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-   -   COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778) (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=96561)

Ksyrup 05-16-2022 02:57 PM

Should have said the Anthony Edwards from Gotcha!

thesloppy 05-16-2022 03:03 PM

Gotcha! Gotcha where I want ya, it's too late to turn back now!

Some days I have trouble remembering my own relatives names, but my brain keeps the lyrics to the theme song for 1985's Gotcha always ready.

JPhillips 05-16-2022 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3367637)
P

Smart to always have at least one Anthony Edwards on hand for situations like that.


Kind of what happened. He's married to Mare Winningham and she's one of the leads so when the option was jump in or cancel a few performances of a show already scheduled to close in early June, he jumped in.

Ksyrup 05-16-2022 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thesloppy (Post 3367648)
Gotcha! Gotcha where I want ya, it's too late to turn back now!

Some days I have trouble remembering my own relatives names, but my brain keeps the lyrics to the theme song for 1985's Gotcha always ready.


I believe that was a Joan Jett song.

I was a huge fan of Gregg Guiffria back in the mid-80s and he has two songs on that soundtrack.

CrimsonFox 05-16-2022 07:00 PM

The nerd on the left


Edward64 05-16-2022 09:05 PM

Saw 2 younger foreigners walking the streets without masks. They looked, dressed European (and they were not overweight).

Saw another older foreigner with the mask under the nose trick.

I really hope the police here are a lot stricter.

I'll add that masks in pubic, open air is likely not needed (or at least from the US experience). So yeah, I think Asian countries are overdoing it. But when in another country, you should respect their laws.

Mota 05-16-2022 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox (Post 3367663)
The nerd on the left



He looks a bit different now! He's actually been on a few recent TV shows. He was on Billions in season 1, and more recently on WeCrashed.

molson 05-17-2022 12:18 AM

Travel sidenote, Global Entry/Precheck plus checking no bags is absurdly efficient. In our connecting incoming flight in San Jose, time from deplaning to getting into the domestic terminal - getting through the customs and immigration terminal and security and then physically into the terminal - was under 3 minutes.

QuikSand 05-17-2022 09:25 AM

A pretty good and seemingly not deeply biased dive into research around #LongCOVID that feels worth the time to read. THIS is the main issue that should be driving policy, and I come away frustrated that the slope from "unclear" to "not worth worrying about" is awfully slippery...


Lathum 05-17-2022 09:27 AM

My mother in law just tested positive. She is vaxxed and boosted but had a heart transplant 14 years ago and has been in less than optimal health the last few years. Father in law said shes not doing great. Fever and really bad cough. He suspects they will have to go to the hospital in NYC where her transplant was completed. As a bonus my daughter slept over their house Saturday night so I suppose I should test her when she gets home.

Thomkal 05-17-2022 10:09 AM

wow Lathum, sorry to hear that, hope everyone in your family is okay and you probably should get a test

Ksyrup 05-19-2022 09:07 PM

In the "not great timing" category, my wife just tested positive with a home test. She had allergy issues about a month ago that lasted a couple of weeks, went to the doctor, got some meds, got over it, and then yesterday started with a scratchy throat and losing her voice again, so she assumed allergies. But today she's completely congested, 100 fever, feels like she got hit by a truck, etc., so I told her to test. And sure enough...

She subbed for a teacher who tested positive last week and came back yesterday. All she had to do was isolate for 5 days and then back in the classroom, no mask, no nothing.

So now we're trying to figure out what to do. My daughter graduates next weekend. We have a ton of family coming in, lots of old people. Her final softball game could be tomorrow. She has senior awards night next Monday, senior walk, senior breakfast, etc., all things my wife planned to attend. The softball game should be easy - she can drive herself and sit in the OF behind the fence where no one will be. Everything else... probably not going to happen.

She's got an appointment for a real test on Tuesday. My big concern - what if my daughter or I show symptoms some time next week? This could be a friggin' disaster of epic proportions.

flere-imsaho 05-20-2022 08:05 AM

Yeah, everyone at work is coughing and is like "it's allergies", and I'm all JUST STAY HOME!!!

Having said that, I had been going into work more regularly the past 3 months, but am now shifting to more WFH days for myself (it's nice to finish your day when it's a nice day and just go out on the patio instead of driving home).

albionmoonlight 05-20-2022 08:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3367700)
A pretty good and seemingly not deeply biased dive into research around #LongCOVID that feels worth the time to read. THIS is the main issue that should be driving policy, and I come away frustrated that the slope from "unclear" to "not worth worrying about" is awfully slippery...



Yup. The powers that be decided (consciously or subconsciously) that Long COVID is a super inconvenient reality, so they've just decided to pretend it does not exist. Or, as this thread points out, to pretend that "we don't really know enough" about it yet.

Ksyrup 05-20-2022 08:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho (Post 3367895)
Yeah, everyone at work is coughing and is like "it's allergies", and I'm all JUST STAY HOME!!!

Having said that, I had been going into work more regularly the past 3 months, but am now shifting to more WFH days for myself (it's nice to finish your day when it's a nice day and just go out on the patio instead of driving home).


