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True, the game is fairly new, and most did not deduce that, but I did not think Airhog would play to die. I think he was hoping some of us villagers would not vote for him, and try to figure out (possibly by the speed and rapidity of those voting for his death) someone from that six to accuse. Thus the reasoning he had for accusing Taz, who's only fault was being paranoid enough to accuse him first. Never directly accuse nobility, ever. But once the idea that he could be duke was brought up, votes didn't change, the train was on it's way, the mob was being whipped into frenzy. And the wolves just smiled and placed their picks on Airhog, because everyone was doing it, except two, and one of those is dead now. The wolves won another round, shame on us villagers. |
The benefit of eating Airhog is that he is definitely not a wolf supporter. So basically he's risk free. Of course the wolves probably know that he's an obvious target for the bodyguard and/or doctor, so that might change things.
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After reading over the roles again, I am intrigued over a few of them.
The Sorcerer may be trying to "out" the Seer right now or the Seer may be trying to "out" the werewolf right now, but it's 50/50 that we lynch the right (or wrong) person. Kind of sticky. |
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The wolves didn't win the round, Airhog wanted to be lynched so he could kill what he thought was a wolf. He got what he wanted. I think his strategy was executed prematurely, but how would you have decided to lynch someone else? There is no evidence pointing to anyone right now. It was brought up fairly early in the dialogue that he might be the duke, but in the end, I would have voted for him Duke or wolf, over the near given of killing another innocent. I figured he had some insight, which obviously wasn't the case. |
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Why? Why waste your attacks on someone that is no longer a threat, he's outed, he's used his get out of hanging free card. In fact, Airhog /helped/ the wolves by killing a hapless villager. If I was a werewolf, which I am most certainly not I would concentrate on the others, the bodyguards, the doctors, the seer, especially the seer, because he's the one that can do me in. While trying not to eat the sorceror or cultist, (if they are in the game). My deduction stands, you concentrate on one of those six and you'll find your wolves. Far better odds than guessing from the whole group. |
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No you are wrong, they /did/ win the round...an innocent was killed, no wolf was found, and /then/ they managed to kill the witness, if that isn't a nice win, I don't know what is (perhaps getting the seer). Plus, Airhog is now rendered useless, that is the only villager victory, one less person we can implicate as a wolf, but that's hardly a victory when shorty, taz, and mcsweeny are all dead, and 3 to 5 wolves are lurking about. :eek: |
I voted for Airhog mostly because I was annoyed. He was being so crazy and I couldn't figure out a real reason for that ploy. Once talk about him being the Duke came up, I was still too annoyed to think that he had a real strategy. I guess we did fail on that one.
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Because their ultimate goal is to get rid of all of the villagers. Since you know he is definitely one, and definitely not helping them, it's easy. Maybe they have some insight into who the seer or doctor or bodyguard is, but I haven't seen much that gives anyone's role away to this point. So without evidence, you go back to the obvious choice.
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Not to implicate you BrianD, but this will be when we get the "I voted for Airhog because..." rationalizations because now everyone is going to be trying to prove they aren't the wolves. Let's see how quick everyone comes to stating the obvious, that they voted for Airhog because everyone else did. Notice, I think BrianD is the first of the six to try to defend his voting method. |
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Personally I'd like to lynch Airhog for needlessly sacrificing a villager, but I suppose we need live bodies at this point. The wolves were foiled in their attempt to eat someone (assuming it wasn't the cursed guy), so the round is even. What do you mean about the witness being killed? And how do you know it's 3-5 wolves? |
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How is Airhog the obvious choice? Because he was raving? We all know that the wolves wouldn't openly show themselves, when I saw Airhog's posts all I thought was, he's trying to smoke them out, and then I realized he was the duke, he had no fear, he was trying to pull the wolves out, perhaps prematurely, but I think if we look at those six, we may be able to get a crucial kill. I think the obvious choice was to look at who voted for him even with all the information we were receiving. |
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McSweeny was eaten, he was the witness, he died before he could witness anything, and thus a critical loss to us, the villagers. |
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Here is the latest. |
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Airhog is the obvious choice because they know he is not an evil helper. You talk about them trying to kill the seer, etc., but don't forget that there are evil helpers out there as well that the wolves don't know the identity of. So they can definitely eliminate a villager who they know is of no use to them. |
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I warned of the worst case scenario.. that is a wasted Duke opportunity, an innocent dead and then another kill at night... (cost us the witness at that).. Unfortunately, I hoped Airhog knew what he was doing... It is really important to get one right tonight folks otherwise we are another 2 down.. Qwik, maybe I'm reading too much into your statements but, seems your comments are more in line with accusing Eaglesfan/NoMyths.. based on the fact that Eaglesfan went with the flow and you stated NoMyths might have been doing a ruse? I'm still perplexed at why the wolves didn't take you out in potentially setting up Neuqua for a lynching.. probably a whole lotta nothing in my head... |
