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-   -   POTUS 2016 General Election Discussion Thread (https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc//showthread.php?t=91538)

lighthousekeeper 11-08-2016 11:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Warhammer (Post 3127880)
Well, we were warned about the impending apocalypse last week when the Cubs won.


:lol:

Mizzou B-ball fan 11-08-2016 11:39 PM

Georgia to Trump per Fox News.

tarcone 11-08-2016 11:40 PM

Michigan

sabotai 11-08-2016 11:41 PM

On the bright side, for either side, regardless of who wins, I'm almost certain the next President will end up being a 1 term President. I don't see how either turns their "unlikable" numbers around and the other side just has to run someone who is likable and will probably win.

CrescentMoonie 11-08-2016 11:42 PM

Is there a reason why CNN hasn't called Georgia for Trump yet?

sabotai 11-08-2016 11:42 PM

Last time Clinton was in Wisconsin was in April.

Scarecrow 11-08-2016 11:43 PM

2 Paths to President Trump:

1. Michigan
2. NH + AZ + AK

Coffee Warlord 11-08-2016 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrescentMoonie (Post 3127888)
Is there a reason why CNN hasn't called Georgia for Trump yet?


CNN has been super slow to call quite a few states tonight.

CrescentMoonie 11-08-2016 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord (Post 3127891)
CNN has been super slow to call quite a few states tonight.


Pretty sure Google called it over an hour ago.

Butter 11-08-2016 11:46 PM

NYT is projecting NH to Clinton. If that happens and she wins Nevada and Michigan, it's a fuckin' tie. Assuming Pennsylvania also.

sabotai 11-08-2016 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord (Post 3127891)
CNN has been super slow to call quite a few states tonight.


Lots of people still remember what happened in 2000.

PilotMan 11-08-2016 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3127893)
NYT is projecting NH to Clinton. If that happens and she wins Nevada and Michigan, it's a fuckin' tie.


Which is still a loss for Clinton.

molson 11-08-2016 11:48 PM

Interesting to see who got this the most wrong. The Huffington Post and PredictWise models had Clinton at 98%+

2016 Election Forecast: Who Will Be President? - The New York Times

JonInMiddleGA 11-08-2016 11:49 PM

Still feeling cruel joke outcome at the very end,possibly even with a "called" state being flipped.

No,I'm not suggesting corrupt shenanigans.
I might be suggesting I feel a little "drama enhancement" by networks hoping to retain viewers.

JonInMiddleGA 11-08-2016 11:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sabotai (Post 3127894)
Lots of people still remember what happened in 2000.


Agreed.

And I don't blame CNN one iota for taking their time. The outcome doesn't change based on any timestamp.

EagleFan 11-08-2016 11:50 PM

So many mixed emotions. Can't stand him at all but hate her with a passion. It would be like watching the Patriots beat the Cowboys in the super bowl.

Edward64 11-08-2016 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarcone (Post 3127878)
You know this was expected, right? This was an indicator of who would win. It will be a buyers market tomorrow.


I've got some cash sitting in my brokerage account. Any suggestions on what I should by besides the S&P index?

EagleFan 11-08-2016 11:53 PM

PA is getting tighter but not sure if enough votes left to flip that one. Michigan is getting close, that one could turn.

Mizzou B-ball fan 11-08-2016 11:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King of New York (Post 3127883)
Thinking ahead some more: does a Trump win embolden the Freedom Caucus in the House of Representatives to revolt against and depose Ryan?


Funny you should say that. Sean Hannity was just on Fox News and said there was 'no way' that Ryan retains his speaker of the House position.

QuikSand 11-08-2016 11:54 PM

So, it looks like there was some fundamental issue with polling in this particular election. One that effectively was not present four years ago, so it doesn't seem like you can be as simple as "pollsters are stupid."

I guess the first draft idea might be that Donald Trump is a certain type of candidate, whose support was repressed in conventional polling methods. That somehow people who supported him, or who eventually supported him, or unwilling to tell a pollster as much.