I had just read an article yesterday about how the latest Covid strain symptoms have shifted from the old Covid symptoms and the issue with spring allergies. My wife just assumed her allergies were coming back but I told her to test because of that article. She didn't lose taste/smell, no cough. She basically had the same symptoms as when her allergies acted up except they were worse.

bhlloy 05-20-2022 12:11 PM

My wife got exposed to somebody at a 2 day contract negotiation she had to attend in person who used the “it’s just allergies” excuse so I feel your pain. We tested negative yesterday but only 2 days from exposure, not that confident it’s going to stay that way

RainMaker 05-20-2022 03:10 PM

This stuff hits me. Reminds me of hearing those voicemails from 9/11 victims.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ths-texts.html

Brian Swartz 05-20-2022 05:38 PM

Unfortunately 'just stay home' isn't an option economically for many people.

Lathum 05-24-2022 12:12 PM

MONKEY POX!!!!!!!

Thomkal 05-24-2022 02:55 PM

Had forgot to mention here that the govt is offering free at home testing kits again through the Postal Service. quick turnaround for me this time from when I orderd it.

stevew 06-01-2022 05:42 PM

Multiple members of my wife's traveling party in Ireland tested positive and must quarantine. They will end up needing to pass a covid test in order to get back into the US. Thankfully(shudder) my wife had Covid a week before her trip. Thanks for the heads up about the eMed Lathum, worked like a charm.

I'd consider the variables if you're planning on leaving the US any time in the near future. Could be significantly more expensive if you get stuck in a quarantine.

Edward64 06-01-2022 06:52 PM

Have to take a test within 24 hours of boarding a flight back into the US. 48 hours is reasonable but 24 hours hurts if you are trying to fly back on a Sun or Mon (e.g. testing centers and quick turnaround time is limited).

The CDC website is not that clear if rapid antigen (vs PCR) is acceptable. It says it is but then it says it has to be a specific type (viral). I'm paying a premium of $125 for the PCR (and quick turnaround) just so there are no misunderstanding at the airport.

In my travels so far, only the US and one other country requires the test to enter the country. And the other one was 48 hours.

With that said, I agree with the overall testing requirement. But would be nice if it was 48 vs 24 hours.

Edward64 06-01-2022 06:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3368065)
MONKEY POX!!!!!!!


Yeah, so what's the deal with this? From what I've read, its a non-story?

Edward64 06-01-2022 07:06 PM

Not sure I mentioned this already but in my travels in asia, everyone is wearing masks outdoors. I get the need indoors and on transportation.

Told my local friends that I think that's unnecessary but while in Rome, have to respect the local rules.

Off topic but want to bitch about 2 things.

An European guy wearing a wife beater t-shirt on the rail system. I do not want to see your hairy armpit as you hang onto the strap you ass. And neither does the poor woman, shorter than you, that was in front of you.

Can old white, western guys please date/marry somewhat older local women. It's a little disturbing the age difference in a lot of these couples I see. I know there are many great looking middle aged women (have friends, and friends of friends that are straight up MILFs and GILFs. Beats me, must be genes and water here). Nobodyhere, take note.

JPhillips 06-01-2022 07:09 PM

Years ago when we were in China lots of people wore masks outside, but that was because of the pollution.

Edward64 06-01-2022 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPhillips (Post 3368701)
Years ago when we were in China lots of people wore masks outside, but that was because of the pollution.


I saw that in Beijing but not in the couple other towns/cities I was in.

TBH, I didn't think pollution was that bad in Beijing when I went. What I remembered was staying at a nice 5-star Marriott and the air conditioner was not blowing cold air. I asked the front desk for a new room and they said it was some government control not to have air conditioner for x time blocks.

So they brought me a fan instead. That worked well enough.

NobodyHere 06-01-2022 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3368700)
Nobodyhere, take note.


I'm not interested in the mail-order-bride/prostitution ring that you're running.

Edward64 06-01-2022 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NobodyHere (Post 3368723)
I'm not interested in the mail-order-bride/prostitution ring that you're running.


To be fair, you did ask for help.

And to be accurate, definitely not prostitution.

Not sure if its mail order bride if you go to Asia vs them coming to you. It may be a mail order husband then.

Just saying it may be time for you to consider beyond the US.

Edward64 06-04-2022 11:36 PM

FWIW plenty of entitled middle eastern folks at Doha airport with no mask or under the nose/chin trick. It surprising how many and how flagrant they are. It’s one of those it’s our position but no need to enforce. If they really wanted to they just need to make a couple public examples each hour or so.

If there is one place to retain masks until the very last, it’s international airports IMO.

I think Asia has done the best job from what I’ve seen.

Ksyrup 06-06-2022 09:00 PM

I decided to get the second booster this coming Saturday. It's been 6+ months since I got the first booster, my wife had Covid a few weeks ago, and we're travelling to Hawaii at the end of the month. It just feels like the right time to get the booster.

Lathum 06-06-2022 09:21 PM

So we took the plunge and booked an Alaskan cruise for July 2023. Really hope things are even more "normal" by then.

Ksyrup 06-06-2022 10:39 PM

We haven't rescheduled. Original Alaska cruise was scheduled for June-July 2020. Probably won't be until 2024 at earliest since we're doing 2 weeks in Montana and Wyoming next summer.

Ksyrup 06-08-2022 07:00 PM

So I see things like this and I feel like some people are living in the past. Our family was extremely cautious, sheltered in place, wore masks, got shots/boosters, but we were always trying to get to a place where hospitalizations and deaths were manageable, right? Covid was never going to be eradicated.

So I see this and then I go look on the CDC website at the 7-day moving averages for hospitalizations and deaths and we're still way down compared to the 2-year historical averages. Deaths are wobbling right around the lowest point from last year this time, and hospitalizations are up for people aged 70+ but all other age groups are lower than they've been since it started.

