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-   -   POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=99329)

NobodyHere 11-02-2024 04:39 PM

You know what's more annoying than political ads? Political ads that are for races you can't vote in. I live in Ohio, why am I seeing political ads for a race in Texas!

henry296 11-02-2024 04:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3447301)
You know what's more annoying than political ads? Political ads that are for races you can't vote in. I live in Ohio, why am I seeing political ads for a race in Texas!


Are you watching a sporting event with a team from Texas?

JPhillips 11-02-2024 05:27 PM

RFK Jr. said that if Trump wins they'll advise cities to stop adding fluoride to water.

Dr. Strangelove predicts the Trump admin.

NobodyHere 11-02-2024 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry296 (Post 3447302)
Are you watching a sporting event with a team from Texas?


Yes, but it is on a local station

Jas_lov 11-02-2024 06:04 PM

Oh my God. Selzer poll of Iowa has Harris up 47-44. I thought Harris would be doing better than the Trump +8 2020 result based on what I'd seen in the suburbs but not that much better! Selzer is considered a really good pollster who doesn't herd. She must see something in her numbers showing Trump struggling here. Could be struggling in other parts of the upper midwest too.

JPhillips 11-02-2024 06:06 PM

I just can't imagine Harris winning in Iowa, but it's probably not 11 points off, so she's on track to at least do better than Biden. That bodes well nationally.

RainMaker 11-02-2024 06:07 PM

I absolutely don't see her winning Iowa but if Iowa is even close, she's winning the election.

Jas_lov 11-02-2024 06:15 PM

Yeah, I think it'd be crazy if she won here. Biden got 45 in 2020 so anything above that would be amazing. This is a state that has moved right since 2020 if anything so who knows.There have been recent polls of Ohio and Kansas that show those a lot closer so maybe Trump is in worse shape than we think and battleground pollsters are herding. That's my hope anyway.

JPhillips 11-02-2024 06:15 PM

I'm expecting not to like a lot of a Harris presidency, but a big win would put a stake through Trumpism and that would be very beneficial for the country.

QuikSand 11-02-2024 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3447303)
RFK Jr. said that if Trump wins they'll advise cities to stop adding fluoride to water.

Dr. Strangelove predicts the Trump admin.


The thing is... this could be the logical direction after what we have seen about vaccinations. What started with anger over mask mandates and the like turned into anger over covid vaccine mandates, and then over the covid vaccines themselves, and now (as this has made people feel really good about being "independent" and "doing their own research") there's a whole demographic who are basically rejecting the entire concept of vaccinations for anything. We're going to see completely avoidable spikes in measles and worse as communities dense with redpilled or otherwise susceptible residents follow along with the claptrap they read on facebook, and hear from these "leaders" on their chosen television sources. And perhaps from their White House.

Play it forward. Fluorine in the water? Conspiracy. Alabama shuts it down. Massachusetts keeps theirs going. Liberal places tax sugary beverages, ban kid-focused advertising for nicotine products, educate kids on safe sex practices, improve standards for school lunch nutrition, and so forth... conservative places just don't. How many more things could fall the same way?

The whole increasingly polarized country can turn into a public health A/B test in real time, on a scale that nobody could set up as a study within ethical boundaries.

Swaggs 11-02-2024 06:39 PM

Selzer poll has to be alarming for Trump and his team. I imagine the Dems would have taken anything closer than the 2020 margin (Trump 53 to Biden 45) as a good sign that the gap had closed, but Kamala +3 is pretty hard to believe.

On election night, I will be watching my county here in WV. Every county in WV went for Trump in 2020, but mine was 20,803 to 20,282 (49.4 to 48.2). I noticed 4 or 5 Harris signs on Halloween night while we were out with the kids and no Trump signs, where in 2020 there were no Biden signs and 2-3 Trump signs. I think my county will probably flip blue and should be a pretty good early bellwether with it having been so close before. State polls close at 7:30 PM and are usually reported upon pretty quickly. The state will immediately be called for Trump, but it will be interesting to see if the county flips.

thesloppy 11-02-2024 06:47 PM

Portland doesn't flouridate their water and never has as far as I know. Dentists immediately know when you grew up out of state.

