Last post was 2/3, so the below stats are 1 month later. The previous months run rate was +1.5%. Looks like this month its +.9%.

> 12 is at 73.5% up from 72.6%.

At least one dose ...

> 12 is at 86.1% up from 85.2%.

hey guys. an updates. I think I am FINALLY over the whole covid thing!

My headache has FINALLY gone away.
I am still clearing the back of my throat a little from drainage but I suspect there's some allergy action going on. The wheezy feeling in my chest is finally gone. I'm not as exhausted after working.
I'm am very very thankful.
And cannot believe businesses think it is okay to do away with masks and policies to keep us safe :(

Looks like HK is having major issues with Covid right now.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/05/asia/...dst/index.html
Not sure why immunization rates are "lagging". You'd think HK (like China) can mandate vaccinations.

Glad you are getting better CF :)

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/02/healt...eer/index.html

And....animals have it now....and mutation will be a whole new ballgame. I really do hope this is the one that can change me into an animal...

Another outbreak in China. Nothing near what we experienced. Arguably, China did this right with their rapid response, strict quarantines etc. If Trump/Biden tried to do the same in the US, there would be an uprising. But it does seem to work for China.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/11/china...hnk/index.html
What caught my eye was possible shift in zero-covid policy. Don't think I've read an acknowledgement from China before.

Much of the world is opening up. China is definitely on the back part of the curve but my guess is they'll be forced to reckon with slowly opening and a populace that is largely vaccinated but don't have the Omi/Delta "natural vaccinations/antibodies" (e.g. because there was not a massive outbreak there). Their Sino vaccines don't work as well with reports between 50-80%. If we assume the lower end of 50%, its still pretty good compared with flu shots.

Is this going to be a pay me now or pay me later? What will happen when China reopens albeit slowly? I lean towards China handling this well but at the cost of civil rights. It wouldn't have worked in the US but that doesn't mean it's not the right approach for China.

I do want China to re-open quickly. There are places I want to visit and food I want to eat. But my guess is very restricted travel through end of year and then reopening like other western countries in 2023.

If you were going to buy an Apple product, recommend you buy it now because Apple's supply chain may be impacted with new outbreak.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/14/appl...acts.%E2%80%9D

US extended the mask requirement on airlines and all public transportation until April 18th, but it seems as if it will go away if we continue with the downswing in positives. I fly to SD in mid-April, so I'll still have to wear a mask for that trip, but I'm hoping it will be gone by June when we go to Hawaii.

Kids under 5 vaccine in May.

Pfizer CEO says fourth COVID shot will be needed, shots for young kids could start in May

well yes I'm getting a fourth shot no matter what any fuckface says

And I'm still wearing my mask in the grocery store. This weekend I did my weekly shop and not one, not two, but three people I ran into had coughing fits in my vicinity. Were they wearing masks? Like fuck they were. In a grocery story, no less. One that still does curbside pickup.

People are assholes.

I had considered that my trip last week to California might have been the last with the mask...but it's likely I'll get another in before then.

Flying to England on 4/15.

I think they keep the mandate through spring break/Easter weekend then lift it.

Europe is starting to see another potential spike so that remains to be seen.

SI

And China is fighting to contain the latest outbreaks. China's done great in containing prior outbreaks. I thought covid couldn't be contained but was wrong the prior 2 years. Omicron may be extra hard with its transmissibility.

Who wins. Nukes or a virus?

Australia's case numbers are growing again. We had our worst numbers ever over December and January - our summer. Things were beginning to subside but today's numbers took a big jump.

This is beginning to be quite noticeable at my high school. Attendance numbers are falling and it is quite obvious in many of my classes.

This is from my own spreadsheet on Australian cases since the start of the pandemic (date format is DDMMYY).

Australia has 81% vaccination rate and 48% with +booster so you guys are doing pretty good. Hopefully those infections won't translate proportionally to deaths.

