Say what you will about Trump but he has charisma. Seriously watch Musk speak at some of these rallies. It's really difficult to watch.

Musk speaking is painful and cringe to watch. It's like an incel that just discovered the internet was given a platform.

And Trump definitely has charisma. DeSantis has zero and his mistake was not attacking Trump hard enough. You're not going to convince anyone to vote for you by telling everyone how great of a job your opponent did. The only thing DeSantis used to try to separate himself from Trump was covid, which Trump supporters don't care about.

No chance for DeSantis to be chosen as VP either. Trump wasn't going to choose anyone that likes the spotlight and would take attention away from him. I think DeSantis is done as a politician outside of Florida. He was exposed.

Trump wants to put Herschel Walker in charge of a theoretical US Iron Dome.

Jon Ralston made his prediction. He says Harris wins Nevada by .3%, and Sen. Rosen (D) will keep her Senate seat.

I keep hearing the tell-tale on this election will be the late breakers are going Harris by an 8 point margin. Some will say it was the MSG rally, some will say it was the people holding out because of Gaza realizing Trump would be worse not just for Gaza but for them personally. I think that it is mostly that people were holding out because they are mad about inflation, but in the end they just can't stand Trump.

I want to trade Trump for 3 future Presidents and 3 future Vice Presidents.

Does he not know Walker played on offense?

Our washing machine is broken, and it is taking a bit to fix so I am at the laundromat right now. And I realize just how many political ads I managed to miss this season thanks to cord cutting. It is like I am in some circle of purgatory right now with a bad daytime TV show on interrupted by literally nothing but political ads.

Isn't that the best defense?

Went to the dentist today, and I usually have a bit of anxiety over it, but in the waiting room was a guy wearing a Trump shirt, hat, etc. So I was very happy to get called right away so I didn't have to look at him while I waited. :)

He's got the C-team managing this campaign, it's why there's no strategy, no message discipline and zero desire to appeal to anyone in the middle. It's implosion, but when you're surrounded by devotees and your own media apparatuses, it's hard to imagine anything than your own reality.

If Trump wins it will mean the end of in-person campaign staff. Everything will just be endless automated texts and mailers.

And believe or not, the judge ruled in favor of Elon.

I mean rich people don't have to follow the laws but if it's not a lottery, isn't it just a scam since he came out and said it was a lottery? Seems like you can't have it both ways.

I don't usually buy that some last week shift causes someone to lose an election. But you may be right on it this election.

There were some absurdly long lines at our local polling place today and you never see that here. We don't even have a competitive race to vote in. I've had 2 people who weren't planning to vote say they were just because they can't stand Elon.

It just makes me wonder if there were a bunch of people who were planning to sit this out because they dislike both candidates who decided to vote because the Trump campaign has been throwing the most unlikable people out there every day for the past week. Almost just voting out of spite.

It also helps to explain the Selzer and Times/Sienna last polls' movement toward Harris. They might be capturing, in a couple of the last polls, that late-breaking movement. Unless those polls are completely out of whack, that's as good an explanation as any.

I still don't see how tying to registering to vote and being a partisan PAC doesn't doesn't make it illegal under election laws. To me, it's not random and we're choosing people to work for us for a $1 million salary is worse than random.

People been saying a while it is the young people who will bring it home for the dems but Iowa shows it actually may be older women who remember the fight for Roe and don't want their kids and grandkids going back 50 years.

Today's GOP is fundamentally the same one birthed by Newt & his "Contract with America" cronies in 1994. The only thing that's changed over the past 30 years is a) the filter's been stripped away with the help of more media outlets including social media and b) national candidates who were willing and able to present a less populist image (the "good ones" above), have aged out or been driven away.


The other explanation I've heard is that most polls are "herding" in order to give themselves plausible denial for whatever result happens and the outliers like Selzer & Times/Sienna aren't.

Well, we'll find out soon. Maybe next week when they finally finish counting in Wisconsin.

Unless Trump finds a 5th circuit judge to put a halt to counting at 11:59 Tuesday night.

The good news in Georgia is that they now they will be allowed to recount the mail in ballots and should have the numbers to report at 8pm. I think we might have a good idea on Georgia early.

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Watching Fox5 from PA. Anchor talking with her Fox counterparts in the battleground states. They are doing a good job, no political opinions but more about what they’re seeing on the ground, early voting etc.

No rah rah BS. No one said Trump was running away with it, all cautiously balanced.