GrantDawg 11-02-2024 07:08 PM

Cross tabs on the Iowa poll? It's the women. Women across all ages. +20% Harris.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

Atocep 11-02-2024 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3447318)

The whole increasingly polarized country can turn into a public health A/B test in real time, on a scale that nobody could set up as a study within ethical boundaries.



We're kind of already there.

The states with the highest infant mortality rates are: Mississippi, South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisiana, Indiana, and Georgia.

The states with the highest rate of heart disease are: Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky.

States with highest obesity rates: West Virginia, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Tennessee.

States with highest death rates from Flu: Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, West Virginia, Arkansas.

And so on and so on.

Thomkal 11-02-2024 07:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jas_lov (Post 3447309)
Oh my God. Selzer poll of Iowa has Harris up 47-44. I thought Harris would be doing better than the Trump +8 2020 result based on what I'd seen in the suburbs but not that much better! Selzer is considered a really good pollster who doesn't herd. She must see something in her numbers showing Trump struggling here. Could be struggling in other parts of the upper midwest too.



wow

albionmoonlight 11-02-2024 07:23 PM

Selzer poll is jaw dropping news

larrymcg421 11-02-2024 07:29 PM

That Iowa poll put Harris up to .56 on PredictIt.

GrantDawg 11-02-2024 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3447326)
Selzer poll is jaw dropping news


This is THE poll as well.


Ben E Lou 11-02-2024 07:41 PM

What’s the squirrel/raccoon foolishness I keep seeing?

cuervo72 11-02-2024 07:44 PM

Guy in rural NY saves baby squirrel, tries to set free, squirrel comes back (injured). Man keeps squirrel as pet for eight years, makes him an instagram. Guy recently rescues raccoon. Neighbors report man, wildlife service raids home, takes raccoon and squirrel, euthanizes them.

GrantDawg 11-02-2024 07:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3447329)
What’s the squirrel/raccoon foolishness I keep seeing?

Guy rescued both in New York, where having them as pets are illegal. They had a big following online. The state ended up taking them and putting them down.

Thomkal 11-02-2024 07:49 PM

And the hits keep coming-there were rumors of a big story that would hit before the election-here it is. Daily Beast has a story and recording from Jeffrey Epstein that says Donald is one of his closest friends and describes a bunch of stuff he did with him.


x.com

JPhillips 11-02-2024 07:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3447318)
The thing is... this could be the logical direction after what we have seen about vaccinations. What started with anger over mask mandates and the like turned into anger over covid vaccine mandates, and then over the covid vaccines themselves, and now (as this has made people feel really good about being "independent" and "doing their own research") there's a whole demographic who are basically rejecting the entire concept of vaccinations for anything. We're going to see completely avoidable spikes in measles and worse as communities dense with redpilled or otherwise susceptible residents follow along with the claptrap they read on facebook, and hear from these "leaders" on their chosen television sources. And perhaps from their White House.

Play it forward. Fluorine in the water? Conspiracy. Alabama shuts it down. Massachusetts keeps theirs going. Liberal places tax sugary beverages, ban kid-focused advertising for nicotine products, educate kids on safe sex practices, improve standards for school lunch nutrition, and so forth... conservative places just don't. How many more things could fall the same way?

The whole increasingly polarized country can turn into a public health A/B test in real time, on a scale that nobody could set up as a study within ethical boundaries.


And the disparity in outcomes will be used as proof that the elites don't like the people in red states.

RainMaker 11-02-2024 08:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3447328)
This is THE poll as well.



This election might just be as simple as Dobbs really pissed off women.


NobodyHere 11-02-2024 08:07 PM

I;m going to hate myself for it but I will probably vote for Harris on Tuesday only because Trump is such a douche.

Brian Swartz 11-02-2024 08:09 PM

That's more or less my reasoning. I hope the Selzer stuff is representative. It will almost certainly be the last time I vote D for a long time, but it's a narrowly better choice than voting third-party this time in my estimation.

Brian Swartz 11-02-2024 08:23 PM

The other thing is, if the race goes the way you would expect from what ... I don't know, do we call it the 'Selzer Shift' or somesuch if you extrapolate nationally ... the rest of the pollsters are going to have destroyed their credibility. That would be massively worse than any of the other slightly off outlooks in past cycles.

cartman 11-02-2024 08:29 PM

So Trump performed a blowjob on the microphone at his rally in Milwaukee today

Swaggs 11-02-2024 08:31 PM

Nate Silver is certainly hedging.