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Far better odds for you since you didn't put yourself in that group. Truth is, you can't know what the odds are. It is true that the odds are decent that a wolf is in that group. If we are guessing 3-4 wolves and 16 people still in the house, you've got about a .01% chance of guessing wrong on 6 random guesses. Of course if you've managed to isolate only 1 wolf in your deduction, then the odds are better picking from the group as a whole. I think we need to go back and form our deductions from situation outside of the Airhog affair. His play was so crazy that a bunch of us picked him without thinking about it properly. |
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If you say so, if I were to think like a wolf, I'd concentrate on other threats. But seeing as I'm not, I'm at least trying to figure out who they are. One of those six, I'm telling you, I may not live to say more. Though you are trying really hard to defend the rationale that Airhog should be dead, but the wolves went after someone else. |
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It's also interesting to me that just about every post from you except the last one has been overemphasizing words that tie you to villagers...almost all of which protestations followed your 'slip of the tongue.' Then tossing out six names to take the heat off of yourself? Especially considering how quiet you've been up to this point? It's all pretty suspicious. Still, I'm willing to take you at your word for now, and continue to consider others...speaking up as you've done has gone a ways towards me dropping your name down the list a bit. |
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You realize that a "not to implicate" opening to your post is a bit wasted when you spend the rest of the post implicating. :) |
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Very good point...I was under the impression that we had two wolves, with possibly someone being Cursed. Pretty specific information for not saying much up to this point. Not to mention, why would you want to repeat Peregrine's information from last night on this page, rather than having people read page 10? Suspicious indeed. |
I believe I was one of the last to vote last time, I read through it all, and took my time, I knew Airhog was not a wolf, and was probably the duke. In not voting for him, I strayed from the mob mentality and voted against someone who I knew would not be harmed.
You want to implicate me of something go ahead, but I went back and checked. Thinking improperly or not one of those six was quickly going with the flow to not be implicated as a wolf. NoMyths went into a long long discussion with himself and still wound up with the same conclusion, to vote for Airhog. The equivalent possibly of a murderer crying at his victim's funeral. That is all I'm saying, I haven't implicated anyone yet; I have implied guilt but not directly accused, I want to see where the discussion leads, I want to hear more from those six. Everyone is so tight lipped, we have to speak, discuss. We have to start somewhere, I say start with those six. |
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I'm hardly quiet, I may be the highest poster in this thread. |
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Merely wanted to state now will be the time, since I stated it, that will have spindoctoring on the whole this is why I voted for Airhog. |
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I agree with Qwik (as I said last night) that Airhog is probably no longer a target. He is someone the villagers *know* isn't a wolf, but villagers without a special role are less dangerous to the wolves. |
You've been one of the last to vote both times, and have had little to say until you came under the gun. The text of your posts today has been incredibly suspicious, and the fact that you'd repeat Peregrine's info on this page to keep people from reading much of the accusations or info from the last page makes me more than curious. It makes me almost certain we've rousted a furry.
I'll be first, this time: Qwikshot is scrambling for cover, and trying to scatter his fire in a lot of directions. But everything adds up to him. I vote Qwikshot |
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I repeated the post on what happened to save Desundo the time because I was posting some long posts. We've had two botched attacks, maybe they weren't botched, plus the possibility of a brutal wolf? I'd go with three or four at this point, which is why the Taz/McSweeny deaths are that much more disconcerting. |
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Oh, one of the six votes for me. Figured as much, yet I don't see you looking at the wealth of information going on. I don't think I'm grasping at straws here, I think I'm proving my point. But I'm not a wolf, but I can be sure the wolves will be joining the rest of my hapless colleagues in voting my death. How am I scrambling for cover, I'm shouting at all of you to look at the truth? Are you frightened of the truth NoMyths? |
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It's mainly because if someone was going to be eaten, I'd prefer it to be him for killing Taz. Obviously I was wrong about him being the obvious choice, in that they went after McSweeny instead. I think McSweeny refutes the whole "quiet = wolf" argument since he didn't say a thing. It's certainly possible that they could be playing the good cop, bad cop routine, with some laying low, and others being more vocal. |
I got to take a shower and get ready for work, I'll check in again once more before I leave, can't wait to see what goes on...while I'm gone.