All through the election, I felt there was a weakness in the pedantic nature of the Democratic argument. Every time some luminary, general, past president, Nobel prize winner, or whomever shuck a finger at voters telling them not to vote for Donald Trump… It oddly reinforced his message of change and bucking the system.

tarcone 11-08-2016 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3127903)
So, it looks like there was some fundamental issue with polling in this particular election. One that effectively was not present four years ago, so it doesn't seem like you can be as simple as "pollsters are stupid."

I guess the first draft idea might be that Donald Trump is a certain type of candidate, whose support was repressed in conventional polling methods. That somehow people who supported him, or who eventually supported him, or unwilling to tell a pollster as much.

All through the election, I felt there was a weakness in the pedantic nature of the Democratic argument. Every time some luminary, general, past president, Nobel prize winner, or whomever shuck a finger at voters telling them not to vote for Donald Trump… It oddly reinforced his message of change and bucking the system.


Welcome to the conversation

PilotMan 11-08-2016 11:57 PM

I can't wait until the mass arrests of political and press opponents begin. Go 'merica!

Mizzou B-ball fan 11-08-2016 11:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by QuikSand (Post 3127903)
So, it looks like there was some fundamental issue with polling in this particular election. One that effectively was not present four years ago, so it doesn't seem like you can be as simple as "pollsters are stupid."

I guess the first draft idea might be that Donald Trump is a certain type of candidate, whose support was repressed in conventional polling methods. That somehow people who supported him, or who eventually supported him, or unwilling to tell a pollster as much.

All through the election, I felt there was a weakness in the pedantic nature of the Democratic argument. Every time some luminary, general, past president, Nobel prize winner, or whomever shuck a finger at voters telling them not to vote for Donald Trump… It oddly reinforced his message of change and bucking the system.


Simply put, the 'deplorables' and white male electorate showed up in big numbers in response to the beating that they took from Clinton and her supporters. Also, they WAY overestimated the 'female candidate' effect on the female voters. It didn't come through for them like they thought it would.

sabotai 11-08-2016 11:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Edward64 (Post 3127900)
I've got some cash sitting in my brokerage account. Any suggestions on what I should by besides the S&P index?


Not sure if you're joking or not, but this could be a silver lining for me. I've been waiting for a stumble in the S&P Index to put some money into an index fund (I didn't say I was being smart about it...that money should probably already be there). If it drops a good amount over the next day or two, it'll be time for me to pull the trigger on that.

Ben E Lou 11-08-2016 11:58 PM

This guy wins Twitter.



sabotai 11-09-2016 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan (Post 3127901)
PA is getting tighter but not sure if enough votes left to flip that one. Michigan is getting close, that one could turn.


36k separate them with 87% in...and the liberal stronghold of Philadelphia is just about all reported. Pittsburgh is only 25% in, though. It's going to tight.

Ben E Lou 11-09-2016 12:04 AM

MSNBC seems to hinting that the remaining PA votes are going to give it to Trump.

molson 11-09-2016 12:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sabotai (Post 3127907)
Not sure if you're joking or not, but this could be a silver lining for me. I've been waiting for a stumble in the S&P Index to put some money into an index fund (I didn't say I was being smart about it...that money should probably already be there). If it drops a good amount over the next day or two, it'll be time for me to pull the trigger on that.


Could be, but I can't be the only one who is now planning on holding off on the new car purchase, delaying some home improvements, trying to save more money, wanting to see where things go. Of course if you're right, it's a bigger opportunity for you to cash in on my potentially irrational economic fear.

Brian Swartz 11-09-2016 12:06 AM

Wow. Trump has now edged into the lead in Pennsylvania.

Butter 11-09-2016 12:07 AM

As a Democrat, you know who I blame? Joe Biden. He wins this easily.

Rachel Maddow on MSNBC had appeared to about lose it a few times.

Trump is about to take Pennsylvania, it seems.

We're going to get to see what a total outsider governing looks like. As I heard someone mention recently, up until three years ago, Trump was a Democrat. So who the hell knows.

EagleFan 11-09-2016 12:07 AM

PA is only a 5K difference now. Didn't see that coming.

molson 11-09-2016 12:07 AM

Interesting that, according to 538, Clinton only got 65 percent among Latinos. Trump did much better than Romney did with Latinos. I'm having a hard time buying any polling, exit or otherwise, but we seem to have underestimated the number of Latinos who share Trumps views on Mexicans.