He has been talking about how improbable it would be for all 7 swing states to be within 1% and said it would be something like 1 in 9.5 trillion for it to happen.

Now he has an easy out to extend his 15 minutes for another 4-years because he can blame the pollsters for his magical model being off.

Edward64 11-02-2024 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3447338)
I;m going to hate myself for it but I will probably vote for Harris on Tuesday only because Trump is such a douche.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3447340)
That's more or less my reasoning. I hope the Selzer stuff is representative. It will almost certainly be the last time I vote D for a long time, but it's a narrowly better choice than voting third-party this time in my estimation.


Happy that you both decided not to vote 3rd party this time around.

Lathum 11-02-2024 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jas_lov (Post 3447314)
Yeah, I think it'd be crazy if she won here. Biden got 45 in 2020 so anything above that would be amazing. This is a state that has moved right since 2020 if anything so who knows.There have been recent polls of Ohio and Kansas that show those a lot closer so maybe Trump is in worse shape than we think and battleground pollsters are herding. That's my hope anyway.


A large portion of the state may remember how disastrous Trumps tariffs were the first time around and are like, nah, fuck that shit, this time around.

PilotMan 11-02-2024 09:18 PM

KY will still go for trump, but in my area, which is more balanced, but still more R, there's far lower trump energy than 16 or 20. We voted. I know my home was 4 votes for Harris.

Ksyrup 11-02-2024 09:20 PM

I've to stay out of this thread. You guys are making me feel ... hopeful? I don't like this feeling.

I might need to counteract it with a healthy dose of Swallow the Sun tonight and the next couple of nights to put me back into a proper depressed mood so that I'm ready for Tuesday night.

NobodyHere 11-02-2024 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3447359)
I've to stay out of this thread. You guys are making me feel ... hopeful? I don't like this feeling.

I might need to counteract it with a healthy dose of Swallow the Sun tonight and the next couple of nights to put me back into a proper depressed mood so that I'm ready for Tuesday night.


Just remember we're just a couple of members of a forum that leans a certain way.

It's just like the way that you thought Firefly was the greatest show ever yet it got canceled.

Ksyrup 11-02-2024 09:35 PM

Do what now?

Thomkal 11-02-2024 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3447359)
I've to stay out of this thread. You guys are making me feel ... hopeful? I don't like this feeling.

I might need to counteract it with a healthy dose of Swallow the Sun tonight and the next couple of nights to put me back into a proper depressed mood so that I'm ready for Tuesday night.



Ha, I've not been commenting on a lot of people's replies here recently because it was just stressing me out too much.

Atocep 11-02-2024 11:00 PM

If Trump loses there's going to be a lot of focus on that MSG rally. It served absolutely no purpose electorally and was done to feed his own ego. He's always wanted do to something at MSG and had the chance.

One crazy thing about that rally that I think is somewhat overlooked is we have a former president, running for reelection, days away from election day, having a campaign rally at one of the most prestigious venues in the country, and not a single politician of any merit showed up to support him. That's why he ended up having Tony Hinchcliffe, Rudy Giuliani, Sid Rosenberg, and Grant Cardone speaking.

RainMaker 11-02-2024 11:07 PM

If the theory is that the pollsters are all herding in the swing states to not underestimate Trump again, looking at non-competitive states might be more valuable where they aren't herding. There have been some interesting polls like Trump only up 3% in Ohio and 5% in Kansas. I doubt they'll be that close but it does show that she might be performing much better than people thought.

If she does win, there will be talk of MSG and a bunch of other stuff. I still think it comes down to Dobbs. It's an incredibly unpopular decision and people who lose rights tend to be quite motivated. And I wonder if a woman on the ticket as opposed to Biden who wasn't exactly a champion of women's rights provided an added boost. Doesn't hurt that Trump went with Vance who has a lot of creepy things to say about women.

RainMaker 11-02-2024 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal (Post 3447334)
And the hits keep coming-there were rumors of a big story that would hit before the election-here it is. Daily Beast has a story and recording from Jeffrey Epstein that says Donald is one of his closest friends and describes a bunch of stuff he did with him.

x.com


This stuff should be huge news but Dems can't run with it because of their Clinton idoltry and the media has mostly just treated Epstein as a mystery that can't be reported on anymore. One day it'd be nice to know who was all involved and what in the fuck was Epstein's deal. Like how did this loser get all that money and connections to powerful people? Was he blackmailing people? Was he a CIA asset? I feel crazy for thinking this should have been a much bigger story.

whomario 11-03-2024 01:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3447373)
If the theory is that the pollsters are all herding in the swing states to not underestimate Trump again, looking at non-competitive states might be more valuable where they aren't herding. There have been some interesting polls like Trump only up 3% in Ohio and 5% in Kansas. I doubt they'll be that close but it does show that she might be performing much better than people thought.