I've got a Kickstarter project pending that is in production at Shenzhen; they've been told their lockdown is going to end on March 21st, so just a one-week shutdown. Take it with a grain of salt, but it appears they're optimistic it's going to be a quick, temporary inconvenience.

Actually we are doing better than that. The figures posted about us at the aggregation sites seem to be lagging quite a bit.

We have 94.8% of people over the age of 16 double vaxed.
59.7% have had the booster (ages 16+).

I get all of my data from a site that collects public health releases across the country.
3,715,615 Coronavirus cases in Australia - COVID Live

Australia really did put most of the world to shame in their handling of COVID. That's some incredible work.

More covid to come. If western Europe is dealing with it now, its inevitable we'll have to deal with it also. Yet to be seen how dangerous (hospitalizations vs infectious) it is.

A covid surge in Western Europe has U.S. bracing for another wave

Yeah, signal is getting stronger for another surge in 4-6 weeks here in the US as wastewater is starting to show signs of increase. Ideally, that's when you put some restrictions back into place temporarily to help blunt the wave. However, I think a lot of people are running out of appetite for that sort of thing.

I'm still reminded of a blog post at the very start of this, The Hammer and the Dance, that basically described this to a T. And, yet, as a society, we're just not going to be willing to do some minor inconveniences because we all want to get back to a "normal" state of mind.

SI

When the tools have been on the table for quite some time, and there has been no relative movement in the direction you want to go, it's time to buck up and say "cool, this is what they want, this is what they get". I've got no more patience to go out of my way to protect those who refuse to help themselves.

The next question should be the extent that we'll allow those individuals to sink the system with their own choices and ruin it for the rest of society.

At this point, the question I have is, what does this variant look like? If it looks like Omicron, I'll take my chances with getting the first cold I've had in 2.5 years. I'm fully vaxxed and will wear a mask in public voluntarily if I think I'm in too crowded a place. I don't need the government to tell me what to do - I've been through this drill enough at this point.

I just got off a cruise ship, and spent 2 days near the beach in Ft Lauderdale with the rest of spring break humanity. I didn't wear a mask unless it was required, and it was only required in a few places. It was very nice to not even think about covid, even with the boat being at ~85% capacity. There were only a few token people who wore masks, as of March 1, you no longer were required to be masked indoors.

I think it is continuing to morph into endemic status, and I'm good with accepting that and moving onward in that direction. I'm sure people will still die, but again, we have multiple diseases that cause death. We'll continue to work towards best practices and vaccines, but we really should have reached a point where the abject fear and unknowns regarding it are behind us.

People are not going back to any prevention measures whatsoever. For whatever it got them, the MAGAs won that battle.

It is stupid, but there's a lot of stupid stuff we live with because conservatives don't like having their feelings hurt.

All we can do at this point is keep ourselves max vaxxed and hope that long Covid isn't as bad as some people fear.

I don't see it as MAGA's won the battle, science won the battle because we created a vaccine that is being distributed worldwide, and the overall risk is lower, and the most recent genetic mutations of the virus are more beneficial to the virus than the original virus itself. What I mean is that it spreads faster, kills slower, and overall adds to the spread and survival of the virus itself. The fact that we end up moving to a system where people no longer need to worry as much about protocols doesn't mean MAGA's won. It means that we've progressed, and that science works, just because they look to have similar ends doesn't justify their positions.

THEY think they won because, after 1M+ people died, vaccines were created, and we implemented a slew of social policies intended to keep people safe, we are now at the point - 2+ years later - that they claimed we were at in March/April of 2020.

"We were right all along."

I've heard that argument several times recently. There was no reason for the lockdowns or vaccines because this was always the glorified flu just like we said it was way back when.

Possibly related: US COVID deaths have only just dropped to the point where it takes three or four days to toll an entire 9/11 death count, rather than one or two days. Remember 9/11, the day where thousands of Americans died and we pledged to never again let anything like that happen?

And we've decided COVID is over. While cases and deaths are on the rise all around us, for reasons we fully understand and can absolutely mitigate. But we aren't going to.

"I'm over it" has won the day. And I am right there with most everyone, complicit.

