I love that the people sharing AI pics of Trump helping hurricane victims want to make everyone aware of AI now.

Trump currently doing some kind of forum today claiming he talks to Bibi daily. He constantly is openly admitting to violating the Logan act and nothing is done.

It takes four years of investigation to bring charges on crimes that happened out in the open where everyone can see. Like election tampering and the January 6th attack. Maybe in 2027 they will assign someone to investigate.

Early rumor: The video is of Trump groping a minor at one of his donor parties.

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There is this story too. I know why they wouldn't do it but the Epstein stuff with Trump was such a huge mistake to avoid.

Donald Trump groped me in what felt like a ‘twisted game’ with Jeffrey Epstein, former model alleges | Donald Trump | The Guardian

This Tim Sheehy story is a shocker to me. In a normal world, lying like that should be disqualifying but he'll probably win anyway.

Edit: Apparently, this story has been out there since April at least but I never heard about it until this week.

Don't jump to any conclusions from early voting stats. But....
https://x.com/ElectProject/status/18...ikpHAvYRQ&s=19

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Trump has put most of his eggs into one basket. If men without a college degree show up, he can win, but they haven't in the past and he's got a poor ground game.

Do we know how that compares to previous elections?

In the comments to the tweet, someone said it was 56/42 in 2016 which doesn't exactly fill me with confidence. But who knows how much of an apples and oranges comparison it is.

Glad to have a discussion with you.

I am going to continue this in the Immigration thread, starting at #433

Biden's Immigration Reform - Page 9 - Front Office Football Central

Things are so weird.

Two of Trump's former high-ranking staff members just came out and said that he's a Hitler-loving fascist who will rule like a dictator.

And the media is speculating about whether a newsworthy October surprise will happen or not.

Which isn't even to blame the media so much as to note how much Trump changed our whole sense of what is and isn't newsworthy.

I'm not sure what they would even consider a surprise at this point. At least, concerning Trump. Maybe they're just waiting (hoping?) for something about Harris.

They will just make something up

The Harris campaign should already have ads out featuring Tucker Carlson's introduction of Trump as Daddy coming home to give his little girl a spanking and the crowd chanting DADDY DADDY as Trump comes out. Weird doesn't even describe it. Unsettling, disturbing, I don't know. WTF?

I hear/see a lot of things out there that give me optimism for the election. Guys in my age group that have never voted before in their lives, not sure they are finally motivated to vote because they like Trump. Lots of republicans/former Trump voters confirming they voted for Harris. People that live in red areas running into more Harris/Walz support than Dems have ever received in those areas.

It's still going to be a nailbiter, but I am actually feeling better about things now.

T-12

I think Edward finally broke

And also widely reporting and discussing those statements. The media sucks in some ways, mostly in the predictable way it's a reflection of what society actually cares about, but it's not like they are ignoring this stuff.

And FWIW Trump has denied that he had the conversation. So unless there's a recording I doubt it moves any needles.

Tucker telling dads they need to spank their daughters and tell them they're bad girls is, well, there's no other word than weird.

Even if there was a recording they would claim it is fake or flat out agree with him

This election makes me feel like Mike McDermott sitting heads up, short stacked, against Teddy KGB, Grandma leering at me from the corner as Teddy says "don't worry, it will all be over soon."

We need Trump to start eating some oreos.

And in 12 days I may be able to start enjoying TV and streaming again.

It was such an incredibly powerful way to combat that stuff. Will never understand why they made him stop. Play one of these freaks videos and just end it with Walz saying "that's weird".

The clip also shows the truth behind authoritarianism stuff. People who want it want a child-like relationship with a parent state. I know they dress it up with a bunch of macho stuff but it's honestly a really sad and pathetic way to live. Treating an 80 year old perverted con artist as your daddy.

Apparently the "weird" angle of attack wasn't polling well so the Democrats dropped it.

Their polling was at its peak when they were doing it. Turned Vance into one of the most unlikable politicians in the country. Made Trump play defense. And from a quick search, it seems like polls were showing it worked.

All I can think of is that it wasn't popular with Republicans which the campaign seems to be focusing on for votes.

Not sure it matters much based on the states she needs, but Nevada is looking pretty grim. Ralston is like the guru of the state.




It may be wishful thinking or rationalization, but I did read an article that said that Nevadans adopted an automatic voter registration system in 2020 and has led to a pretty substantial increase in Indy/No Party Affiliation voters. Most of the triggers for the AVR are for things like DMV interactions and change of address, so a lot of younger voters, who tend to skew more to the Dems, make up a big chunk of the NPA voters (and it is an opt out situation, otherwise you are automatically registered).