So... isn't this basically where we want to be? I don't understand people acting like it's October 2020 and warning that the first sign of a slight uptick means we have to start wearing masks again. I'm just not seeing any evidence that we are inevitably going to crest back to 10 times the number of deaths and hospitals are going to be overwhelmed. The vaccines/boosters and natural immunity have done their job to this point (until we see evidence of a variant that bypasses the current protections).


Edward64 06-08-2022 09:21 PM

Stats without context is always problematic. I think we are past "infections" and now focused on "hospitalizations/deaths" (or at least I am).

Read thru some of the comments. He has alot of supporters that agree. Maybe we're the ones missing something ... but don't think so.

dubb93 06-08-2022 10:17 PM

This community transmission bullshit is the bane of my existence. It determines how much PPE we have to wear as a nurse and basically has zero bearing on actual cases in the community. Seriously. Pick a small county and look at the CDC community transmission rate and then go that the state website and look at the actual numbers. They basically have nothing in common. We moved up in rate last month despite having zero hospitalizations which means we went from just surgical masks to having to wear masks and a face shield our entire shift. Sounds little, but try looking at a computer screen through a faceshild, not to mention the unit is kept 74 degrees which feels like 94 under a faceshield.

Edward64 06-08-2022 11:46 PM

Good to know Moderna has something newer and better. I had my 4th shot in April so assume I can get this newer version as my 5th shot as part of my flu shot in Oct or so.

Quote:

Moderna said on Wednesday its bivalent Covid-19 vaccine booster that contained a vaccine targeting the Omicron variant showed a stronger immune response against the variant.

Bivalent boosters address two viral strains in the same vaccine. The updated booster contains Moderna's original vaccine, and a vaccine candidate that targets the Omicron variant.

The vaccine was generally well-tolerated, the company said, with side effects similar to booster doses of the current vaccine.

The 50-microgram bivalent booster, called mRNA-1273.214, generated a stronger antibody response against Omicron than the original Moderna vaccine. Omicron subvariants are driving virtually all the new Covid-19 cases in the United States right now.

Stéphane Bancel, chief executive officer of Moderna, said in a news release "we anticipate more durable protection against variants of concern with mRNA-1273.214, making it our lead candidate for a Fall 2022 booster."

Ksyrup 06-11-2022 01:07 PM

I just got the 2nd booster. My wife got COVID last month, it's been 6 months since my booster, and we're flying to Hawaii in a couple weeks, so I figured it was a good time.

I also got Tdap and Shingles vaccines at the same time so I'm taking the day off from running just in case one of the cocktail hits me hard.

QuikSand 06-11-2022 03:47 PM

What if, over the next decade, we reach a consensus that something like 10-20% of COVID cases, basically independent of the person's vaccination/booster status and the severity of symptoms, ended up yielding long term serious consequences? That maybe 40 million Americans, to try to put a point on it, now suffer from a long-term debilitating ailment that seriously limits or eliminates their ability to be economically productive?

How far away are we from that being the case, right now, based on what we know? I know we won't reach consensus because that might involved short term economic or political sacrifice, but... hmmm.

Anyway, I'm at home separating from my family as I returned recently from a work gathering with a wake-up headache, and am treating it like an active exposure, just to be fairly safe.

QuikSand 06-15-2022 03:50 PM

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Kodos 06-15-2022 04:05 PM

I got my 2nd booster last week. Surprisingly, no problems this time. Not even a sore arm.

Edward64 06-16-2022 06:50 AM

Fauci getting Covid is a non-story for me but guess I understand why it has to be reported.

Wishing him a quick recovery. He certainly has been through a lot in the past 3+ years.

PilotMan 06-16-2022 10:34 AM

Get in touch with the state of Kentucky! (read the comments and take it all in)

https://www.facebook.com/WKYTTV/posts/10158561749010766

Lathum 06-16-2022 11:02 AM

Jesus. What an embarrassment. How many of those people have Bible verses on their bio.

GrantDawg 06-16-2022 02:45 PM

"I love Jesus, guns and wishing death on liberals."

Edward64 06-16-2022 10:02 PM

Daughter just let us know she tested positive. Self isolating in her school apartment now. Good think most of her classes are still online.

Edward64 06-19-2022 09:52 AM

From the DailyMail so take it for what it is.

I'm thinking surely the CDC would not just accept that limited number of test subjects so some additional context is missing (e.g. there were other tests done with a much larger pool of subjects?).

But if I had a kid that young, I'd wait maybe a month after the early adopters.

Experts question CDC's approval of COVID vaccines for under-5s | Daily Mail Online
Quote:

In the wake of the CDC's approval of Pfizer and Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine for babies as young as six months, at least one expert has questioned the move.

Dr. Sarah Long, an infectious diseases expert at the Drexel University College of Medicine, told the New York Times: 'We should just assume that we don't have efficacy data.'

That comes off the back of Pfizer's own reporting that said their statements of 80% effectiveness in children under five was based on the responses of just three children.

Those children were part of a group of ten but seven were given a placebo.


Thomkal 06-19-2022 10:56 AM

Yeah if I had kids, I think I'd wait a bit to see how others are reacting to the vaccine before letting my kids get them.

flere-imsaho 06-20-2022 10:40 AM

The safety data for the two RNA vaccines has been consistently pristine. Besides the temporary side effects associated with administration, the only risk you run with these vaccines, based on the data, is that they won't really work all that well.

albionmoonlight 06-20-2022 10:58 AM

The vaccines have been studied extensively for safety. And billions of doses have been administered. They are safe.