Are we supposed to still be locking down?

The risk of COVID isn't close to significant enough to deprive myself of important life events and experiences anymore. I guess that's complicity, but it's also a knowing choice. I'm going to go out to dinner tonight even though I might die in a car accident on the way. I'm going to take a bunch of risks tomorrow too. It's not a moral failing to decide to live our lives despite some small risk. It's a choice of how to balance mental health v. physical health risks.

"Acting like COVID is over" and "being over it" sound like negative sentiments, and I don't know if they're intended that way, but I think they're very positive things for most people. We're wired to be resilient and to move forward even if there's obstacles. I don't think that's a MAGA thing.

No, I don't really have a criticism for where we are right now... I'll be at a restaurant without a mask today too, I suspect.

I am worried, though, that if/when metrics in my area rise back to the point where it's sensible/obvious to be taking precautions, that both our populace and our political leaders have simply run dry on willingness to do so, and we will end up abetting the next spike by our inability to react wisely to it. It seems very obvious to me this is where we are going to be in a few weeks here on the east coast. Lots of cases, lots of hospitalized, but not very many people reacting in the easy ways.

So, to answer your obvious strawman, no I am not "lockdown forever over any degree of risk." I have been in favor of "do the sensible things when the situation merits it," but it seems like the median on what that constitutes has moved in the last several weeks. When both our neighborhood hospital and indoor tavern are overflowing at the same time, we're doing it wrong.

So you're saying we shouldn't be going out now? Or later, when cases increase?

If you know cases are going to increase, and there's already signs of it now, why are you going out to dinner tonight?

I guess I just kind of resent the criticism that we're "acting like COVID is over", or that we should consider COVID deaths the same as 9/11 deaths and respond and act accordingly, or that seeing friends and going out means that "MAGA won".

I know COVID isn't over. I'll probably always deal with the collateral effects and all the way COVID changed my life for the worse. I'm trying to crawl back, but some things are beyond my control. I don't feel bad for anti-vaxxers at hospitals. I do feel bad for the innocent people at hospitals impacted by the anti-vaxxers, though that impact has reduced for now. I've thought about how what I do or don't do may impact them and have struggled with that. But I don't think trying to move forward impacts them to a degree where I'm morally required to take on more damage to my life and mental health. I've never had a COVID symptom, I've never tested positive (and tested negative many times), and I've gotten every vaccine as soon as I could. I'm not sure what else I'm supposed to be doing or not doing to not "act like COVID is over", or how else I'm supposed to acknowledge the 9/11-esque daily quantities of deaths, or how else I'm supposed to not be a part of MAGA's victory. When I ask more about specifics of those things there's never really an answer. Like we're not really required to do anything different, except acknowledge that we're bad for having that perspective.

Two bits of good news here:


1) This thread hasn't been bumped in a week


2)Local Hospital has no new COVID hospitalizations for four straight days and those were the first in 2 years.

Airlines want to remove masks. I think they should be the last to remove masks especially on long flights so I'd give it another 2-3 months assuming nothing major happens and assuming they still do the pre-flight covid checks to enter the country.

I think they should require them on the ground and takeoff and landing, but mid flight they should ditch them. And keep them then, only if they are still requiring them in the airport.

I suppose we're going to find out about whether our collective immunity (either from infection or vaccine) holds because the BA2 Omicron variant is fast becoming the dominant strain in the US and spreads 80% faster than the OG. Hopefully our days of massive surges are over and we'll be in line for a booster by the fall to protect during winter, similar to how we protect for the flu.

We take this for granted, but it is completely insane when you take a step back and think about it.

I'm trying to figure out what the x-axis is measuring

SI

It is a measure of statistical significance for that modeling technique. I think of it like an index, so 200 is twice as significant as average.

It's just a bar chart, each factor relative to the other

Who you voted for is 6x a bigger indicator on vaccination status compared to where you live :wow:

I'm just used to seeing, say, r or r^2 for correlation. Was trying to figure out how that scale worked. I showed it to my wife, who works in scientific editing and she couldn't figure it out, either. Like I get the basics: Pres vote correlated stronger than any other variable to vaccination status. But without proper scale, I'm having a hard timed determining how much.

