMaker
statistics point to real wages being more or less stagnant since the 80's while the economy has boomed. Purchasing power has gone down.

This is true as far as it goes, but also misses a very important point; that being that the total value of compensation has still increased quite significantly. Heath care insurance, most of which is usually paid for by the employer, has increased in cost much faster than inflation leading to this situation. Given that, I think it's more accurate to place the blame for the situation not on companies but on escalating expectations of and prices for health care - and also to look to that area for solutions. If that were solved in some manner and we still saw stagnation for another 15-20 years? Then we'd need to look elsewhere.

JPhillips 08-03-2018 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3213504)
I mean, the NRA might go away. The organization has ties to dirty Russian money. But it will just be a rebranding. If the NRA name ends up being too toxic, it will just do like Blackwater and change its name.

This. It's like a Turkish rug place. They'll go out of business and by sheer coincidence the Rifle Association of America will rise in its place.

larrymcg421 08-03-2018 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drake (Post 3213483)
I'm waiting for a liberal populist ideologue to emerge for 2020 who will use the same tactics so the conservatives on my feed can resume their "Wake up, sheeple!" ranting.

This is where panerd says that we already had that from 2008-16.

Thomkal 08-03-2018 06:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BYU 14 (Post 3213498)
What a crock of shit, just fear mongering to distract and soak it's supporters for money.


Of course it has nothing to do with them suing the state of NY for blacklisting it:


National Rifle Association says it faces financial jeopardy in court filing

Thomkal 08-03-2018 06:35 PM
Not a good day for Trump in court-one judge said the administration's efforts to reunite children taken at the border was unacceptable, and they are 100% responsible for reuniting them:


http://thehill.com/latino/400338-jud...grant-families



And another judge today said Trump must fully restore DACA:



http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...mpression=true

JPhillips 08-03-2018 08:08 PM
From WaPo:

Quote:
Pompeo: “The ultimate timeline for denuclearization will be set by Chairman Kim, at least in part. The decision is his.”

Thomkal 08-03-2018 09:25 PM
Man i bet Chairman Kim is feeling a lot of pressure now. :::rolls eyes:::

stevew 08-03-2018 10:52 PM
So Saudi Arabia and UAE were getting ready to invade Qatar supposedly. And it's not even a big deal with all the other crazy nonsense going on.

bronconick 08-04-2018 11:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevew (Post 3213532)
So Saudi Arabia and UAE were getting ready to invade Qatar supposedly. And it's not even a big deal with all the other crazy nonsense going on.

Can we move the World Cup then?

jct32 08-04-2018 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevew (Post 3213532)
So Saudi Arabia and UAE were getting ready to invade Qatar supposedly. And it's not even a big deal with all the other crazy nonsense going on.

I thought they were fighting in Yemen?

stevew 08-04-2018 12:41 PM
Also Trump refer to LeBron as not very bright, even though LeBron's kids will actually get to go to a real school vs ripping people off with Trump University

stevew 08-04-2018 12:41 PM
LeBron's kids meaning all the students that signed up for his Scott's tots type program in Akron

stevew 08-04-2018 12:44 PM
Shortly before midnight, Trump shot back: "Lebron James was just interviewed by the dumbest man on television, Don Lemon. He made Lebron look smart, which isn't easy to do."

mckerney 08-04-2018 12:50 PM
Maxine Waters is low IQ
Don Lemon is the dumbest man on TV
It's not easy to make LeBron look smart in comparison

I wonder what it is that could possibly have Trump insulting the intelligence of those three.

NobodyHere 08-04-2018 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 3213570)
Maxine Waters is low IQ
Don Lemon is the dumbest man on TV
It's not easy to make LeBron look smart in comparison

I wonder what it is that could possibly have Trump insulting the intelligence of those three.

They oppose his policies?

RainMaker 08-04-2018 01:41 PM
Lebron fits the mold of two things he hates. People who are self-made and people who are black.

stevew 08-04-2018 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 3213570)
Maxine Waters is low IQ
Don Lemon is the dumbest man on TV
It's not easy to make LeBron look smart in comparison

I wonder what it is that could possibly have Trump insulting the intelligence of those three.

They all have bigger hands?

Groundhog 08-04-2018 05:35 PM
I'm enjoying some of the mental gymnastics in the comments of other NBA player's tweets today re: supporting LBJ/slamming Trump: "You're my favourite player, but please don't tweet about Mr President...."

Thomkal 08-04-2018 07:24 PM
According to the Washington Post, Trump now believes his son may have accidentally broke the law

Galaril 08-04-2018 07:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3213571)
They oppose his policies?

I assume this is sarcasm?!

JonInMiddleGA 08-04-2018 08:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mckerney (Post 3213570)
I wonder what it is that could possibly have Trump insulting the intelligence of those three.

All three are complete nutjobs with IQs below freezing and being quite literally worse than useless since they haven't been put away for their batshittiness?

I mean, that's pretty much plenty.

Groundhog 08-04-2018 08:39 PM
Heard a lot of people say a lot of things about LeBron James over the years, but nutjob/low IQ is new.

Brian Swartz 08-04-2018 08:52 PM
Nothing says IQ below freezing like having a photographic memory. I know that's the first ability that comes to mind when I think of complete morons.


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