Even the delay in < 5 wasn't b/c of safety. It was to increase effectiveness.

PilotMan 06-29-2022 01:27 PM

Man, so I've got it for the 2nd time now, and you know what? It still sucks. It's not like life endangering, or painful, but it's still awful. This time around still feels like the first time around, and like the effects from the first shot did for 48 hours. I feel weak, jittery, have a horrendous sinus infection, dizzy, sore throat off and on, awful cough off and on, but the worst is just that feeling of total exhaustion and inability to concentrate on anything at all. Just like you're a total zombie and nothing really matters. I slept like 10 hours yesterday. You know that feeling where you just woke up from a deep sleep, and you really don't know what is going on, and you're pretty sure you could just go right back to sleep? That's my reality right now. I just want to feel like doing something, other than sitting on the couch and watching TV. I start doing something, then forget about it because something else sidetracked me. I erased a comment I was typing from an hour ago, because I forgot I was even typing it after I got distracted and totally lost my train of thought when I saw it, or realized it was pointless anyway.

sucks

Kodos 06-29-2022 02:08 PM

Sorry to hear that, PilotMan. I hope you recover soon.

Thomkal 06-29-2022 02:23 PM

Sorry to hear this PM :( hope you get over it quickly

AnalBumCover 06-30-2022 09:52 AM

I just got it, after having avoided it for two years. Even managed to escape it when my wife and daughter had it a couple of months ago. I could've got it from a variety of sources. We spent a week in Cancun, but then shortly afterwards we met up with my siblings to share stories of their own international travels. Three of us got hit.

I'm on the mend now, but I was pretty much knocked out these past three days. One thing I remember was turning on Disney+ to watch Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, and then waking up to the closing credits.

albionmoonlight 06-30-2022 09:56 AM

The slow process of science is necessary to help make sure things are safe. But it can be kind of demoralizing when the vaccine approval process lags so far behind the actual mutations of the virus: https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/healt...ter/index.html

By the time an omicron-aware vaccine hits the shelves, we will have all already gotten omicron.

Lathum 06-30-2022 10:09 AM

My wife had her team meeting this week. Just called me and told me her admin tested positive. She’s been right next to the admin the last three days. Said her throat feels scratchy. Only good thing is she decided to stay at the hotel during the meeting instead of commute so me and the kids should be good.

Edward64 06-30-2022 10:10 AM

I did a lot of travelling in Europe and Asia last month. Interacted with a bunch of people, travelled through 7 different airports (some multiple times and with long layovers), in 5-8+ hour crowded flights, and I'm somewhat amazed I didn't catch anything.

PilotMan 06-30-2022 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum (Post 3371110)
My wife had her team meeting this week. Just called me and told me her admin tested positive. She’s been right next to the admin the last three days. Said her throat feels scratchy. Only good thing is she decided to stay at the hotel during the meeting instead of commute so me and the kids should be good.


That is exactly how all 4 of us started. It's scratchy throat, and then the next day is a little worse, by day 4-5 you're hitting peak, and then a slow drop. I'm finally feeling a bit better today, but it's been a shitty week.

MIJB#19 07-01-2022 06:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3371111)
I did a lot of travelling in Europe and Asia last month. Interacted with a bunch of people, travelled through 7 different airports (some multiple times and with long layovers), in 5-8+ hour crowded flights, and I'm somewhat amazed I didn't catch anything.

So you're the one that brought it all back to the European airports and beyond. :rant:

Edward64 07-01-2022 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MIJB#19 (Post 3371253)
So you're the one that brought it all back to the European airports and beyond. :rant:


Hey, I wore masks and took the tests when I was supposed to.

Darn, is ramping up again? I've not kept up with what's happening in Europe. Sorry to hear, I was thinking maybe visiting France or Belgium sometime in Nov/Dec (I've been wanting to visit the Christmas markets again, the ones we have in the US are "rubbish").

QuikSand 07-03-2022 11:02 PM

Good thread…

https://twitter.com/bob_wachter/stat...wImN2dup4cYM9Q

QuikSand 07-05-2022 09:00 AM

More perspective on where this is trending, and what the “long COVID” construct really may amount to (T cell deterioration):

Get Ready for the Forever Plague | The Tyee

sterlingice 07-05-2022 01:06 PM

I'm ready to go back to the non-interesting times of history

SI

albionmoonlight 07-05-2022 01:23 PM

No one has ever explained to me why it made sense to give up.

Everyone who wasn't willfully blind knew that "NaTuRal ImMUnIty" didn't make sense with the way this virus works.

And, yeah, some truckers didn't like that some private businesses were encouraging masks, so we had to get rid of those.

But why not install air filters in schools? Even the truckers seemed to not be against that. But we just . . . didn't.

We quit.

sterlingice 07-05-2022 02:12 PM

If we keep fighting, it reminds us that we're fighting a battle with wins and losses. Instead, if we quit, we can pretend it is just a way of life or something.

I know I'm not the only one in a relationship where we're at different levels of comfort with regards to doing things in public. And it's not like my wife is some dimwitted mouth breather, but she just wants to be done with it. And there is a lot of (faux?) calculus being thrown around about mental health vs risk. And I know we're a lot later to the game in this argument than a lot of people who had this a year and a half ago.