That's also why I think he's won no matter how the elections pan out. He controls both parties now. Republicans are the same party but without the filter. And that might seem minor but a lot of Republicans hated that filter. That left a void which Democrats have slid into by shifting far to the right on most issues (pro-war, anti-immigration, economic nationalism, etc).

There are differences on some social issues, but it's kind of become a uniparty, which is what the donors have always wanted. One that has the filter and one that doesn't. Donors win either way. It'll be a fascinating time in America to look back on for political scientists I'm sure.

Trump's former field director for Western PA:

Joe Rogan just formally endorsed Trump and mostly credited Elon Musk for convincing him. Thus proving douche nozzles come in packs.

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I have called my mom a single issue, anti-abortion voter, before. She voted for trump in 16, but voted against him in both 20 and 24. Her reasoning is that she simply can't stand him, and can't see how her super evangelical friends can stand by and support him after everything.

My mom is a very low information voter. She doesn't know much about Trump other than what her facebook feed shows her. She continues to support him and posts the "I'm voting for the felon" shit and other stuff she sees.

She once asked me what I thought of Trump and I told her. That's the only time she's ever mentioned him to me. WV is as Trumpy as it gets so she's surrounded in a bubble of people that vote against their own interests. The GOP has been running the state for nearly 30 years and over those 30 years it's progressively gone downhill in every measurable way but they're all in for Trump and blame dems for all of their problems.

Are WVians generally self-aware? Like, are they cognizant of how a lot residents of other states view the state?

(I assume they all regard us as communists, fwiw)

Wish my super evangelical parents were like your mom.

David Plouffe just said on CNN that according to their data, Harris could win all 7 battleground states. From his mouth to God's ear.

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Absolutely and it's something they're very self conscious of yet at every opportunity they make sure to reinforce stereotypes.

It's always going to be home for me but at this stage of my life it's going to be home from a great distance. The state legislature spent a ton of time and resources debating the right for people to buy raw milk. They're also focused on trans rights (or taking them away) because one middle school girl is trans and competes in track.

I don't know how connected it is to all of the culture war stuff, but I was at a conference a few weeks ago and there was one panel with 2 people from WV on it. One a former defense attorney-turned-lobbyist, and the other a former state legislator. The talked about how badly the WV Supreme Court in the 90s killed business interests with a bunch of pro-plaintiff rulings and how that allowed business interests (read: the GOP) to get citizens to help reshape the court and the legislature and open WV up for business again. And the final axe was a series of major scandals that took down several SC judges within the past decade.

West Virginia is the only state that has lost population over the past 30-40 years and has had between 1.7M and 2.0M people since 1940: List of U.S. states and territories by historical population - Wikipedia

It's kind of wild to look at like 1940 or 50 and see the list of states that had a lower population than WV during WW2 (Maryland, Florida, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, Connecticut, etc.). We have had literally negative growth while some of these states have tripled, quadrupled, or more in population.

The state is just so homogenous (white, Western European) and there has never been any kind of economic boom or event that has ever attracted a diversified population, so it is really socially conservative and people don't like or trust the federal government, despite how dependent on welfare a lot of the population is (high number of disabled folks, high level of medicaid/medicare, lots of foster families, etc.).

How did JD Vance saying Boyz in the Hood shaped his political worldview not blow up?

T-0 ...

Light at the end of the tunnel. Hoping for a clear decision by tonight/morning but likely drag along for several weeks for contested BS in 1-2 battleground states.

Either way, approx. 50% of the country will be vindicated soon, the other 50% will know it was all hopium.

In a perfect world, I'd go with a Dem sweep for Presidency, House and Senate in that order of priority (... and I'd like to see how well Jeffries handles the madhouse). This will give Kamala all the leverage she theoretically needs to do her stuff.


... and in 2028 I'm ready for a palatable GOP Presidential candidate that I can consider vs writing off right away.

If Trump loses what are the odds he runs again in 28? 50/50?

Trump's age + 2 time loser will eliminate him from serious consideration. I can see him influencing the selection of a GOP candidate, but not himself.

Plus he won't be able to use his I am a candidate for President you can't put me in jail argument-his trials are going to go forward now if he loses so all of America can see the evidence against him. If the results from this election are Democrats winning/make it a lot closer in red states, America is pretty much showing that they don't want him to ever run again.