RainMaker 11-09-2016 12:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PilotMan (Post 3127882)


Progressives don't want to go to Mexico? Why not?

Mizzou B-ball fan 11-09-2016 12:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3127915)
Interesting that, according to 538, Clinton only got 65 percent among Latinos. Trump did much better than Romney did with Latinos. I'm having a hard time buying any polling, exit or otherwise, but we seem to have underestimated the number of Latinos who share Trumps views on Mexicans.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that they included Cuban-Americans in that numbers. Those voters actually voted for Trump more than Clinton. I think this is another clear example of where the models failed pretty badly, especially in Florida.

Ben E Lou 11-09-2016 12:10 AM

Trump has a legit shot at 300 EV.

sabotai 11-09-2016 12:11 AM

Seth Meyers, this is all your fault!

molson 11-09-2016 12:11 AM

Who do we nominate to start the Trump presidency thread?

PilotMan 11-09-2016 12:12 AM

The America that I thought I lived in, or that we were heading to is now dead. This was a once in a lifetime opportunity for Democrats to change the SCOTUS. With the next president likely to seat at least 2, possibly 3 on the court, there will never be another chance to get back here in my lifetime. That's a disturbing thought.

RainMaker 11-09-2016 12:12 AM

Maybe this will end the fascination on math nerds trying to tell us who will win.

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/2016s-...ilver-sam-wang

Coffee Warlord 11-09-2016 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz (Post 3127912)
Wow. Trump has now edged into the lead in Pennsylvania.


Pittsburgh is holding back on reporting. Trump's not getting PA.

molson 11-09-2016 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter (Post 3127913)
As a Democrat, you know who I blame? Joe Biden. He wins this easily.



Fuck Cancer.

Though I think Sanders pulls it out if Biden jumped in.

Butter 11-09-2016 12:12 AM

Waiting for Fox News to call it. Surely they'll be the first.

sabotai 11-09-2016 12:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainMaker (Post 3127917)
Progressives don't want to go to Mexico? Why not?


Dude, it's hot there. I can't even stand summer in New Jersey.

tarcone 11-09-2016 12:12 AM

I got into an election bracket. It was who wins this and who wins that.

I said Trump would win with 272 EVs.

I think I was the only one who chose Trump in his pool. He is a NEA Dem

RainMaker 11-09-2016 12:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou (Post 3127919)
Trump has a legit shot at 300 EV.


I think Trump winning is shocking but the fact he's going to blow her out is remarkable. Like this isn't even looking like it'll be close.

Neon_Chaos 11-09-2016 12:13 AM

Ahhhhh. America, it is refreshing to see that you are not immune to the wave of WTF that has been sweeping the globe in 2016.

TroyF 11-09-2016 12:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan (Post 3127906)
Simply put, the 'deplorables' and white male electorate showed up in big numbers in response to the beating that they took from Clinton and her supporters. Also, they WAY overestimated the 'female candidate' effect on the female voters. It didn't come through for them like they thought it would.



People are ANGRY and have been for awhile. Not just the white males. And nobody likes to be called an idiot because they were going to vote one way.

The Republicans thought if you ignored him, he would go away. They decided to attack him late in the primaries. The democrats decided to just attack him. Hillary tried to play the "gotchya" card in the debates. Everyone, including me, thought all she had to do was show up and she would end up winning.

The problem is that's how she viewed it as well. She took things for granted. She didn't feel the need to go to Wisconsin. She kept attacking Trump rather than talking about the issues. In short, she was a horrible, horrible candidate and was from the start.

I'm shocked at this, but in hindsight I shouldn't have been. I HATE what is going to happen tonight, but there are very clear reasons why it did.

King of New York 11-09-2016 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by molson (Post 3127921)
Who do we nominate to start the Trump presidency thread?


FOFC should invite Nate Silver to join and start the thread.

tarcone 11-09-2016 12:14 AM

Why does it take some states longer to report than others?

Mizzou B-ball fan 11-09-2016 12:14 AM

Karl Rove mentioned that this is the highest percentage of third party voting since 1996. Over 5% of people voted for 'someone else'.


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