SI

I'm actually surprised the gap isn't bigger. None of that really is much of a surprise to me.

It is now being reported that Florida's vaccination numbers might be artificially inflated (by around half a million) by people who came to Florida to get a vaccine and then left--including many people from South American and Central American countries who flew to Florida, lied about their residency to get a jab, and flew back.

And the Florida government has announced no plans to investigate or take any actions.

Which shows just how deep anti-vax has gotten in the GOP. You have a story where non-white non-Americans came here and illegally obtained something free that our tax dollars paid for and that was supposed to just be for Americans.

Normally, that would be the GOP campaign talking point going into 2022. They would be demanding hearings. The New York Times would have a special sidebar on their webpage dedicated to the story for months.

But, because investigating/cracking down on this could make the GOP leaders in Florida look kinda sorta not anti-vax, they are just going to sweep it under the rug.

I had guessed in an earlier post that China would gradually ease these lockdowns after the Olympics and accept the incremental deaths as other countries are doing now. Guess I was wrong.

Shanghai imposes lockdown in effort to control omicron outbreak | TheHill

Shanghai likely waited too long to shutdown, they're at great risk.

2nd booster authorized for regular folks 50+.

Kind of an old article, no? Or is there recent relevance I'm missing?

My bad. Meant to post it with this. A study came out that showed that once white people found out that Covid was hurting racial minorities disproportionately, they took it less seriously.

The Supreme Court was just an anecdote. The Chief Justice didn't view meatpackers as "regular people" because they were mostly minorities.

ScienceDirect

Basically, the conclusion was that for public health issues, don't mention that there is a racial disparity because that changes how people react.

So, we'll see whether we (all of us, collectively) have it in us to change our behavior, as the latest variant is clearly here. Numbers are shooting up again... remains to be seen about the "severity" but... I remain deeply skeptical that we have the ability to put the toothpaste back into the tube at this point.

“Barely a month after declaring the “all clear” and lifting indoor mask requirements, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health is once again issuing a warning…Over the past ten days, cases in Philadelphia have increased more than 50%” https://t.co/tnq4df3IPR

— Beatrice Adler-Bolton (@realLandsEnd) April 5, 2022

Warnings, again. Urging people to take precautions. Stuff like that.

But politicians read polls, and they don't dare do mask mandates or anything like that... it's deeply underwater, even with people who were on board through most of 2020 and 2021.

So, we'll do... close to nothing? Perhaps.

I think 2 years in, it's fair to point out all of the tools we have to fight the next variant. I'm not even sure it's so much about "not having it in us" as it is about accepting a risk for which we are adequately protected (or have been given a year to get protected). Unless a variant comes along that severely ramps up the hospitalizations and death rate, I'll decide whether to modify my behavior to wear masks indoors again, but this is the situation we spent 2 years trying to get to, right? Masking, vaccinations, boosters, natural immunity ... we are able to live with it. This feels like the point where collective action hands the baton to personal accountability, and your life is as valuable as you choose to treat it.

I guess so.

Maybe I was the naive one... thinking that maybe this would settle in when we got things settled down to, idano... 100 US deaths a day? Rather than an order of magnitude higher than that.

Under ideal circumstances - some of which are dependent on the virus, not us - that might have been reasonable. But given the way we've governed and personally acted, I suppose in some ways we're lucky to have gotten this far.

About 93% of those deaths are unvaccinated people. So that's about 30 deaths of vaccinated people a day out of the 475 or so per day currently. And that's before getting into whatever other ailments people in that group of 30 also have.

hadn't thought about those numbers quite that bluntly, I suppose... maybe that will help me resolve my inner conflict about all this

We're flying to England a week from today.

My daughters best friends mom tested positive for covid yesterday. Her daughter was here for 2 hours yesterday literally shoulder to shoulder with my daughter on her bed. The mom tested after she picked her up. The daughter tested negative.