SI

albionmoonlight 07-05-2022 02:15 PM

We've had since March 2020 to improve indoor air quality. It wasn't a cost thing. We've spent trillions fighting this disease.

We just didn't do the thing that everyone agrees would really help and that even the MAGA types don't seem to object to.

GrantDawg 07-05-2022 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight (Post 3371475)
But why not install air filters in schools? Even the truckers seemed to not be against that. But we just . . . didn't.

We quit.

Wasn't there money allotted for that? I thought there was pretty big blocks of funds set aside for school upgrades. Was I just imagining that?

albionmoonlight 07-05-2022 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GrantDawg (Post 3371482)
Wasn't there money allotted for that? I thought there was pretty big blocks of funds set aside for school upgrades. Was I just imagining that?


Maybe. I just haven't seen any of it actually being done. At least in our area.

QuikSand 07-05-2022 02:37 PM

I think an awful lot of relatively reasonable people have gone through a real cycling of their views on COVID:

-initially trust public health leaders/messaging (scorn those who don't) and mostly follow the guidance - social distancing, stay home when you can, wash hands a lot, wear some sort of mask

-as things dragged on, and the messaging seemed to get diffuse (still need masks outdoors? is it transmitting via surfaces? social protests are so important that no-masks is acceptable there?) there was some erosion due to more than mere fatigue ... also the urgency of the initial "flatten the curve" goal seemed to dissipate somewhere around here

-once we got a vaccine announcement, to most of us it felt like "we did it" and we'd just make it through the weeks ahead, and this was over - that's mostly how we believe(d) vaccines to work

-then the sluggish roll-out of the vaccine itself and the anti-vax movement erupts, and we were angry -- I got my vax, but that a-hole didn't, and now it's still not safe for me to go out to eat without a mask or whatever

-public health guidance and messaging started to further crumble and become very hard to pin down... does the vaccine mean I cannot get the virus? or that it's nearly impossible? or just reduce my symptoms? breakthrough cases made disproportionately large news, making it feel like the whole vaccine efforts was ineffective... so further erosion of "trust our public health leaders" there

-once we got to basically "those willing to vaccinate did so" we felt like we (we, actual human Americans, rather than hypothetical in-our-best-interest actors from a simulation of rational people) can't really beat this... then we started to slide into new variants, and it was hard psychologically to make peace with really moving backward to restrictions and mandates and masking again

-the feeling that most cases are mild/trivial became persuasive, especially among the vaccinated/boosted... very understandable, and to a large extent that was indeed the purpose of the vaccine... yielding an awful lot of "if i get it, i get it, so be it" (and we will charitably grant a parenthetical or implied "...and I am not likely to expose someone especially vulnerable if I do get it)

-that momentum has continued to play out, abetted by public health guidance that feels (to me) politically driven suggesting masking and other simple protections have outlasted their usefulness...and many people took their lead to offramp from taking all this seriously at that point

-the reasonable person isn't the one who stood up and shouted on the plane when they announced no more air travel mask mandate... but the person who responded to that additional bit of "relax now" guidance by, basically, relaxing

-and data on everything is really hard to understand at this point... what value does an overall positivity testing number give us, now that most testing is at-home and unreported? how effective are (or were), say, school masking policies with real world kids? if three of the 40 people at my grocery store are walking around positive, what are the chances i pick it up while i shop alongside them and how does masking, vaccine, or anything else alter that? reasonable people are at the *shurg* point on most of this, now.

-and with so much toothpaste out of the tube at this point... if you're still wearing a mask to a routine visit to a store, turning down travel opportunities, and so forth... you're not in step with the world around you and are increasingly dismissed as "the crazy ones" and receive sneers and comments like "you have to just live your life"

-meanwhile transmission rates are super high, genuinely scary data is coming in about the long-term severity of many of these mild cases, even the simplest counter-measures are way down, and we are uninterested in making burdensome changes (like ventilation improvements in schools) ... this combination of outcomes feels so far gone from May of 2020, but it's a story that sort of wrote itself bit by bit

albionmoonlight 07-05-2022 03:40 PM

That is a really really good post. I agree with it completely.

I'll add that it really sucks that it looks like the real legacy/problem with COVID is Long COVID and not acute deaths/severe disease.

Because--even at the best of times--we are really bad at properly assessing long term risks vs short term risks (the classic person afraid of flying who will drive across country instead despite the risks of a serious traffic accident being greater than a plane crash; or the person who will consume tons of saturated fats and refined sugars for decades). And this is decidedly not the best of times.

sterlingice 07-05-2022 04:16 PM

Yeah, I think QS nailed it, unfortunately.

I'm a stubborn cuss so I keep masking, we're still not doing many indoor activities, and our travel is still well below pre-pandemic levels (we went on our first place since 2019 a month ago). But that's absolutely caused friction in our household and distance in our social groups and it's exactly what you've described.

Instead, as am said, we've just given up. Hell, we changed the definition of what a "high risk county" is and half the country is red right now. In the middle of a summer. A few months after the winter containing our two deadliest months of the entire pandemic with a variant that seemingly infected more than half the population.

But damned if I know the answer.

SI

Edward64 07-06-2022 05:47 AM

So from what I'm gathering, you guys think it's too early to take off masks and the overall sense that public is becoming too lax?

We're at about 76% vaccinated for 18+. Masks have been eliminated other than for some government buildings. Pharma's are getting the next batch of shots ready to address more recent strains ... but like flu shots, they won't ever get it near completely right.