If you are on Twitter/X, Andy Bloch and Dr. John Samuelson are good follows that explain it much better than I can, but in recent days they have both stated that they expected the typical early vote Dem firewall to be smaller than usual because of this change. So, not saying that Trump won't win Nevada, it has been close all year, but there is pretty decent reason to believe that their voter registration numbers are going to look a lot different than it has in the past and pretty good reason to believe that the unaffiliated voters skew younger, and more Dem.

I just can't be negative about Nevada until Dems finally lose. The culinary union machine always seems to be able to pull it out.

Though I wonder if that is the one place "no tax on tips" might matter

It is why she made the same promise but specifically targeted it to culinary workers.

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I think there should be a ban on early information from the early voting totals. I'm in favor of early voting, but there's a reason why not announcing any results until the polls close was always a thing.

One thing with those Nevada numbers is that the GOP is pushing much harder for early voting than in prior cycles. So it could just be that more Republicans are voting early and less will be there on election day.

The culinary union is incredibly strong and should pull substantial support. But they have soured on Democrats of late. State Dems passed a bill that gave business protections from civil lawsuits if their employees got sick and died due to poor health conditions. They also removed cleaning requirements at hotels and casinos that took away jobs. The union was able to negotiate that back in a contract, but it crushed their leverage and they were furious.

Also, a big factor in their support in 2020 was a push to raise the minimum wage that Biden ran on. He abandoned that quickly and that angered a lot of people there. Whether they hold the actions of Biden and the State Democrats against Harris is something we'll see in a couple weeks. Although I don't think Nevada is going to be a tipping point state.

These are not results. They are just the number of registered voters that have voted.

Right. I mean, I get what Brian is saying, but not releasing these numbers also would seem like withholding information and be made out to be nefarious. I'm more troubled that there is already early voter exit polling. That to me is more problematic.

Ralston has his blog updated. Kind of a mixed bag. Most interesting data point is Republicans are getting a bump from people who haven't voted in the past couple elections.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...ting-blog-2024

Maybe because they're getting bribed by Elon?

If the low propensity voters numbers keep at this rate, NV is going to go red. If those numbers are the same nationwide things would look really good for Trump.

I know it's probably too in the weeds or academic for most voters (which is partly whyTrump keeps hammering it), but I don't see enough push back on the tariffs thing. I don't know if it's come straight from Trump, but "his people" seem to be doubling down on the tariffs idea by suggesting we could get rid of federal taxes altogether and just institute tariffs which will result in more money for Americans because they won't pay for it, the other countries will (I haven't seen a discussion of this that says this is a valid summary of how tariffs work).

Is this just a matter where he's saying stupid things (even if he believes them) and it's pointless to argue back because no one wants to go through the exercise of explaining an economic policy for fear of glazed eyes staring back or a "no tax good idea" response?

It is the equivalent of build the wall. It is a simple solution to a complex problem that appeals to those who lack the ability to think critically. Anyone with a brain knew Mexico wasn't going to pay for the wall just like anyone with a brain knows foreign nations aren't going to eat the cost of a tariff without not only passing the cost to the consumer, but also slapping tariffs on the goods we export. Last time he was in charge he ruined countless farmers and cost the taxpayers billions in handouts, at least to the ones who didn't commit suicide.

It's both. Right above what I posted is a statement about the current margin in Nevada. That is results, but I think number of registered voters is the same issue.

Mitch McConnell's got some balls to say now that J6 was an impeachable offense. When it really mattered he decided to largely stay on the sidelines. We could be rid of Trump if he had worked as hard on impeachment as he did to capture the court.

He will be remembered as the true villain in all of this. Trump is and always has been a truly terrible person but the people who knew that and enabled him or used him to advance themselves or agendas are worse.

He also endorsed him for the current cycle because "team".

Some decent microtargeting Harris news out of PA

New PA bellwether county releases from @muhlenberg_poll's recent PA-07 poll.

�� POTUS

Northampton

�� Harris: 51% (+4)
�� Trump: 47%

Lehigh

�� Harris: 52% (+7)
�� Trump: 45%

Northampton and Lehigh were 49.8-49.1 and 53.2-45.6 for Biden, respectively.

— Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) October 24, 2024

Later in the thread, he also has Harris doing better than Biden in a very Trumpy county.

That’s my county. I’m seeing a lot of Harris signs here. There are die hard Trumpanzees here too but I’m seeing so much more Harris support.

Trump is gonna be in Allentown next Tuesday so he must know he’s vulnerable.

My buddy lives in Northhampton county. Has 2 daughters who will be voting in their first election. Them and all their friends are all voting Harris.

I really think if Harris wins it will be young women who pull her across the line

"Northampton and Lehigh were 49.8-49.1 and 53.2-45.6 for Biden, respectively."

Does that mean that Biden won those areas by those margins, or those were his final polling numbers in those areas? That's an important distinction, because he underperformed in PA vs his polling numbers.