Mom just called, daughter is now positive. Gonna test my daughter tomorrow but I have a very bad feeling.

Welcome to the new normal for the next year or so.

We are good!

Unless she develops symptoms we aren't testing her again

You'll have to test her within 24-48 hours of the flight (unless that has changed very recently).

I've got a trip planned. I decided to pay a little more for 1 alliance partner vs misc airlines for the convenience that, if I had to cancel because I tested positive, I can just call one number.

Nope.

Not anymore. We have to test when we come back but the UK has lifted all restrictions

Yay Lathum's family!!

Last post was 3/2, so about a month later.

> 12 is 74.1% up from 73.5%

At least one dose ...

> 12 is 86.7% up from 86.1%

So previous month's 3/2 run rate was about +.9%. This month's run rate is about .6%.

Slow as molasses.

I thought we were mostly out of it in Ontario (Canada). It's back again. They currently estimate that 5% of the population of the province has an active case, based on wastewater analysis. This is a direct result of the lifting of mask mandates, which I enjoyed for a few days at least. Based on the # of cases out there, I've got the mask back on.

Right or wrong, I'm not focused on cases but more on hospitalizations/deaths for the vaccinated & boosted. Yeah, I'm walking around pretty much everywhere without a mask on (except where mandated like at my dentist).

Haven't made it to the movies yet. But have told wife that I'll be going to see Top Gun 2.

The mask mandate at airports is next level stupid. I’m currently at Newark. Take away the massive amounts of people eating and drinking unmasked and you still have every third person either flat out not wearing one or wearing it below their nose or around their chins.

Not sure how I feel about this. I wouldn't mind if it stays on for another couple months but think I'm okay with this. I assume we are still requiring 24-48 hour testing for inbound international flights.

TSA won't enforce mask-wearing on planes, public transit after Florida court ruling voids mandate - MarketWatch

No mask for my flight home on Saturday. Hallelujah!

I just did a trip to San Diego masked. Bad timing. Although, it really wasn't that bad. I had one of those blue/white masks that are fairly loose. Curious if there will be an appeal, not for masking now but in case they want to re-implement it in the future. Hopefully this new status quo remains in place for my June/July trip to Hawaii.

Given the speed at which not only airlines rescinded but states are doing away on public transportation we aren’t going back. They know it’s wildly popular.

I won't. It was far, far beyond time to let it go.

Here comes variant B slicing through the airtravelers! yay!

Going to Mexico next month - will probably be extra careful the few days before, and on the flight there, because getting stuck in Mexico would be really inconvenient.

Edit: We've also invested in the at-home telehealth tests that are approved for people returning to the U.S. The small Mexico town we're going to has one approved COVID testing facility and they price it very high for tourists, so hopefully this works better.

If it's mild for those who have all of the vaccine protections, does it matter? It becomes as inconvenient as a cold.

I'll consider getting the second booster before we go to Hawaii just because it will be over 6 months since I had the first one and it should help some with waning immunity, but I'll take my chances against being one of the statistically microscopic number of people who are otherwise completely healthy, get a mild variant, and it blows up into something significant/deadly.

The point we're at right now is where all of the MUH FREEDOM! people tried to pretend we were at from summer 2020 through Delta. We were not. Unless we get a variant that drastically increases the severity for healthy, vaccinated people, I don't see why we would go back.

are you saying you won't wear a mask? I would obviously love your thoughts on it.

Have you flown recently?

I'll be doing the EMed one Friday. I will let you know how it goes. Hoping I don't get stuck in England, although could be worse as we are staying with my SIL so it wouldn't be a terrible inconvenience. The bitch would be if part of us are positive and part negative. Wife and I already agreed if on adult and either one or both kids are negative they take the kids home and leave the other behind.

Going to a nerd convention this weekend (Jordancon), and they are still requiring masks at all events. It is sort-of sucky, but at least the people there won't have to look at my ugly mug.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

Not a big fan of Jordan's writing (but like the TV adaptation). Reminds me that I need to attend DragonCon this year.