So what are you guys proposing?

FWIW, I do think we should continue awareness programs on covid & vaccination (certainly more than what we've been doing). But yeah, I'm in the camp of let's not worry too much about it, take our annual shots, and get back to "regular life" until it heats up again or Fauci raises the alarm.

QuikSand 07-06-2022 06:57 AM

Yes, I think the public is too lax right now.

I'm about to cancel my plans to attend an in-person conference that would require air travel. I wear a mask during my infrequent trips "out" for retail shopping and the like. I don't eat out at restaurants except the occasional outdoor spot.

For work, I have to do a fair bit of in-person meeting, but I wear a mask even in the car with one or two people, and wear my mask up until the time I start to speak at the microphone or lectern.

I am now very much used to being the only person in the meeting audience of 30 who is masked.

sterlingice 07-06-2022 08:31 AM

As has ever been, this isn't about what we're proposing but what the virus is doing. t's continually evolved and we've failed to keep up with it from a public policy standpoint.

I've seen more and more data that corroborates what that article says, which boils down to:
First generation vaccinations are getting less and less effective
"Natural" immunity from infection is lasting for a shorter timeframe as the virus evolves
Getting infected multiple times is worse on the body, not something that gives you "better" immunity
This also increases your risk of long COVID, which is, arguably, the more widespread damage from COVID and something we have basically no treatment for

And if the response to that is "well, what's the endgame", the answer is simply "I don't know". I'm acting based on what the virus is doing. And there is no "if we all just do X, the virus will do Y" ironclad promise that can be given to people.

SI

albionmoonlight 07-06-2022 09:21 AM

My friend's nephew is going on a school trip to Europe this summer. My friend asked how the group is going to handle COVID and travel. They responded that they are not going to test anyone regardless of symptoms and that they are not going to disrupt any travel plans for any reason.

So I'm not sure what I would advocate. But I know that we have gone WAY WAY too far in the other direction.

Kodos 07-06-2022 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3371459)
More perspective on where this is trending, and what the “long COVID” construct really may amount to (T cell deterioration):

Get Ready for the Forever Plague | The Tyee


That was a scary article.

Edward64 07-06-2022 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sterlingice (Post 3371550)
As has ever been, this isn't about what we're proposing but what the virus is doing. t's continually evolved and we've failed to keep up with it from a public policy standpoint.

I've seen more and more data that corroborates what that article says, which boils down to:
First generation vaccinations are getting less and less effective
"Natural" immunity from infection is lasting for a shorter timeframe as the virus evolves
Getting infected multiple times is worse on the body, not something that gives you "better" immunity
This also increases your risk of long COVID, which is, arguably, the more widespread damage from COVID and something we have basically no treatment for

And if the response to that is "well, what's the endgame", the answer is simply "I don't know". I'm acting based on what the virus is doing. And there is no "if we all just do X, the virus will do Y" ironclad promise that can be given to people.

SI


I don't disagree with what you have stated. But the end game is essentially annual "flu/covid" shots, and that we are in the new normal (including a certain level of additional covid deaths) until there is another spike/call for alarm by Fauci and like.

I understand there will also be some people more susceptible to covid and if you feel the need to wear a mask go for it. Yes, some will look at you as weird but even today, I see a fair number of folks wearing masks at my local Kroger & Walmart, and thinking that's here to stay for the foreseeable future.

QuikSand 07-07-2022 11:29 AM


Edward64 07-09-2022 07:25 PM

Poking around wanting to know what's planned for Fall re: updated vaccinations/boosters. Article below is from Jul 6 so pretty recent.

FDA advisors recommend COVID vaccine update for fall with Andrea Garcia, JD, MPH | AMA COVID-19 Update Video | AMA
Quote:

Unger: So in terms of meeting this recommendation, are we now looking largely to Pfizer and Moderna to do that?

Garcia: Yeah. So both Pfizer and Moderna had been working on a booster candidate that combines the existing vaccine with Omicron itself, not its subvariants. However, I think the prevailing view in the meeting is that that vaccine may already be somewhat outdated. So, the companies had been including Omicron BA.1 vaccines in prep for the fall. They indicated that switching to a BA.4-BA.5 design could delay their introduction.

Unger: Wow. So is there a vaccine already in the works?

Garcia: So Pfizer said that they would have a substantial amount of a BA.4-BA.5 vaccine ready for distribution by that first week in October, which is good news. Moderna said it would be late October, early November before its modified vaccine will be ready. I just want to be clear here that the advisors are not recommending any change to that primary vaccine series, so if you need that primary vaccine, that will not be changing. You should go get that vaccine now.

I've had 4 rounds of Moderna. May have to consider Pfizer next time since they'll deliver quicker. Who knows. First world problem.

Mota 07-10-2022 03:14 PM

I find it quite shocking that we are still being vaccinated for OG COVID. That version of the virus hasn't been circulating for what... 1.5 years now? We are so many generations beyond it.

Edward64 07-10-2022 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mota (Post 3371956)
I find it quite shocking that we are still being vaccinated for OG COVID. That version of the virus hasn't been circulating for what... 1.5 years now? We are so many generations beyond it.


OG = Omnicron? I believe the Omnicron "wave" started 4Q 2021.

But your point is taken. There's always that lag between vaccines and latest variant.