If she does win, there will be talk of MSG and a bunch of other stuff. I still think it comes down to Dobbs. It's an incredibly unpopular decision and people who lose rights tend to be quite motivated. And I wonder if a woman on the ticket as opposed to Biden who wasn't exactly a champion of women's rights provided an added boost. Doesn't hurt that Trump went with Vance who has a lot of creepy things to say about women.


It's definitely a factor. Vance is also not at all popular in Ohio and surrounding states from what i recall. (and yeah, Iowa has a near total abortion ban now that is not popular).

Thomkal 11-03-2024 06:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3447374)
This stuff should be huge news but Dems can't run with it because of their Clinton idoltry and the media has mostly just treated Epstein as a mystery that can't be reported on anymore. One day it'd be nice to know who was all involved and what in the fuck was Epstein's deal. Like how did this loser get all that money and connections to powerful people? Was he blackmailing people? Was he a CIA asset? I feel crazy for thinking this should have been a much bigger story.



The difference being if similar news came out about Bill Clinton they would have dropped him from any rally/get our the vote effort. Pedofiles/adultry the way it has been described with Trump, just never would have been allowed in a Party so strongly into woman's rights as they are now. I think what Clinton did with Lewisnsky in the White House should have been enough for him to resign out of embarassment, and it should have been enough to isolate him from the Party in case stories like this came out about him.

cartman 11-03-2024 06:51 AM

The cameraman at Trump's livestream must have found out the campaign wasn't going to pay the bill.

https://www.threads.net/@jklappenbach/post/DB5eE7ctkup

GrantDawg 11-03-2024 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 3447380)
The cameraman at Trump's livestream must have found out the campaign wasn't going to pay the bill.

https://www.threads.net/@jklappenbach/post/DB5eE7ctkup



Fascinating how loyal and devoted so many of his followers are, but the people closest to him just hate him.

BYU 14 11-03-2024 10:21 AM

Props to whoever did this, LOL, though Vance will explain he used real time AI to makes the seats look empty. Then they will throw him on the people to imprison list.

flere-imsaho 11-03-2024 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3447328)
This is THE poll as well.



So, the Selzer poll can be off by 5 points, which puts Trump at 49 and Harris at 42, much more in line with expectations.

whomario 11-03-2024 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 3447389)
So, the Selzer poll can be off by 5 points, which puts Trump at 49 and Harris at 42, much more in line with expectations.


Nah, what you describe is a 10 point swing, not a 5 point one. (47-45 or 46-44 Trump would be the equivalent to this single 5 point discrepancy)

Lathum 11-03-2024 10:55 AM

He won Iowa by 9 in 2020. Even a 4 or 5 point win in Iowa is a bad sign for him

Ksyrup 11-03-2024 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whomario (Post 3447390)
Nah, what you describe is a 10 point swing, not a 5 point one. (47-45 or 46-44 Trump would be the equivalent to this single 5 point discrepancy)


Is this is the political equivalent to the argumemt over what it means to be X number of games under .500? :D

JPhillips 11-03-2024 12:27 PM

Selzer's congressional polling is also a disaster for the GOP.

Quote:

(All four seats currently held by GOP)

Iowa’s 1st Congressional District

D Christina Bohannan - 53%
R Mariannette Miller-Meeks - 37%

Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District

R Ashley Hinson - 45%
D Sarah Corkery - 42%

Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District

D Lanon Baccum - 48%
R Zach Nunn - 41%

Iowa’s 4th Congressional District

R Randy Feenstra - 53%
D Ryan Melton - 37%

Ben E Lou 11-03-2024 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cartman (Post 3447380)
The cameraman at Trump's livestream must have found out the campaign wasn't going to pay the bill.

https://www.threads.net/@jklappenbach/post/DB5eE7ctkup

Little ol' Greensboro keeps having newsworthy stuff in this campaign. :p



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