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McSweeny was out for the weekend as he stated. The weekend messes things up a little, I'd say let's look at those who were active, they're the ones who were most interested in what was going on...and thus have a tie to things. |
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You want to hear more from the six that you named, but you believe any answer they give on the Airhog vote will be spin to justify their wolfish ways. Kind of hard to figure out what you want me and the others to do now that you have cast suspision on us. Really, if you read my posts around the time of the Airhog affair (which it shall now be known as :) ), I think my annoyance was pretty clear. You can cast that as being intentional from the start (which it wasn't), but you can't call it spin after the fact. |
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My vote might change, but since I know how your analysis is leading you astry in at least my case, I'm not too convinced by any of your posts today. In fact, mostly they just dig your hole deeper in my opinion. Quote:
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I've got to say I am all mixed up at this point. I can't blame Qwik for his analysis since I've occasionally looked at bandwagon jumpers as a good place to find wolves, but since I am on his shortlist, I also have to question that strategy. I could vote for one of the people on the shortlist, but that would look like I am shifting blame to another shortlist member. I could vote away from the shortlist, but that might look bad too.
I guess I need to go back and read from the start and hope I find something that catches my eye. |
Does the voting close at 8pm now that the weekend is over?
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My analysis is a sound one, I haven't heard too many others with any sort of idea.
Yet for speaking up, I'm being attacked. Why am I assuming the loud ones right now are villagers, and the quiet ones are wolves. I think NoMyths might be the sorceror, but he's in all probability not a wolf, he's being too vocal. Yet NM is so apt to vote for my death? Do what you will, I'm not afraid, even if I have to face death, I'll die and the truth will be clear that I was not a wolf, but if I die and am a villager, what will that say about you NM? :) Prove me wrong, think of a significant different means of acquiring a motive...for all your rantings, you still voted for Airhog, for all your analysis, you still voted for a villager. The clues are right there, at least the motive is...maybe if I have time, I'll go back to Shorty's voting...maybe I'll see a pattern before those too paranoid (or worse) silence me. |
Shh...like I said, my vote might change. We have to try some strategeries for flushing comments out of the woodwork, don't we? ;)
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I voted for Airhog because I thought he wanted out of the game. I remember that people were jumping on him for not participating and I thought he decided to expedite his exit from the game. Basically, I tried to use my intuition to figure out his motives for his behavior and didn't use enough deduction. I was hardly alone in my mistake as 16 people voted for him. I think casting blame on 6 people from that 16 is suspicious. I know I'm not a werewolf.
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I wish Froggy was playing, we could use one of his spreadsheets.
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There was a flurry of furious votes here... Condors drew first blood though. NoMyths drew a lot of attention, but ultimately survived due to Shorty's apparant inactivity. Surprisingly, Desnudo and Neuqua both were picked. Where did the 6 go: Airhog - 3 (KevinNU7, Desnudo, Lathum) Desnudo - 3 (condors, ntndeacon, Airhog) NoMyths - 5 (Neuqua, Shorty, EaglesFan27, KWhit, Mustang) Shorty - 7 (NoMyths, Swaggs, TazFTW, Jon, George W Bush, McSweeny, Qwikshot) Neuqua - 1 BrianD Note: NoMyths was one of the accused. Granted there was some furious activity and a lot of pointless accusations, but I can see why NoMyths is quite high strung about all of this. |
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So having a theory is suspicious, c'mon Eagle, I'm game, if having a theory is suspicious then I'm as crazy as T.O. wanting more money to play for the Eagles (probably a bad analogy, but I'm off to work, will try to check in there, but I will be less vocal due to work demands). Oh, and please note: I'm enjoying the game, my deductions are only meant to challenge your ingame characters, not your real personnas. Fire away...I hate work. |
Well, you are only one of the few that didn't vote for Airhog. Is that because you knew he wasn't a werewolf since you are one and didn't want to risk getting hit with his power of retribution?
I agree that this is all fun ingame and I hope no one is taking anything personal :) |
I vote Qwikshot
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I vote Condors
Jumped all over me when I made a joke to him about him being a werewolf. Later jumped on the Airhog bandwagon awfully quick and seemed very excited at the prospect of an early lynching. In-between has been pretty quiet. |
I'm torn now, I love voting for Condors :)
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I am holding off on my vote for now. All I can say is I voted for Airhog in the first round and his antics did nothing to shift my suspicions from him.
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OK, I am going to lunch then I have an afternoon meeting so I'll be gone for a while. It is kind of sad that I feel the need to post my schedule for fear of suspiscion :)
I will be back in time to vote |
I'm not sure who to vote for. But, since I'm at work, I'm going to have to step back a little bit and vote later.
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actually if you read the posts Kevin was the first to bring your name up i just agreed with the logic, in my posts i asked for other people's thoughts you thought i was a hairy ugly werewolf Instead of stating your case you just accoused me. i still believe your a werewolf. i vote Desnudo |
I don't know if I'm buying that Qwik is a Wolf.. why swap from Airhog to Neu? With that act alone and standing out like a sore thumb, he had to know that would put him at the top of the list of suspects...
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