Edward64 07-10-2022 05:00 PM

Good to know we are doing study of long term effects. Probably good use of $1.15B.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/long...on-study-.html
Quote:

The National Institutes of Health is rolling out one of the largest studies in the world to understand long Covid in a high-stakes effort to find definitive answers about a multitude of seemingly unrelated and sometimes debilitating symptoms that have plagued patients and confounded physicians.

The $1.15 billion taxpayer-funded study, called Recover, aims to enroll nearly 40,000 people by the end of this year. It will follow those participants over four years, comparing people with Covid to those who’ve never had it, with the goal of identifying all the long-term symptoms and finding out how the virus is causing them. The Patient-Led Research Collaborative said there were more than 200 long Covid symptoms across 10 organ systems, according to a study published last year in The Lancet.

It’s a massive undertaking, and expectations are high. The size of the budget, breadth, depth and scope of the study are rarely seen in scientific studies.

The study’s conclusions could play a pivotal role in developing diagnostic tests and finding treatments for patients who remain sick months after contracting Covid-19. If the scientists can produce clinical definitions of the various long-term illnesses associated with the virus, patients will stand on firmer ground when trying to convince health insurers to cover their treatments and getting disability claims approved.

albionmoonlight 07-10-2022 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3371963)
Good to know we are doing study of long term effects. Probably good use of $1.15B.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/08/long...on-study-.html


I agree.

I think that a massive shift of public opinion and orientation and resources away from thinking that we are fighting COVID to realizing that we are fighting Long COVID is the way to go.

There is, of course, a lot of overlap. The best way to stop Long COVID is to prevent people from getting COVID. But the whole focus/mindset needs to be on Long COVID.

QuikSand 07-10-2022 09:42 PM

yup

sterlingice 07-11-2022 09:00 AM

I'm hopeful but not confident that what comes out of long COVID studies is more of a one shot or short term treatment that wipes out the viral reservoirs in the body and also can be translated over to other viruses that have similar effects.

What I fear is more likely is some long term, expensive treatment that only sortof works in a smaller portion of the population, makes it a chronic illness, and has to be taken for the rest of your life.

SI

stevew 07-11-2022 10:12 AM

I’m pretty sure I have it again and I just had it in early May. I don’t have any more tests at the moment.

Edward64 07-13-2022 07:19 AM

FWIW. I'll have to discuss with wife about wearing masks indoors again and doing outdoor seating. My daughter caught it about a month ago.

Wonder why FDA has not yet approved 2nd booster (4th shot) to adults under 50 and only for those 50+.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politic...ss-the-country
Quote:

The Biden administration is calling on people to exercise renewed caution about COVID-19, emphasizing the importance of getting booster shots for those who are eligible and wearing masks indoors as two new highly transmissible variants are spreading rapidly across the country.
:
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said while the new variants are concerning, with boosters, indoor masking and treatments the country has the tools to keep them from being disruptive.

“We should not let it disrupt our lives,” he said, “but we cannot deny that it is a reality that we need to deal with.”
:
Jha and Fauci said the U.S. is regularly discussing expanding eligibility for a second booster shot to all adults, but that no decision has been made yet.

“It’s a regulatory decision on the part of the FDA,” Fauci said.

Jha said people who are eligible for a booster but haven’t received one shouldn’t wait for forthcoming vaccines targeted at the omicron strain in addition to the original form of the coronavirus. The U.S. has ordered 105 million of those updated shots, which studies show provide better protection against omicron variants, but they won’t be available until the fall.

“Let me be clear, if you get vaccinated today, you’re not going to be ineligible to get the variants specific vaccine, as we get into the later part of fall and winter,” Jha said. “So, this is not a tradeoff, we’ve got plenty. It’s a great way to protect yourself.”

Edward64 07-13-2022 01:10 PM

Okay, scary.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/13/world...-22/index.html
Quote:

Nearly two-and-a-half years since the coronavirus pandemic began, the most infectious and transmissible variant yet has arrived.

Repeated Covid-19 waves have left millions of people dead, with only vaccines helping to blunt the toll. Now the virus is spreading again — evolving, escaping immunity and driving an uptick in cases and hospitalizations. The latest version of its shape-shifting, BA.5, is a clear sign that the pandemic is far from over.

The newest offshoot of Omicron, along with a closely related variant, BA.4, are fueling a global surge in cases — 30% over the past fortnight, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

What makes BA.5 different? Eric Topol, a cardiologist and professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research, has called BA.5 "the worst version of the virus we've seen." He explained in a recent newsletter: "It takes immune escape, already extensive, to the next level, and, as a function of that, enhanced transmissibility," well beyond earlier versions of Omicron.

In other words, BA.5 can easily evade immunity from previous infections and vaccines, increasing the risk of reinfection.

But then maybe not as scary as first thought.

Quote:

Though the variant does not appear to lead to more severe illness, in an interview with CNN on Monday, Topol said that given the extent of BA.5's immune evasion, he expects to see an escalation in hospitalizations, as we've seen in Europe and elsewhere that the variant has taken root. "One good thing is it doesn't appear to be accompanied by the ICU admissions and the deaths as previous variants, but this is definitely concerning," he added.

Ksyrup 07-13-2022 01:32 PM

Re the arguments back during 2020-21 about kids killing themselves because of lockdowns and not going to school:

https://twitter.com/tylerblack32/sta...64716426432512

Importantly, we do *not* see the trends predicted moral panic that following the "shutdowns" we would see a wave of suicides, and certainly we did not see a wave of pediatric suicides due to school closures (now with 21 months of measuring).

