Statgeekery - MattieShoes's Blog

MattieShoes's Blog

Statgeekery

Posted on July 21, 2009 at 07:21 AM.

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I've always been bugged by the fact that QB stats are affected by the game situation. If the team is ahead by a couple scores, the defense has to expect the run, so the QB has the luxury of throwing into run defenses. If nobody is open, they have the luxury of throwing the ball away. When the team is down by a couple scores though, the defense will be playing the pass so players are less likely to be open. They have to hold on to the ball and try and make impossible passes. Their sack rates increase, their interceptions increase, and so on.

For example:
Brady went 398 for 578 for 4806 yards and 50 TDs with only 8 interceptions in 2007.
Lomax went 345 for 560 for 4257 yards and 28 TDs, with 16 interceptions in 1984.

On the surface, Brady's year is light-years better. But Tom Terrific had the benefit of having one of the best teams in history, going 16-0 and leading throughout most of his games in 2007. Lomax was on a struggling 9-7 team with a 17th ranked defense. He spent most of the year passing in less advantageous situations. Their receivers were certainly of a different caliber too. I'm not suggesting Lomax's season was better, but I believe it was closer than the numbers indicate.

To try and counteract this artificial stats benefit strong teams, I wrote a program that examines box scores individually. It looks at scoring by quarter and the order of scoring, and splits the game into five scenarios -- up by more than a TD, up by a TD or less, tied, down by a TD or less, and down by more than a TD. In a blowout, it might look like 80%, 10%, 10%, 0%, 0%. In a back-and-forth game, it might look more like 5%, 25%, 40%, 25%, 5%. Each game is different.

So for 2008, we could look at the 16+ box scores for each team, and each game will be played with different amounts of time in those different score parts. Some curve fitting will come up with different numbers for each situation. By averaging the typical "down by more than a TD" across all 32 teams, we can get expected numbers for an average QB who is losing by more than a TD. Ditto for all the other scenarios.

Now that we have an expected result for an average team in those situations, we can measure whether a team outperformed or underperformed given their situations, passing-wise.

I set it to run every team/year combination from 1960 to present. The numbers represent team passing, so it's sort of a summation of QB, WRs, OL, and to a lesser extent, even quality of running game since that affects passing success too. But I think the results are better than raw stats. Here's the top 10 seasons since 1960

10. 49ers 2000 (1283.2)
Jeff Garcia on a 6-10 team passed for 4278 yards, 31 TDs, and only 10 INTs. He has two of the best receivers in history to throw to in Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens. The team's lack of success appears to be due to abysmal defensive play -- 28th in points allowed, 29th in yards allowed, 31st in first downs allowed, etc. This performance has been almost completely overlooked due to Kurt Warner's amazing 2000 season.

9. 49ers 1970 (1304.0)
John Brodie had a long career but was only a first-team all pro once, in 1970. He led the team to a 10-3-1 record, leading the league in completions, yards, touchdowns, INT%, QB rating, and Sack%. Gene Washington had 53 receptions for 1100 yards and 12 TDs in 14 games, averaging over 20 yards per reception.

8. Eagles 1973 (1361.7)
The Eagles had one of the worst defenses in the league but Roman Gabriel was still able to pass for 3219 yards and 23 TDs with only 12 interceptions. He led the league in completions, attempts, pass yards, touchdowns, and also had the lowest interception percentage in the league. Not bad for a 5-8-1 team, eh?

7. Redskins 1967 (1394.5)
Hall of famer Sonny Jurgenson led this ill-fated Redskins team. He led the league in attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, int%, and QB rating, but it wasn't enough -- The skins finished 5-6-3

6. Rams 2000 (1403.5)
Kurt Warner racked up 3429 yards in only 11 games in 2000, leading the league in comp%, yards/attempt, yards/completion, and yards/game. Trent Green took care of the other five, adding another 2063 yards and 16 touchdowns to the tally. 5492 passing yards in one year!

5. Vikings 2004 (1415.7)
Daunte Culpepper threw for over 4700 yards and 39 TDs in 2004 despite being on a lackluster 8-8 team. They eked their way into the playoffs where they smashed the Packers, throwing for 284 yards and 4 TDs. The Eagles ended their cinderella hopes though.

4. Dolphins 1986 (1444.8)
The 86 Dolphins had no run game and their defense sucked. About the only good thing one can say about em is they had arguably the best quarterback in history. Dan Marino threw for 4746 yards (third behind himself in 1984 and Dan Fouts at the time) and 44 TDs (second behind himself in 1984). The team was ranked 28th in rushing attempts -- The defense KNEW he was going to be passing, and they still couldn't stop him.

3. 49ers 1989 (1731.1)
A season split between two hall of famers... Joe Montana had over 70% completions, over 3500 yards, 26 TDs, and only 8 interceptions. He led the league in yards/game and QB rating. The only reason he didn't lead the league in everything else is because he only played 13 games. Steve Young got playing time in 10 games, starting three. Young had about 70% completions, another thousand yards, and 8 more TDs. Even Steve Bono got in on the action, 4 for 5 with a TD. Jerry Rice and John Taylor both collected over 1000 yards and made the pro-bowl. Montana and Rice were both named first team all pro.

2. Colts 2004 (1941.7)
Peyton Manning's 121.1 QB rating in 2004 is the highest in history. He broke Marino's 48 TD record in the process. 15% of his completions were touchdown passes. He was the NFL MVP. After making the playoffs with a 12-4 record, he threw 27 for 33 for 458 yards and 4 TDs against the Broncos and compiled another 238 yards against the Patriots, but alas, it wasn't to be.

1. Dolphins 1984 (1989.8)
Dan Marino's Sophomore year remains the high-water mark for devestating passing attacks. He led the league in completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, TD%, yards/attempt, yards/game, QB rating, and sack%. He went to the pro bowl, was first-team all pro, and was the NFL MVP. His 5084 passing yards is still the record for yards in a season. His 48 TDs was an NFL record, shattering the old mark of 36. His 108.9 QB rating is still in the top 10 all time.

You might notice a glaring omission in the list... Brady's 2007 season doesn't make the cut. The problem with Patriots 2007 season is that they wasn't really under that pressure to make passes and win the game, at least not until the superbowl, where he failed. My data suggests that even average quarterbacks are quite capable of playing well when they've a commanding lead, so that's who Brady was being compared to. It's 15th all-time with a score of 1183.8. The Neil Lomax season I was comparing it to came in at #31 (1011.5)

Ben Roethlisberger doesn't show up very high for the same reason. He's done well, but he was on a team where doing well really wasn't as difficult.

Others of note:
Steve Young's 49ers 1992 was 11th (1252.1)
Drew Brees' fantastic 5000+ yard season in 2008 is 12th (1201.4)
Dan Fouts first appears at #14 with the 1982 Chargers (1188.7)
Bart Starr appears at #16 with the 1966 Packers (1179.6)
Kenny Stabler shows up at #20 with the 1976 Raiders (1112.39)
Phil Rivers fantastic 2008 season shows up at #21 (1109.2)
Roger Staubach shows up at #27 with the 1979 Cowboys (1068.75)
Fran Tarkenton shows up at #28 with the 1967 Giants (1068.21)
Bert Jones shows up at #30 with the 1976 Colts (1012.68)
Norm Van Brocklin shows up at #32 with the 1960 Eagles (1005.7)

The 1974 Falcons show up as the most inept passing team since 1960. I
44.9% completions, 1781 yards, 4 TDs, 31 INTs, 50 sacks. QB rating 27.8 In one game, they went 7 for 20 for 68 yards, 0 TDs, and 3 INTs. And the best part about it, they actually won that game!