Read up on Guests.

Steve Jackson (GURPS) is a guest. I played DnD in college but also played TFT (The Fantasy Trip). I have to try dig up the books and get him to sign them!

No. Not in a plane, not in the airport, not on the buses from the parking lot.

Since I've been fully vaccinated, I haven't worn a mask anywhere for the most part, unless I was legally required to. I've flown numerous times, obviously worked, taken a cruise, ridden the train, eaten out, shopped, basically tried to live a normal life. The only issue with airports is the spread of the virus through connecting hubs to other countries. I think it's reasonable to keep those in place as long as people are transiting those places going to other places, that haven't had access to the vaccines, in order to limit that sort of spread. Otherwise, we're seeing dominant strains that are far less dangerous when coupled with vaccines and boosters.

I met Steve Jackson in 1989-90. He came to the hobby store I worked at as a guess. This would have been about the time Cyberpunk was coming out.

We all passed. It was super easy. You don't open the box until it is time to test. We did EMed. You download the Navica app. Through the Emed site you log in using the Navica credentials. They connect you through video with someone who walks you through and monitors the test. The hardest part was understanding them because they obviously aren't American. Get the results in 15 minutes. From there I logged in to my United account and was able to import the results.

Which Emed? The 6 pack? Do you have any left, I’ll buy a couple.

Yeah. The six pack. We have two left but are gonna save them because we can just use them if we need to test.

Does someone famous catching covid really warrant a headline anymore? Especially if there are no symptoms or complications?

Case in point here is Kamala Harris. I wish her all the luck that she doesn't have any problems with it but I just don't see how this is headline news anymore.

I'm also generally curious why was she tested?

I'm travelling in SE Asia right now. These folks take this very seriously. Masks everywhere even inside hotels, temperature checks (put your hand up against the machine), hand sanitizers everywhere etc.

I saw a older white guy with a respirator mask on, similar to Access denied

That's a little too much though.

Hope you're having a great trip!

Thanks, it's been great. Food is fantastic, everyone is helpful ... But is it oppressively hot and humid. If you think FL or TX is bad, haven't see anything yet. Thank God for quick dry synthetics.

Was in a mall 8 stories high that would compete with anything in US except Mall of America.

sad...after a month of performances, we had to cancel our final performance of Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum because a second person (a lead) caught covid.

and that was it

Boo.

We saw Girl from the North Country on Saturday and they had eight cast members out. They had to have Anthony Edwards(yes, from ER) perform one of the roles, mostly reading from a script.

Binax at-home video proctor Covid test with Navica app worked great on our way back from Mexico. Saved a bunch of money from what the hotel and local clinics charged.

There wasn't a way to upload result to Alaska Airline app, but quick check in front of check-in line took care of it.

We used that in England for my family of 4 and totally agree. It was super easy

Maryland is definitely in the predicted swell of reported cases, with everyone's working assumption that there are many more unreported cases, either asymptomatic, tested-at-home, or just kept private.

Thus far, we have not had the awful spike in hospital admissions, which in the moment is the most worrisome thing. So, I'm very thankful for that, indirectly suggesting that the latest variants are continuing the path toward being milder, at least in immediate effect.

Getting a handle on longer term symptoms is going to be a challenge. And gaining universal agreement on that will be close to impossible - given the overlap of prior treatment/understanding of ME/CFS and the current skepticism/misinformation about COVID... the overlap of the two will surely be just awful for those afflicted and/or deeply concerned.


So, re-anchoring back to my fear from a few weeks ago: yes the bars are totally back open and packed here. But the hospitals aren't packed, whew.

P
Smart to always have at least one Anthony Edwards on hand for situations like that.

My wife is going to Ireland next week so we bought eMed tests for her. Hopefully I get reimbursed from my carrier eventually. She also has Covid right now

Dola-
Glad you specified which Anthony Edwards. Was going to be annoyed if he was a rare athlete who could act in theatre.