QuikSand 07-13-2022 01:35 PM

Serious immediate symptoms are one major worry of catching COVID. Most people have processed this, and in many cases have seen enough to have an intuitive sense that they are not at high risk of short term serious symptoms (ER, ICU, RIP).

Serious long term symptoms remain a nearly complete unknown for all of us, and hardly anyone has been able to process this reasonably. Looking around us offers strong evidence that most are simply dialing that risk consideration to near-zero as they weight what to be doing now.

Nearly all my office colleagues (just a dozen or so) have gotten COVID in the last 8 weeks (we have been working mainly remotely) as a small sample size - mostly educated, and all vaccinated. All mild cases, thankfully, but long term is unknown.

Edward64 07-13-2022 01:49 PM

I do wonder how come 4th shot (2nd booster) has not yet been approved for < 50. It's been April since it was approved for 50+.

I assume there's been no significant adverse impact to the 50+ population so why the hold up? And per the PBS article I linked to

Quote:

“Let me be clear, if you get vaccinated today, you’re not going to be ineligible to get the variants specific vaccine, as we get into the later part of fall and winter,” Jha said. “So, this is not a tradeoff,

And another article I linked said Pfizer and Moderna said their more updated vaccines will ready in Oct and late Oct/Nov.

So guessing FDA wanted to wait for the updated version before letting everyone get a shot (e.g. so there is less vaccination fatigue)?

RainMaker 07-13-2022 06:33 PM

Maybe funding is an issue? This is from a couple of months back but said they would limit it to high-risk patients (which seems to be what the 4th shot is limited to) if more funding wasn't approved.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/09/us-w...e-funding.html

RainMaker 07-13-2022 06:35 PM

I didn't realize that either and was about to book a 4th shot because a lot of people at work have been coming down with it and was surprised I couldn't do it.

Seems inevitable I'll get it so I wouldn't even have a problem just paying for that 4th shot if it meant I wouldn't be feeling like total shit for a week or two.

Ksyrup 07-14-2022 07:59 AM

So, our office's Mr. Rand Paul Covid Talking Points guy just tested positive for the third time. That's officially, anyway. He was sick about 6 weeks ago and has resisted testing in the past, so who knows how many times he's actually had it.

Edward64 07-14-2022 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ksyrup (Post 3372308)
So, our office's Mr. Rand Paul Covid Talking Points guy just tested positive for the third time. That's officially, anyway. He was sick about 6 weeks ago and has resisted testing in the past, so who knows how many times he's actually had it.


It is concerning how you can catch it again. You'd think the antibodies from the first time and/or from vaccinations would work well.

I'm sure there's a scientific explanation as it does seem to be happening. But still weird.

SirFozzie 07-14-2022 09:05 AM

The main shot and two-three boosters isn't enough (especially if you take immuno compromising medicine). I just got informed that I am COVID-positive. Time to hope my doc can get me into the infusion with the monoclonal antibodies, because several of my medicines interact poorly with the standard treatment program.

Kodos 07-14-2022 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3372314)
It is concerning how you can catch it again. You'd think the antibodies from the first time and/or from vaccinations would work well.

I'm sure there's a scientific explanation as it does seem to be happening. But still weird.


An article linked earlier in the thread basically says each time you get Covid, it weakens your defenses.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2022/07/...orever-Plague/

Quote:

COVID is paving the way for other diseases

So the virus is getting better at thwarting vaccines and evading immunity. Although vaccine protection against hospitalization and death remains strong, it is being steadily eroded by Omicron’s subvariants. Meanwhile protection against severe disease has declined as the effectiveness of our vaccines progressively wanes.

Immunologist Anthony Leonardi, a specialist in T cells, which play a complex role in immune function, predicted such a development nearly two years ago. That’s when he speculated that COVID was destabilizing the immune system by subverting T-cell function.

And that is exactly what many researchers are now finding.

Leonardi bluntly describes the current state of things on Twitter: “There is a cumulative damage from SARS-CoV-2 reinfections, and reinfections are not mild, the virus is intrinsically virulent. Immune memory does not turn a SARS into something like a flu. It remains severe.”

So if each COVID infection depletes T cells and destabilizes immune function and the damage is cumulative, then policies that allow the virus to run riot through the population will not only cause immense suffering but erode public health along with trust in government. The word diabolical comes to mind. The British immunologist Danny Altmann compares the situation to “being trapped on a rollercoaster in a horror film.”


Edward64 07-14-2022 09:31 AM

I like the "trapped on a rollercoaters in a horror film"!

No, I don't feel that way now but I that is a good description on how I felt back in 2020 and 2021 before the vaccines.

But yes, that is how I feel now regarding the stock market :)

Ksyrup 07-14-2022 09:36 AM

If that's the case, my office buddy has like 3 hit points left.

sterlingice 07-14-2022 10:44 AM

I think it does help to think about things in term of short term vs long term protection, too. In the above, we're talking about long term protection.

However, for short term, each booster (or infection) gives you a couple of months of immunity where your body is primed to fight off infection. But it is short term and the protection wanes fairly quickly.

SI

GrantDawg 07-14-2022 02:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirFozzie (Post 3372316)
The main shot and two-three boosters isn't enough (especially if you take immuno compromising medicine). I just got informed that I am COVID-positive. Time to hope my doc can get me into the infusion with the monoclonal antibodies, because several of my medicines interact poorly with the standard treatment program.

Man, hope everything goes ok Foz.


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