If that happens I think Trump's sons might try to claim the MAGA name and try to make a run for President

Replace your first line with Jan 6th and we were in the same place 4 years ago. I wouldn’t rule out anything with this cult the GOP has become

What are the odds that he would intend to run again in 2028? Probably close to 100%. However, I suspect the most likely scenario is that he's prevented by severe/undeniable cognitive and/or physical decline, or even natural death. I'll be extremely surprised if he's still a public figure three years from now, let alone a Presidential candidate physically and mentally capable of doing rallies/interviews/etc.


EDIT: But if he loses and I'm wrong about the decline, I can't imagine anyone in GOP "leadership" having the guts to even attempt to organize a movement to nominate someone else. If he's lucid and can get around, I don't see why he wouldn't win another nomination...almost by default.

So where does that leave the party? If he claims he is running again they have shown none of them have the courage to speak out against it. If they did we would be talking about Nikki Haley is about to be the first woman president.

Barring death, prison, or severe disability they are chained to him for as long as he walks upright.

Ha. Yeah, I did my edit before I saw this. I didn't mention the prison option because I am FAR from believing that anyone has the stomach to give him a significant prison sentence, and of course a light one where he's out before the primaries pretty much clinches the nomination for him assuming he gets out upright and lucid.

If Harris wins the first thing she should do is replace Garland with someone who has a spine

Eh, depending on the winner, 50% of the country will believe it was rigged/stolen.

My boss and his wife went to vote at 6am this morning. They live in a rural area outside Louisville. He lives in a pretty high-end area (they are in the same neighborhood as a high profile local MAGA pastor at a megachurch), but otherwise, it's farmland. He said it was obvious the other 4 or 5 dozen people in line were all Trump supporters, and he said to his wife, "I bet we're the only ones here voting for Harris." Dude in front of him turned around, and without cracking a smile, said, "That's OK, I'm going to vote at another 15 precincts today to even the score."

These people have absolutely lost their minds.

That is complete nonsense.

Dicksville Notch went 3-3. In 2020 it went 5-0 for Biden. This strangely makes me very worried.

I had managed to avoid any issues during this campaign, because I have understanding friends that can have a political conversation with respect.

This morning at the gym, the husband in one of our closest couple relationships and I got into an extremely heated argument, to where his wife just walked away (mine was not there) He came out with over the top stuff about how democrats were already cheating everywhere (I dismissed that with that's not true, you're getting mislead) and were going to censor free speech (I reminded him that fact checking bullshit was not censorship) then he goes to J6 not being an insurrection and it escalated from there.

We are good now, but my gawd, homeboy has been out of work and all he does is go down online rabbit holes now. It's sad!

cowboy up

I'm generally with Ben's analysis on what happens to the GOP if Trump loses, in that I don't see him running in 2028 mainly due to age & cognitive decline.

As long as he's able to tweet and do rallies and get media coverage, though, he's still going to control the Republican Party. There's a hard core of support for him that the party needs to win a lot of their elections. We've seen numerous times that when he's soured on a candidate who is in a contested election with a Democrat, it saps just enough of the vote to sink the candidate. That's the power, specifically. They'll have to keep kow-towing to him or risk this. Plus, there's the situation where the RNC has been replaced by his loyalists, including family.

So, he's going to have to lose, and then die (or decline to the point where he's no longer in public life at all) for the GOP to get its party back. And since literally no one has been able to take up his mantle, I think we can safely assume that no one will.

Thus, I really do think this election is a pretty serious inflection point (warning: a lot of you are going to think this is hyperbole).

If Trump wins, the further-emboldened GOP will continue to go forward with the various voting restrictions they've been tabling in various states (difficult ID requirements, making legislatures decide winners, etc...) with the end result being that it will be functionally impossible for the Democratic Party to win the EC or Senate. Don't think there aren't operators in Trump's orbit for whom this is absolutely the goal.

If Harris wins, the GOP has a real possibility of being out in the wilderness for a while, as first Trump continues to exert control over the party while still more stop voting for the party, and then second after he leaves the stage various factions vie for control. The Democrats in this situation would have a golden opportunity to put in place safeguards for democratic processes to ensure this kind of situation wouldn't happen again. They'll probably fumble it. But maybe at that point demographics would save us.

What's your alternative take, then?

Reagan was the GOP's first populist President. Gingrich's CoA formalised populism into a legislative plan. Trump and today's GOP is the end-stage of that populism, with all that requires and implies. This isn't rocket science.